步入两会时间： 需要关注什么？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月28日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 步入两会时间：需要关注什么？下周两会关键节点密集排布，除了政府工作报告之外，其他值得关注的例行事项安排如 下，背后将释放前瞻性政策信号：一、总书记参加地方代表团审议，讲话主旨聚焦哪些方面？二、总书记看望的政协委 员所属哪些领域？三、哪些部委走上"部长采访"通道，回应社会关切？此外，"十五五"规划《纲要》的"出炉"是 本届两会重大看点，建议重点关注《纲要》相对于《建议》的边际变化。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，在"史上最长假期"与气候偏暖的共同催化下，春节前后全社会跨区域人员流动总 量及单日峰值均刷新历史纪录，大宗商品消费"马力"相对有限，春节档票房收入和观影人次均处于历年偏低位置；宏 观政策方面，地方"新春第一会"呈现出三大新部署："质"的考核（即正确政绩观），"质"的抓手（即优化营商环 境），"质"的方向（即科技创新与产业升级）。 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：2026年2月PMI（3月4日）；全国两会（关注总理作政府工作报告、审议2026年财政 ...

会议认为，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。在党中央领导下 科学编制实施"十五五"规划纲要，努力巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项，对于推动我国经 济社会高质量发展，为基本实现社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的基础，具有重大意义。 会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要 着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大新动能，加快高水平科技自立自强。持续深化重点领域改革，进 一步扩大高水平对外开放，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动新型城镇化和区域协调发展。更大力度保障和 改善民生，加快推动全面绿色转型，加强重点领域风险防范化解和安全能力建设。要加强政府自身建 设，牢固树立和践行正确政绩观。 中共中央政治局2月27日召开会议，讨论国务院拟提请第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议审查的中 华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案稿和审议的《政府工作报告》稿。中共中 央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，"十四五"时期我国发展历程极不寻常、极不平凡。面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国 内改革发展稳定任务，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领 ...

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Group 1 - The meeting of the Standing Committee of the 16th Municipal People's Congress discussed the government work report, the draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and budget reports [1] - A total of 68 proposals were submitted by more than ten representatives, which will be reviewed by the relevant specialized committees after the meeting [1] - The meeting approved the draft resolutions regarding the government work report, the 14th Five-Year Plan, the annual plan, and the annual budget, which will be submitted for further review [1] Group 2 - The meeting also discussed the candidate list for elections and decided to submit it for voting [2] - The draft list of supervisors for the election was reviewed and will be submitted for voting [3] - A work plan for the constitutional oath ceremony was presented and approved [3]

Core Viewpoint - The South Lake District is advancing its 14th Five-Year Plan and preparing for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on economic and social development, with a strong emphasis on public participation and feedback in the planning process [1][2]. Group 1: Planning and Review Process - The Finance and Economic Committee reviewed multiple reports related to the 15th Five-Year Plan, including drafts for economic and social development plans and budget reports for 2026 [1]. - A total of 126 suggestions were collected from the public through various channels, indicating a proactive approach to incorporating citizen feedback into the planning process [2]. - The committee acknowledged the stable economic development in the district despite complex domestic and international challenges, laying a solid foundation for the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Goals and Implementation - The draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan outlines development goals, key tasks, and implementation paths, taking into account current economic conditions and policy changes [2]. - The expected goals in the economic and social development plan are aligned with the objectives of the 15th Five-Year Plan, ensuring that the budget reflects the relationship between operational support, improving livelihoods, and promoting development [2]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of focused discussions on growth stabilization, innovation, reform, and improving people's livelihoods to ensure a strong start for the 15th Five-Year Plan [3].

