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地方财政预算
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宏观专题研究:从预算报告看2025年的地方财政
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-05 01:50
Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In 2024, national general public budget revenue reached approximately CNY 22 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[7] - Local fiscal revenue growth (1.7%) outpaced central fiscal revenue growth (0.9%), with local revenue accounting for 54.3% of total revenue[1] - Government fund revenue declined by 12.2%, with land transfer revenue dropping significantly by 16% to CNY 4.9 trillion[1] Group 2: 2025 Budget Projections - The weighted growth rate of local general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 2.8%, with some major economic provinces (e.g., Guangdong, Jiangsu) below 3%[1] - Total local government fund revenue budget for 2025 is estimated at CNY 5.7 trillion, reflecting a 1% decrease[1] - The expected issuance of land reserve special bonds in 2025 is projected to be between CNY 600 billion and CNY 1 trillion[2] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Among 31 provinces, only Tianjin raised its GDP growth target for 2025, while half of the provinces lowered their targets, with a weighted GDP growth target of approximately 5%[2] - Fixed asset investment targets are also weakening, with 10 out of 19 provinces reducing their growth targets[2] Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - Local governments are focusing on five key strategies for debt risk management: strict control of new hidden debts, reduction of existing debts, reform of financing platforms, strengthening special bond management, and ensuring basic financial security[2] - Specific measures include prohibiting projects beyond fiscal capacity and enhancing monitoring of hidden debts[2]