Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in hot metal production, and the overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue the high - level oscillation rhythm [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures adjusted weakly within the day, closing at 806.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 379,000 lots, the open interest was 414,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.351 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, dropped 3 to 796 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 676 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.3 (-2.45) US dollars/ton. The swap price fell from the high, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 829.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.6 yuan/ton, and the basis widened. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 20.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and there is still room for recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was announced, raising the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries, adding indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The Iranian geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show a loose supply, an increase in hot metal production on the demand side, and a decline in port inventory with a transfer to downstream. The overall fundamentals are weak. Under the dual disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate at a high level [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "stagflation" concern has slightly eased, and major asset classes have rebounded. However, due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term [1]. - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to impact the financial market. Trump's statement about peace talks with Iran led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes, but Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US on the 24th. This statement can somewhat ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk [1]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. - The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macro - The Iran - geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market. Trump's statement on peace talks led to a sharp decline in crude oil on the evening of the 23rd and a rebound in major asset classes. But on the 24th, Iran officials denied direct negotiations with the US. Although Trump's statement cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade, it can ease the market's concern about the "stagflation" risk to some extent [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" continues the "14th Five - Year" indicator framework, raises the target for the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds relevant indicators, and improves relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is stable, and external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag of the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation faces large uncertain fluctuations, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial**: Stock index futures show a shrinking - volume rebound, index options' implied volatility falls, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. Treasury bond futures price in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of bonds warms up. All are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a post - oversold repair - type rebound in the short term, but need to be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. They are expected to be volatile [4]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line has decreased month - on - month, and the spot market has declined. It is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by repeated geopolitical conflicts, the market is expected to be volatile. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore fluctuates at a high level [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. For example, aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and nickel is expected to be strongly volatile [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical sector continues to fluctuate at a high level. For example, crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and methanol fluctuates within a range [5]. - **Agriculture**: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to weaken. Natural rubber rebounds slightly, and synthetic rubber fluctuates at a high level. Cotton fluctuates within a range [5]. 3.5 Financial Market and Industry Index Fluctuations - **Financial Market Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, the stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, while the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different trends. The US dollar index fell, and the US and Chinese bond yields also changed [7]. - **Industry Index Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index rose, such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel. However, the petroleum and petrochemical industry fell [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil rose slightly, while NYMEX natural gas and ICE UK natural gas fell. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed different trends [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodity Fluctuations**: On March 24, 2026, most domestic commodities showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, gold and silver rose significantly, while crude oil and fuel oil fell significantly [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillation. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in molten iron production. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downside space [2][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 824 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 220,000 lots, the open interest was 446,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.083 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 810, and the short - term pressure above is around 830 [1] - Spot price: For port spot mainstream varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder was at 798 (unchanged), Super Special powder was at 677 (unchanged), and the main swap was at 108.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot price remained unchanged [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 831.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 7.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 33.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its possible impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The molten iron production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for the recovery of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was released. On the basis of continuing the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries was raised, and new indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy were added. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4]

