——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月28日 步入两会时间： 需要关注什么？ 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一致。 1 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 步入两会时间：需要关注什么？下周两会关键节点密集排布，除了政府工作报告之外，其他值得关注的例行事项安排如 下，背后将释放前瞻性政策信号：一、总书记参加地方代表团审议，讲话主旨聚焦哪些方面？二、总书记看望的政协委 员所属哪些领域？三、哪些部委走上"部长采访"通道，回应社会关切？此外，"十五五"规划《纲要》的"出炉"是 本届两会重大看点，建议重点关注《纲要》相对于《建议》的边际变化。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，在"史上最长假期"与气候偏暖的共同催化下，春节前后全社会跨区域人员流动总 量及单日峰值均刷新历史纪录，大宗商品消费"马力"相对有限，春节档票房收入和观影人次均处于历年偏低位置；宏 观政策方面，地方"新春第一会"呈现出三大新部署："质"的考核（即正确政绩观），"质"的抓手（即优化营商环 ...

步入两会时间： 需要关注什么？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月28日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 步入两会时间：需要关注什么？下周两会关键节点密集排布，除了政府工作报告之外，其他值得关注的例行事项安排如 下，背后将释放前瞻性政策信号：一、总书记参加地方代表团审议，讲话主旨聚焦哪些方面？二、总书记看望的政协委 员所属哪些领域？三、哪些部委走上"部长采访"通道，回应社会关切？此外，"十五五"规划《纲要》的"出炉"是 本届两会重大看点，建议重点关注《纲要》相对于《建议》的边际变化。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，在"史上最长假期"与气候偏暖的共同催化下，春节前后全社会跨区域人员流动总 量及单日峰值均刷新历史纪录，大宗商品消费"马力"相对有限，春节档票房收入和观影人次均处于历年偏低位置；宏 观政策方面，地方"新春第一会"呈现出三大新部署："质"的考核（即正确政绩观），"质"的抓手（即优化营商环 境），"质"的方向（即科技创新与产业升级）。 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：2026年2月PMI（3月4日）；全国两会（关注总理作政府工作报告、审议2026年财政 ...

Economic Overview - The report by KPMG indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the initial target growth rate [1] - Industrial production is expected to improve steadily, with manufacturing value-added growth of 6.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] Consumption Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a decline in retail sales in the fourth quarter, the service consumption maintains strong resilience, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.5%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the previous three quarters [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, marking the first annual negative growth since records began [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize in early 2026 due to fiscal support, while manufacturing investment may show marginal improvement as technology innovation and industrial upgrades are prioritized [3] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, driven by trade partnerships with regions such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, contributing 5.0 percentage points to export growth [4] - High-end manufacturing categories, such as integrated circuits and new energy products, are expected to be the core growth engines for exports [4] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasizes higher quality economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain a stable expansion, and a fiscal deficit rate around 4% [5] - Policies will focus on boosting domestic demand and optimizing supply, with increased support for projects aimed at enhancing consumption and lowering financing barriers for private enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's news conference highlighted the implementation of the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", emphasizing Tianjin's role in enhancing regional collaboration and development with Beijing and Hebei [1][3]. Group 1: Plan Implementation - Tianjin will leverage its advantages in location, port facilities, talent, industry, urban-rural spatial resources, and public services to fully implement the plan [1][3]. - The plan includes integrating Tianjin's Wuqing District into the commuting circle and the entire city into a functional zone, aiming for high-quality development of the Beijing-Tianjin region [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Industry Development - The plan aims to accelerate the establishment of a national advanced manufacturing R&D base, a northern international shipping core area, and a financial innovation operation demonstration zone [4]. - It emphasizes deepening technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and urban renewal to support the construction of a world-class city cluster in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [4]. Group 3: Regional Cooperation - The plan promotes high-quality regional integration by enhancing commuting guarantees and facilitating the integration of production, transportation, and urban development [4]. - It aims to expand the scope of cross-provincial government services and mutual recognition of qualifications to provide better public services for businesses and citizens [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent refinancing optimization measures introduced by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, aimed at simplifying processes, supporting quality enterprises, and enhancing regulation to ensure that refinancing serves the real economy and technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Refinancing Optimization Measures - The new measures are designed to support high-quality companies by expediting the review process for those with good governance and high recognition, while also allowing unprofitable tech companies to have more flexible financing intervals [1][2]. - The measures emphasize the importance of directing funds towards main business operations, with strict regulations to prevent misuse of raised funds and to hold companies accountable for their disclosures [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Responsibilities - The reforms aim to balance support for enterprises with stringent oversight, ensuring that every financing effort is effectively utilized for growth rather than speculative activities [2]. - The article highlights the need for continuous refinement of rules by exchanges, a shift in mindset for companies to prioritize returns over mere financing, and the responsibility of intermediaries to act as gatekeepers in the market [2]. Group 3: Impact on the Capital Market - The optimization of refinancing is expected to address immediate needs of companies while also stabilizing long-term market confidence, facilitating orderly capital flow towards quality enterprises and innovation [2]. - The article underscores that a well-functioning capital market relies on the synergy between investment and financing, ultimately serving the real economy [2].

