Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and European leaders was unexpectedly interrupted when Trump left to make a 40-minute phone call to Putin, leaving European leaders feeling sidelined [1][3] - European leaders had differing reactions, with some leaving early and others expressing concerns about the appropriateness of discussing negotiations while the conflict was ongoing [3][9] - Trump dismissed the idea that a ceasefire was a prerequisite for negotiations, contrasting with European leaders' views, which indicated a growing rift between the U.S. and Europe on the approach to the Ukraine conflict [3][4][7] Group 2 - Ukraine's President Zelensky softened his stance, agreeing to meet with Putin first before a trilateral meeting, indicating a shift in Ukraine's negotiation strategy under U.S. influence [4][6] - The U.S. is positioning itself to lead the negotiation process, potentially marginalizing European influence despite their significant financial contributions to Ukraine's support [6][8] - The dynamics of U.S.-Russia relations appear to be improving, while tensions between the U.S. and Europe are escalating, suggesting a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape regarding the Ukraine conflict [7][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, but the expectation for the number of rate cuts for the whole year has decreased from 3 to 2 [3][29][30]. - The overseas stock market generally rose this week, with small - cap stocks in the US and the Japanese stock market performing strongly. The US dollar weakened, the yield of 2Y US Treasury bonds declined while the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. Gold and crude oil prices dropped [1][13][14][15]. - Trump's policies focused on tariffs and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation this week. The scope of steel and aluminum tariffs was expanded, and the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict made progress [5][33][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks were boosted by the expectation of a rate cut in September, and small - cap stocks had larger gains. The Japanese stock market was strong due to the easing of the tariff situation and strong economic data. As of August 15, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 0.94%, 1.74%, and 0.81% respectively; the German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index rose 0.81%, 0.47%, 3.73%, and 0.49% respectively [13][16]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar fell slightly this week. The release of US CPI data in July and the statement of the US Treasury Secretary both contributed to the decline of the US dollar index. As of August 15, the US dollar index dropped 0.43%, and the euro, yen, and RMB rose 0.54%, 0.39%, and 0.02% against the US dollar respectively [14][16]. - **Interest Rates**: The yield of 2Y US Treasury bonds declined, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. The probability of a rate cut in September increased, causing the 2Y yield to fall, while concerns about stagflation in the long - term led to an increase in the 10Y yield. As of August 15, the 2Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 6bp [14][16]. - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil prices dropped this week. Gold fell due to Trump's statement on gold tariffs and the release of PPI data. Crude oil prices declined as the Russia - Ukraine situation became more optimistic. As of August 15, COMEX gold and silver fell 1.98% and 1.33% respectively, WTI crude oil fell 0.33%, and COMEX copper rose 0.56% [15][16]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The probability of a rate cut in September increased, but the expectation for the number of rate cuts for the whole year decreased from 3 to 2. The limited impact of tariffs on inflation in July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut, while the high - than - expected PPI data and the hawkish stance of some Fed officials reduced the annual rate - cut expectation [29][30]. - More hawkish Fed officials spoke this week, expressing different views on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts. As of August 16, the market expected a 92.1% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September, and expected 2 rate cuts this year [30]. - Attention should be paid to Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, which may be a key window for him to adjust the forward - looking guidance [31]. - Australia cut interest rates by 25bp this week, the third rate cut this year [32]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Tariffs**: Trump expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and said he would impose tariffs on semiconductors in the next two weeks. The US and China suspended the implementation of the 24% tariff for 90 days again [33][35][37]. - **Russia - Ukraine Negotiation**: Trump and Putin met in Alaska on August 15, and Trump will meet with Zelensky on August 18. If everything goes well, a tri - partite meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [35][38]. - Trump's net satisfaction rate declined. As of August 15, his net satisfaction rate was - 6.0% [35]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - As of August 15, the bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website remained at 12%. The market expected 2.2 rate cuts in 2025, down from 2.3 a week ago [39]. - Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow by 1.55% in 2025 and the eurozone economy to grow by 1.1% in 2025, both higher than the previous week's forecasts [40]. - The Fed models raised their immediate forecasts for the US Q3 economic growth rate. The New York Fed Nowcast model raised the forecast to 2.06%, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model raised it to 2.55% [42]. - The US economic activity cooled, while the German economic activity rebounded. As of the week of August 9, the US WEI index decreased by 0.09, and the German WAI index increased by 0.07 [47]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased more than expected. As of the week of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims was 22.4 million, lower than the expected 22.8 million. The number of continued jobless claims decreased to 195.3 million as of the week of August 2 [49]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be better than the same period last year, and railway transportation volume increased year - on - year. The real estate market activity picked up, with the 30 - year mortgage rate falling and the mortgage application and refinancing activity indexes rising significantly [54]. 3.4 Production - The US production maintained a high level of prosperity, with the crude steel output and refinery capacity utilization rate higher than the same period last year [61]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates declined. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) and the container freight indexes of Chinese ports all decreased [64][66]. 3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices slightly declined, and the inflation expectation in the swap market decreased slightly this week [68]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial pressure decreased this week, with the OFR US financial stress index and the credit spread declining [71]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), key overseas events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, US real - estate data, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation [76].

