南美大豆产量

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大越期货豆粕早报-20250523
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term due to variables in Sino - US tariff negotiations, technical support, and weather uncertainties in US soybean - producing areas, while the expected high yield of South American soybeans suppresses the rebound height of the US soybean market and the increasing arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China [8]. - Domestic soybeans are in a relatively strong range - bound state, influenced by the interaction of the US soybean situation and the increasing arrival of imported soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the price, but the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price increase [10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market is in a short - term upward trend, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and the low inventory of domestic oil mills, but the increase in imported soybeans in May and the decline in spot prices limit the rebound space [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans reached a high in May, and the short - term trend of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. Soybeans - The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 6, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data Soybean Meal - The long positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. Soybeans - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [10].