信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 -------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 房价环比走弱，煤焦下行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 20 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货下调，期货持续下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1015 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 845 元/吨(- 7.5)。基差 190 元/吨(+7.5)，9-1 月差-10.5 元/吨（+11）。 矿山开工小幅回落，焦企开工持平。523 家矿山开工率报 89.26%（-0.66），110 家 洗煤厂开工率报 62.08%(-0.34) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The total social financing in April still increased year - on - year, but the structure was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy declining. The external uncertainty caused by the US tariff increase in April may have reduced corporate risk appetite. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector showed a complex trend. In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations [4] - For coking coal, the supply pressure from imported coal persists, mines are not reducing production, and the demand from coke enterprises has weakened again. For coke, the first round of price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the supply - demand gap has widened again, but the demand has a strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectations [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of coking coal is weakly stable, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is 1015 yuan/ton, the active contract is 883 yuan/ton, the basis is 152 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 16 yuan/ton [2] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 mines is 89.92% (+0.18), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.42% (-0.55) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 523 mines is 390.43 million tons (+31.39), the inventory of coal washing plants is 197.28 million tons (+3.39), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 787.21 million tons (+2.42), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 775.17 million tons (-35.11), and the port inventory is 397.81 million tons (-13.97) [2] 3.2 Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The first round of spot price cuts by steel mills has not been implemented, and the futures are moving sideways with a weak bias. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton, the active contract is 1472 yuan/ton, the basis is 78.22 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 26.5 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is decreasing, and demand is continuously increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.05% (-0.38), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.6% (+1.45), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4564 million tons (+0.22) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory across the entire industrial chain is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 65.09 million tons (-1.97), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and the port inventory is 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - In the absence of substantial benefits from supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, the black sector is likely to remain in wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and closely monitor the rebound strength, and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weakening Trend [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the total social financing increased year - on - year, but the structure was mainly supported by bills and government bonds, while the financing demand of the real economy declined. The external uncertainty caused by the US tariff increase in April might have reduced the risk appetite of enterprises. However, the government's leverage increase continued, and subsequent fiscal policies might bring surprises [4]. - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved substantial progress and the tariffs were cancelled, the black sector and the stock market fluctuated widely and then rose steadily during the daytime on the 12th, but fell back at night. The market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, and most funds were shorting on rallies. Without greater positive impacts, the market sentiment was difficult to reverse in the short term [4]. - For coking coal, the spot auction turnover rate continued to decline, the price difference between domestic and foreign ports widened, and the impact of low - priced overseas coal continued. Mines increased production, while coke enterprises reduced production, leading to weaker demand. For coke, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, but it was not implemented yet. The supply - demand gap widened, but the demand was a strong reality with weak expectations [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was 1015 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract was 894.5 yuan/ton (+24), the basis was 140.5 yuan/ton (-24), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 16.5 yuan/ton (-5.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines was 89.92% (+0.18), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.42% (-0.55), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was 75.05% (-0.38) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The refined coal inventory of 523 mines was 390.43 million tons (+31.39), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants was 197.28 million tons (+3.39), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 787.21 million tons (+2.42), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 775.17 million tons (-35.11), and the port inventory was 397.81 million tons (-13.97) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1440 yuan/ton (unchanged), steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, but it was not implemented yet. The active contract was 1482 yuan/ton (+35), the basis was 68.22 yuan/ton (-35), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 26 yuan/ton (+2) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was 75.05% (-0.38). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.6% (+1.45), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons (+0.22) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 65.09 million tons (-1.97), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and the port inventory was 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract, closely monitor the rebound strength, and add positions after confirming the bottom. The market is waiting for supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. Without substantial positive news, the market expectation is difficult to reverse [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a downward bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector's weak performance shows extreme market pessimism. Without significant supply - side or fiscal policy support, the market will likely remain in a sideways - with - downward - bias pattern [4] - For coking coal, the impact of low - price overseas coal continues, mines are increasing production and accumulating inventory, while demand from coke enterprises is weakening. For coke, steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts, with supply decreasing and demand increasing, but the demand outlook is weak [5] - After the sharp decline, coal and coke followed the rebound in the night session on the 13th. In the short term, they are still in a downward trend, with coking coal possibly having a 15% downside in extreme cases. However, the resistance to further decline in the 09 contract is increasing [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Mine production is increasing, with the operating rate of 523 mines at 89.92% (+0.18), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants at 62.42% (-0.55). Coke enterprise production is decreasing, with the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises at 75.05% (-0.38) [2] - The demand for coking coal from coke enterprises is weakening as their coking coal inventory is decreasing [5] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream mines and coal washing plants are accumulating inventory, with 523 mines having 390.43 million tons of clean coal inventory (+31.39) and coal washing plants having 197.28 million tons (+3.39). Downstream, steel mills' inventory is increasing (787.21 million tons, +2.42), while coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing (775.17 million tons, - 35.11), and port inventory is decreasing (397.81 million tons, -13.97) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1015 yuan/ton (-5), the active contract is 870.5 yuan/ton (-19), the basis is 164.5 yuan/ton (+19), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -11 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, with the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises at 75.05% (-0.38). Demand is increasing, with the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills at 91.6% (+1.45) and the daily average pig iron output at 245.64 million tons (+0.22) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - The entire industrial chain is reducing inventory. 230 coke enterprises have 65.09 million tons of inventory (-1.97), 247 steel mills have 671.03 million tons (-4.19), and port inventory is 229.08 million tons (-9.04) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1447 yuan/ton (-24.5), the basis is 103.22 yuan/ton (-+24.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -28 yuan/ton (-0). Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts, which have not yet been implemented [3]