（文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间7月23日，俄罗斯和乌克兰在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行了第三轮直接谈判。俄乌仅就换俘协议达 成共识。俄称停火立场相距甚远，但同意继续讨论；乌方释放停火信号，提议举行领导人会晤。会谈 中，俄方建议，俄乌成立政治、人文和军事问题三个线上工作组，乌方承诺考虑这一建议。 当地时间8月13日，俄罗斯外交部表示，基辅尚未对伊斯坦布尔第三轮会谈后宣布的组建工作组提议作 出正式回应。俄方表示，莫斯科愿意等待工作组的组建。 ...

Market Overview - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of $3400 per ounce before declining to around $3344 per ounce, indicating a successful short position strategy [1][5]. - Various factors influenced the fluctuations in spot gold prices, including U.S. economic data weakness and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [5]. Technical Analysis - Daily Chart: The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices operating near the middle band. The MACD indicator shows a narrowing golden cross, while the RSI indicates an oversold rebound [5]. - 4-Hour Chart: The Bollinger Bands are also expanding, with prices above the lower band. The MACD shows a death cross, and the RSI indicates an oversold condition, suggesting a clear downtrend with key support at $3300 and resistance at $3400 [5]. - 1-Hour Chart: Similar to the 4-hour analysis, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, and the MACD shows a narrowing death cross. The RSI indicates a potential oversold rebound, with support at $3300 and resistance at $3400 [5]. Future Trading Strategies - For bullish positions, aggressive traders may consider entering near the $3300 support level, while conservative traders may wait for a more stable entry around $3270-$3280 [7]. - For bearish positions, aggressive traders should look to sell near the $3400 resistance, while conservative traders may target the $3445-$3435 range for shorting [7]. Futures Market Insights - Shanghai Gold Futures: Influenced by international gold prices and RMB exchange rates, with support at 770 RMB/kg and resistance around 775 RMB/kg [8]. - Rongtong Gold: Trading between 780.05 and 782.05 RMB/kg, with a previous high of 782.08 RMB/kg and potential support at 780-779 RMB/kg [8]. - Accumulated Gold: Suitable for long-term investment, with short-term fluctuations, targeting around 785 RMB/kg [8]. - Gold T+D: Exhibiting a volatile trend, with resistance at 785 RMB/kg and support at 780 RMB/kg [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. Middle East envoy, Wittekov, is expected to visit Moscow this weekend, with hopes for breakthroughs in negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2] - Trump's recent sanctions and tariffs on Russia are described as "devastating," aiming to cut off Russia's ability to fund the war [1] - The visit coincides with the approaching deadline set by Trump for a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which is August 8 [1][3] Group 2 - Russian President Putin emphasizes the necessity of dialogue to resolve the Ukraine crisis, stating that all disappointment stems from overly high expectations [2][3] - The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions and tariffs is questioned, as trade partners like Brazil refuse to comply without UN Security Council authorization [3] - Ukraine's military is under significant pressure from Russian forces, with recent advances reported, indicating a deteriorating situation for Ukraine [4]

