交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 近期要闻： 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆种植天气近期相对良好， 短期美盘冲高回落，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等待美豆种植和生长情况 以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 2.国内进口大豆到港量7月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存7月继续回升，农业 部会议推进饲料配方减少蛋白含量，豆粕冲高回落。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底 回升，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection Data**: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - **Pig - Related Data**: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆主产区天气良好和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2790（华东），基差-146，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，油脂回落带动和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆带动和 技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2860（华东），基差-177，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆因假日休市一天，消息面短期平静和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，消息面短期平静和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-162，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆优良率低于预期和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-174，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-12 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，6月美农报偏空预期和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-197，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存38.25万吨，上周29.8万吨，环比增加28.36%，去年同期85.61万吨， 同比减少65.19%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，新季美国大豆部分产区种植天气转差和阿根廷暴雨影响收割，美 豆短期偏强震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕 震荡回升，美豆带动和国内油厂豆粕库存处于低位，但5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格 下跌限制反弹空间，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-59，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年同期62.31万吨， 同比减少80.47% ...