Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In a high - volatility bond market environment, balancing offense and defense is a challenge for investors. Although credit bonds lack effective coupon protection and have lower liquidity, coupon - type assets still have value for increased holdings. By decomposing the comprehensive return of credit bonds into holding return and capital gain and conducting stress tests on individual bonds, investors can adjust their allocation strategies [2][10]. - The increase in bond market volatility places higher requirements on investors' liability - side management and trading timing capabilities [3][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Individual Bond Stress Test Tool - **Bond Market Volatility Background**: Since last September, the bond market has experienced multiple fluctuations. After the "924" new policy impulse, it entered a cycle of redemptions and sharp declines. In November, with the release of loose capital signals, it entered a pre - emptive trading phase. After the New Year, the bond market was affected by factors such as tight capital in January, strong equity performance and improved economic fundamentals in February, and volatile equity trends and tariff factors in March. As of last Friday, the proportion of outstanding credit bonds with yields below 2.2% rose to 71%, and those below 2.0% reached 38%, leading to high volatility in the bond market [9]. - **Analysis of Credit Bonds**: Credit bonds currently lack effective coupon protection and have lower liquidity than interest - rate bonds. The window period for market trends is short under high volatility. To balance liquidity and return enhancement, coupon - type assets are still worth increasing. Decomposing the comprehensive return of credit bonds into holding return and capital gain can help judge entry and exit points [2][10]. - **Stress Test of Urban Investment Bonds**: In April, the absolute yield of urban investment bonds dropped to a low level. Assuming purchase at the current coupon rate and holding for two weeks or three months, in the two - week holding scenario, low - coupon urban investment bonds' comprehensive return can hardly withstand capital gain losses. In the three - month holding scenario, for a 50bp yield increase, the comprehensive return of 1 - year urban investment bonds is still positive; for a 20bp increase, some AA and AA(2) term varieties can also achieve coupon coverage of losses [2][10]. - **Stress Test of Bank Sub - debt**: The stress test results of bank sub - debt are less favorable. Whether holding for two weeks or three months, even when facing a 20bp yield increase, the comprehensive return of Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bank bonds is difficult to maintain in the positive range [3][13].

往往不是系统不够完善，而是我们不能严格执行，该入场的时候不敢入场，该止损的时候不去止损，太多太多的操作不是按照交易原则来做的，而是被市 场情绪所裹胁的。 ——笔记哥《交易》 今日资金面进一步紧张，民营企业家座谈会消息落地，股市小幅上涨，利率明显上行。 周末潘行长表示中国经济的基本面强劲，人民币汇率基本保持稳定。早盘债市情绪偏谨慎，10Y国债利率小幅高开1BP左右在1.655%，最高上至1.659%， 后小幅回落。上午股市震荡，午间民营企业家座谈会消息落地，午后股市小幅上涨，资金面持续紧张，10Y国债利率上行至1.67%附近。 -------------------------- 今天座谈会消息落地，对债市影响较为可控，毕竟上周五已被"剧透"。当前债市命门依然被资金面拿捏，短端选手继续在ICU躺平，连长端"淡定哥"也被 拖进急诊室。债农们只能祈祷明天为对冲MLF到期，"妈妈再爱我一次"。 座谈会成为今日份欢乐源泉：一是，人类的"后脑勺识别"技能碾压了只会"人脸识别"的AI。二是，重要的不是谁去了，而是谁没去，于是BAT里百度大跌 7%。三是，韦尔股份老板因坐姿太叼被股民批评"殿前失仪"。 ----------- ...