Group 1 - The core discussion among Ukrainian President Zelensky, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Umerov, and Chief of the President's Office Yermak focused on the progress of negotiations with Russia and preparations for a new round of talks [1] - A key topic highlighted by Zelensky is the exchange of prisoners of war, with an agreement reached to exchange 1,200 prisoners, and the list for the exchange is currently being drafted [2] - Umerov reported on communication with Russian representatives, indicating ongoing dialogue [3] Group 2 - Yermak provided updates on interactions with key partners assisting Ukraine's diplomatic efforts [4] - The agenda for the Supreme Commander-in-Chief meeting was established, focusing on winter preparedness for the energy system and critical infrastructure, strengthening Ukraine's air defense capabilities, and assessing the effectiveness of long-range strikes on Russian military logistics [4] - Relevant departments are auditing the execution of decisions made by the National Defense Council and the General Staff [4]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin expressed a desire to continue dialogue with Ukraine, indicating patience if Ukraine currently sees no need for contact [2][4] - The third round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on July 23 in Istanbul, resulting in positive outcomes such as the exchange of deceased soldiers' remains and prisoners [4] - Putin emphasized the necessity of dialogue to peacefully resolve issues and reiterated the importance of addressing the root causes of the current crisis [4] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to provocative statements from Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev, although he did not specify whether these submarines were equipped with nuclear or conventional weapons [5][8] - Trump previously threatened severe tariffs on Russia if a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine was not reached within 50 days, and he considered shortening the deadline for this agreement [7] - Medvedev warned Trump to remember Russia's ultimate nuclear strike capabilities, asserting that the timing of negotiations should not be dictated by the U.S. [8]

Core Points - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov announced that Russia had proposed the establishment of a working group on political and military issues to Ukraine and is currently awaiting a response [1] - Lavrov indicated that substantial discussions between Russia and the US regarding the Ukraine issue have taken place since the beginning of the year, resulting in some progress, and that Ukraine agreed to resume talks in Istanbul due to President Trump's insistence [1] - Lavrov expressed that Russia agrees with the US viewpoint that direct military confrontation between Russia and the US should be avoided, and welcomed continued dialogue based on honesty and mutual respect [1] Additional Insights - President Putin, during a meeting with Belarusian President Lukashenko, stated that if Ukraine believes it is not the right time for negotiations, Russia is willing to wait [1] - Putin noted that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have garnered significant attention and expectations from various parties, and he holds a positive view of the talks held in Istanbul [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed on his official social media platform that Ukraine has taken note of Russia's latest statements and is willing to hold leader-level talks if Russia genuinely seeks peace [1]

Core Viewpoint - The conversation between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau focused on military aid to Ukraine, enhancing air defense capabilities, sanctions against Russia, and anti-corruption legislation in Ukraine [1] Group 1: Military Aid and Defense - Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for military equipment, particularly the enhancement of air defense systems and an increase in missile quantities to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities [1] - The discussion included the recent negotiations held in Istanbul regarding the ongoing conflict, highlighting Ukraine's commitment to achieving a ceasefire [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Engagement - Ukraine's delegation reiterated the necessity of a ceasefire and is awaiting a response from Russia regarding proposals for high-level talks between leaders [1]

Core Points - The third round of direct negotiations between representatives of Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul on the evening of the 23rd, lasting approximately one hour [1] - No breakthroughs were achieved on key issues such as a meeting between the two countries' leaders or a ceasefire, but progress was made on humanitarian issues, with an agreement to continue the exchange of captured personnel [1]