Group 1 - The representatives at the Shanghai People's Congress are reviewing the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan, acknowledging past achievements and providing suggestions for future work [1] - Lin Zhongqin emphasized the need to develop advantageous industries and new productive forces, aiming to enhance the city's international economic status and global influence [1] - Yang Zhijian highlighted the importance of the shipping industry in the next five years, advocating for digitalization and green transformation, including the supply of clean fuels like LNG and methanol [1] Group 2 - Representatives are focusing on livelihood issues, with Zhang Tingting suggesting the need for precise planning of elderly care facilities based on demand during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] - Liu Ke proposed enhancing Shanghai's cultural soft power by developing the "Suhang Red Industrial Memory Corridor" and promoting new business formats along the riverside [2] - Wu Zuqiang noted the importance of improving the quality of school meals and suggested establishing a traceability mechanism for student lunches [2] Group 3 - Wang Hong expressed hope for increased funding for social security to improve the quality of life for citizens, despite a tight fiscal balance [3]

Core Points - The meeting of the 14th People's Congress of Guangxi Autonomous Region focused on reviewing and approving various government reports and plans [2][3] Group 1: Government Work Report - The meeting included a written explanation regarding the modifications to the government work report presented by the regional chairman Wei Tao [2] - A draft resolution concerning the government work report was proposed for review by the representative groups [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Development Plans - The meeting reviewed and approved the examination results report of the 15th Five-Year Plan outline for national economic and social development [2] - A draft resolution regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan outline was also proposed for review by the representative groups [2] Group 3: Budget Execution and Plans - The meeting reviewed and approved the examination results report on the execution of the 2025 national economic and social development plan and the draft plan for 2026 [2] - A draft resolution concerning the execution of the 2025 budget and the budget plan for 2026 was proposed for review by the representative groups [2] Group 4: Candidate Recommendations - The meeting included an explanation regarding the candidate recommendation lists, with a decision to submit the draft candidate lists for deliberation by the representative groups [3]

Group 1 - The representatives at the Shanghai People's Congress are reviewing the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan, acknowledging the achievements of the past five years and providing suggestions for future work [1] - Lin Zhongqin suggested developing advantageous industries and new productive forces to enhance the city's capabilities and international influence, emphasizing the importance of improving higher education quality [1] - Yang Zhijian highlighted the need for the shipping industry to play a foundational and strategic role, advocating for digitalization and green transformation in the sector [1] Group 2 - Representatives are focusing on livelihood issues, with Zhang Tingting proposing a precise layout of facilities based on elderly care service needs and advocating for resource allocation towards healthcare for the elderly [2] - Liu Ke emphasized enhancing Shanghai's cultural soft power through the development of the "One River, One River" waterfront tourism area and revitalizing industrial heritage along the Suzhou River [2] - Wu Zuqiang noted the importance of a quality improvement project for school meals and suggested establishing a traceability mechanism for student lunch quality [2][3] Group 3 - Tian Chunhua recommended deepening the reform of financial management for scientific research projects and expanding the pilot implementation of the package system [3] - Wang Hong expressed hope for increased funding for social security to improve the quality of life for citizens, despite tight fiscal conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu Municipal People's Congress approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" for economic and social development, aligning with national strategies and local development needs, aiming for significant progress in modernization and quality of life improvements [1][2] Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" comprehensively implements the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and subsequent plenary sessions, aligning with provincial and municipal directives [1] - The plan outlines guiding ideologies, basic requirements, target indicators, specific tasks, implementation measures, and major projects for the next five years and beyond [1] - The plan is seen as a programmatic document for the city's economic and social development, responding to citizens' aspirations and national strategic orientations [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, emphasizing high-quality development and innovation [2] - The plan aims to establish Chengdu as a national economic center, technology innovation hub, and international consumption center, among other roles, while promoting comprehensive development and common prosperity [2] - The strategy includes a commitment to sustainable urban development, aiming to create a park city demonstration area that embodies new development concepts [2]

Group 1 - The meeting of the Yunnan Provincial People's Congress was held to discuss the government work report and the draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan, along with budget reports [1] - The meeting had 91 members expected to attend, with 83 present, meeting the legal quorum [1] - Resolutions regarding the government work report and the 14th Five-Year Plan were approved and will be submitted for further discussion and voting [1] Group 2 - The meeting included reports from the Provincial People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee on the 14th Five-Year Plan and the execution of the 2025 economic development plan [1] - The resolutions concerning the 14th Five-Year Plan and budget reports were also approved for further discussion [1] - A report on the candidate list for various positions was presented and approved for discussion among the delegations [1]