Core Insights - The private equity fund industry in China reached a record high of 22.15 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, marking a significant growth from 19.91 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [1][2][3] - The number and scale of newly registered private equity products have been consistently increasing, indicating a positive trend for the industry [1][2][3] Growth of Private Equity Funds - The total scale of private equity funds grew by over 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a notable increase in the fourth quarter where the scale surpassed 22 trillion yuan [2][3] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of new registered products rose from 1,389 in October (670.10 billion yuan) to 2,087 in December (989 billion yuan) [2][3] Factors Driving Growth - The growth is attributed to both internal and external factors, including a steady recovery of the macro economy and sufficient market liquidity [3] - Capital market reforms and the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange have expanded exit channels and investment opportunities for private equity funds [3] - The performance of the A-share market has improved, attracting institutional investments and increasing the allocation of equity assets by residents in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Industry Development Outlook - The number of private equity fund managers decreased from 20,300 at the beginning of 2025 to 19,200 by the end of the year, indicating a trend of "survival of the fittest" within the industry [4] - The number of private equity institutions managing over 100 billion yuan increased from 91 to 113 in 2025, with further growth to 118 by January 26, 2026 [4] Future Trends - The number of existing private equity institutions is expected to continue decreasing, while the total scale and quality of private equity funds will improve [5] - The internationalization of private equity institutions is anticipated to accelerate, with more funds entering the domestic market and institutions expanding cross-border investment capabilities [5] - Continuous innovation in strategies and products is expected, with a focus on sustainable excess returns and differentiated strategies [5]

Core Insights - Public funds continue to focus on technology growth and high-end manufacturing, while also reallocating to consumer and financial leaders with returning valuations [1][14] - The structure of holdings indicates a significant increase in positions in AI computing, semiconductor equipment, and resource sectors, while reducing exposure to batteries, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [14] Group 1: Fund Holdings Overview - As of Q4 2025, public fund holdings data shows that technology growth and high-end manufacturing remain core investment directions, with traditional industry leaders and some cyclical stocks also maintaining high allocation levels [1] - The top 50 heavy stocks include major players in technology sectors such as communication, AI, and electronics, reflecting institutional confidence in technological innovation and industrial upgrades [2][3] - Notable stocks like Ningde Times, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Zijin Mining are held by over a thousand funds, indicating strong consensus among institutions on these targets [4] Group 2: Increases in Holdings - The increase in holdings is prominently seen in technology stocks, with Zhongji Xuchuang receiving over 22.6 billion yuan in fund increases, ranking first, followed by Xinyi Sheng with approximately 9.6 billion yuan [5][6] - Traditional sectors also saw significant increases, with China Ping An gaining over 10.5 billion yuan, and other blue-chip stocks like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home returning to substantial increase lists [5] - Resource stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum also experienced collective increases, reflecting high enthusiasm for non-ferrous and energy metal sectors amid global manufacturing recovery expectations [5] Group 3: Decreases in Holdings - Certain stocks in the consumer electronics and OEM sectors, including Industrial Fulian and Lixun Precision, faced collective reductions, indicating a cautious stance on their growth prospects [8] - The internal structure of the new energy vehicle supply chain showed differentiation, with battery leaders like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy being reduced [8] - Pharmaceutical stocks like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec also saw significant reductions due to industry policy uncertainties and valuation pressures [8] Group 4: New Entrants in Holdings - A number of new stocks have entered the fund's heavy holdings, characterized by small to mid-cap sizes and high growth expectations, covering advanced manufacturing and industrial upgrade sectors [11][12] - Notable new entrants include Chaojie Co. and Guocheng Mining, which have garnered attention from multiple funds, indicating potential focus areas for institutional investment [11][12]

Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and industrial upgrading [2] - The company will continue to monitor industry development trends [2] - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness through research and technology [2]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic moderate recovery lays a foundation for the banking industry in 2026, driven by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will boost credit growth [1] - Technological innovation and industrial upgrading are identified as core themes, pushing banks towards high value-added sectors [1] - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, with further narrowing projected to be within 5 basis points, potentially marking the bottom in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Fee income is anticipated to rebound through volume compensating for price adjustments amid changes in household wealth management structures [1] - Overall asset quality remains stable, with low non-performing loan ratios in corporate lines, while retail lines are still in a risk exposure phase [1] - The demand for high-dividend assets from insurance capital is increasing, highlighting the attractiveness of stable state-owned banks [1] Group 3 - The Financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects listed companies involved in banking, insurance, and securities to reflect the overall performance of financial-related listed companies [1] - The 180 Financial Index focuses on large and medium-sized financial enterprises, offering high market coverage and liquidity, thus providing a comprehensive representation of the financial market's overall trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to regional development strategies and focusing on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to support the construction of the Greater Bay Area International Technology Innovation Center [1] Group 1 - The company's subsidiary in Shenzhen is committed to integrating into regional collaborative development mechanisms [1] - The company is exploring technology finance support and promoting digital and green transformation [1]