Macroeconomy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes responding to uncertainties with high-quality development, aiming for GDP growth within a reasonable range while focusing on structural optimization and quality improvement [4] - The plan highlights the importance of people's well-being, with social indicators taking precedence in the development goals [4] - The ongoing Middle East conflict is identified as a significant uncertainty affecting the global economy, with energy import dependence being a crucial variable [6] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of 5.4% since July 2025, driven by strong external demand and a narrative of "de-dollarization" [8] Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines major strategic tasks and projects, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and addressing complex changes in the development environment [4] - The plan consists of over 70,000 words, structured into 18 sections, 62 chapters, and 192 articles, indicating a comprehensive approach to future economic and social development [4] - The government work report emphasizes "future industries," marking the second time this focus has been included in the five-year plan, suggesting a long-term investment opportunity as the industry matures [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index by over 10% [15]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are likely to benefit aluminum prices, while the value of gold as an investment is becoming increasingly apparent [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery across various metals, including copper and aluminum, amidst ongoing supply chain challenges [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to optimize the steel industry, promoting high-quality production and reducing excess capacity, which may enhance steel demand in infrastructure and construction sectors [8]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Sector - The aluminum prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME aluminum rising by 4.0% to $3,520 per ton, and SHFE aluminum increasing by 1.0% to ¥24,960 per ton [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing impact of Middle Eastern supply issues and the seasonal recovery in demand [7]. Copper Sector - The copper market is experiencing slight inventory accumulation, with LME copper prices at $12,758 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resource reserves, such as Zijin Mining and China Gold International [11]. Precious Metals - The report notes a decline in gold prices, with SHFE gold at ¥1,133.0 per gram and London spot gold at $5,018.1 per ounce, indicating a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% and 2.4% respectively [7]. - It suggests that the current volatility in gold prices may stabilize as market conditions improve [7]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 15.5% week-on-week, with the price reaching ¥1,045,000 per ton [7]. - The report indicates potential growth in export demand for non-restricted rare earth products due to new regulations [7]. Steel Sector - The report notes a week-on-week increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices rising by 1.7% and 2.0% respectively [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive demand for steel through infrastructure projects and urban development [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the aluminum sector such as Shenhuo Group and China Aluminum, as well as steel companies like Baosteel and Shougang [11].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of a stable and resilient capital market to support China's modernization and financial strength, highlighting the need for a long-term mechanism to enhance internal stability [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Functionality - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to improve the coordination between investment and financing functions within the capital market, reflecting the central government's commitment to reform and development [2]. - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.8 percentage points during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," indicating a significant improvement in market risk resistance [2]. Group 2: Support for Emerging Industries - The plan includes significant measures to foster emerging and future industries, with a focus on providing a "green channel" for financing and mergers for technology-driven companies in key sectors [3]. - Recent reforms in the capital market, including the implementation of the Growth Enterprise Market reform, aim to enhance institutional inclusiveness and support the development of emerging industries [3]. Group 3: Market Ecosystem and Regulation - Continuous optimization of the market ecosystem is essential for the effective functioning of the capital market, which includes strengthening regulations on issuance, information disclosure, trading, and delisting [4]. - The enforcement of strict regulations against financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation is crucial for protecting investors' rights and building market trust [4].

Report Core View - The "15th Five-Year Plan" system is clear, with 20 major indicators and 109 major projects advancing in tandem. The quantitative targets focus on economic growth, innovation drive, and green transformation. Compared with the "14th Five-Year Plan", two people's well - being indicators and two green - low - carbon indicators are added, and 109 major projects are deployed, with more emphasis on the industrial field [3]. - "Accelerating the construction of a financial power" is included in the national five - year plan for the first time. The "15th Five - Year Plan" represents a key shift in the capital market's functional positioning from focusing on "financing function" to "improving the capital market function that coordinates investment and financing" [4]. - The capital market work is systematically deployed in multiple chapters of the "15th Five - Year Plan", highlighting its overall role in serving the national overall strategy [5][6]. - The content related to the capital market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" is more detailed and operational, providing a clear roadmap for capital market reform in the next five years [7]. Grouped by Directory 1. "15th Five - Year Plan" System and Indicators - The "15th Five - Year Plan" establishes 20 major economic and social development indicators, with quantitative targets focusing on economic growth, innovation drive, and green transformation. Two people's well - being indicators and two green - low - carbon indicators are added compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" [3]. - 109 major projects are deployed, an increase from 102 in the "14th Five - Year Plan", with more emphasis on the industrial field, focusing on key directions such as enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, ecological environment protection and governance, and social service system construction [3]. 2. Capital Market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" - "Accelerating the construction of a financial power" is included in the national five - year plan for the first time, and the capital market's functional positioning has shifted from focusing on "financing function" to "improving the capital market function that coordinates investment and financing" [4]. - The capital market work is deployed in multiple important chapters of the 18 - chapter, 62 - section "15th Five - Year Plan", including key areas such as accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, building a strong domestic market, etc., highlighting its overall role in serving the national overall strategy [5][6]. - The content related to the capital market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" is more detailed and operational, including building a science and technology finance system suitable for scientific and technological innovation, promoting domestic demand circulation, optimizing core basic systems, expanding financial opening - up, and improving the long - term capital entry mechanism [7].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines significant initiatives for improving the welfare of the elderly and children, emphasizing "care for the elderly and support for the young" [1] - The plan includes increasing the basic pension and enhancing long-term care insurance, with a target of upgrading 2,000 public nursing homes, aiming for 73% of beds to be nursing-type [1] - For children, the plan aims to create a family-friendly society with expanded maternity insurance coverage, increased childcare support, and a target to raise the enrollment rate of children under three by 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Education is a key focus, with a goal to increase the average years of education for the working-age population from 11.3 to 11.7 years, and to enhance the quality of basic education [1] - The plan includes the construction of 1,000 high-quality high schools and the establishment of 500 high-level vocational training bases to better prepare students for the workforce [1] - Healthcare improvements are also highlighted, with a target to raise the average life expectancy to over 79 years and strengthen primary healthcare services through the establishment of 1,000 integrated medical communities [1] Group 3 - The social security system will be expanded to include more individuals, such as flexible workers and migrant workers, with adjustments to pension and medical insurance benefits [2] - The plan sets 20 indicators, with over one-third focused on improving living standards, indicating that enhancing people's welfare is seen as a major investment [2] - By addressing concerns in education, elderly care, and healthcare, the plan aims to boost consumer confidence and stimulate domestic demand [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" (十五五规划) and its implications across various industries including service consumption, biomedicine, home appliances, construction materials, power and environmental protection, and semiconductors. Core Insights and Arguments Service Consumption - The "15th Five-Year Plan" positions service consumption as a key driver of domestic demand due to its lack of quantity constraints and a higher leverage effect (1:10) compared to durable goods (1:3) [1][6] - The travel industry, outdoor sports, and the silver economy are highlighted as significant areas for investment [1] Biomedicine - Biomedicine is elevated to a new pillar industry, focusing on original innovation, biomanufacturing, and brain-machine interfaces, with a target output of 5 trillion yuan [1][11] - Investment opportunities are identified in areas such as dual antibodies, ADCs, synthetic biology, and AI in pharmaceuticals [1][11] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector shows resilience, with leading companies like Midea, Gree, and Haier benefiting from policies favoring offline channels [1][8] - TCL Electronics is noted for its potential profitability and high dividend yield following its integration with Sony's business [1][9] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is shifting towards stock operation and smart technology, with coal chemical and green energy becoming core growth areas [1][13] - Investment in coal chemical is expected to rise from 20 billion to a peak of 100 billion yuan [1][14] Power and Environmental Protection - The plan includes nuclear fusion as a future industry and emphasizes the need for new data centers to consume over 80% green electricity, benefiting solar and energy storage sectors [1][18] Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is focusing on advanced process expansion and domestic production of photoresists, with key companies like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei being highlighted [1][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The plan emphasizes the importance of digital transformation in various sectors, including the integration of digital economy with traditional industries [4] - The focus on high-quality development in the express delivery industry suggests a shift from volume to revenue growth, indicating potential price increases and improved profitability [12] - The construction industry is expected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on smart manufacturing and green production, which may alter competitive dynamics [16][17] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to regulate capacity and promote profit-oriented growth in the construction and building materials sectors, potentially leading to a more sustainable industry environment [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications of the "15th Five-Year Plan" across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and strategic shifts.

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift from "passive adaptation" to "active shaping" of global strategies, acknowledging the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks[6] - The development environment is characterized by profound and complex changes, with increased consideration of external risks and challenges[6] - The focus has shifted from "emphasizing speed" to "paying attention to quality," with high-quality development prioritized over mere economic growth[8] Group 2: Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at a flexible range of 4.5% to 5%, allowing for structural adjustments and risk prevention[9] - The plan aims for a per capita GDP to double by 2035, indicating a long-term growth trajectory[9] - The urbanization rate for permanent residents is targeted to reach 71% by 2026, up from 65% in the previous plan[11] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Investment will focus on efficiency, with an emphasis on "two heavy" investments, consumer-related investments, and government investments in livelihood[23] - The plan highlights the importance of boosting consumption, particularly in service sectors such as elderly care, childcare, and education[22] - The government aims to increase the proportion of social investment in human resources, reflecting a shift from "serving people" to "investing in people"[24] Group 4: Technological and Industrial Development - The focus has shifted from "technological self-reliance" to "industry leadership," with an emphasis on the industrialization of technological achievements[12] - The plan outlines specific tasks for enhancing capabilities in high-end materials, basic components, and industrial software[15] - New industries are prioritized for development, including integrated circuits, bio-manufacturing, and green hydrogen, with a focus on application scenarios and ecosystem building[16]