1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the USDA is about to release its monthly supply and demand report, the market is focusing on South American soybean production. With the pre - holiday trading being light, the market is in a wait - and - see mode and the futures market is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9014.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 12 yuan and a change rate of - 0.13% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8114.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9137.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.08% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.67%. The spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was Y05 + 286.00, with a month - on - month change of - 12.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9890.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, with a month - on - month change of + 7.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of February 9, the national imported soybean port inventory was 8.25918 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop reached 16% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the 2026 second - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 22% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 first - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 15% of the expected area - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was $553/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was $561/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was $503/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) was $497/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was $454/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment), the US West Coast (April shipment), and Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 9 cents/bushel, 9 cents/bushel, and 5 cents/bushel respectively from the previous trading day - As of the week of February 6, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2480000 tons, the second - highest level in history. It increased by 190000 tons week - on - week, 730000 tons month - on - month, 2020000 tons year - on - year, and 1530000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected to drop to about 1.6 million tons during the Spring Festival holiday - As of February 4, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop has been completed, but the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. 16% of the late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, with water shortages causing flower abortion and even plant death in extreme cases. About 31% of the national soybean area is in the critical growth stage, and water stress is the core challenge [2]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - **South American Market**: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - **USDA Pressing Data**: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - **Crop Expert Forecast**: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]

油脂日报 | 2026-02-06 节前油厂陆续停机，油脂价格稳定 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9042.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.05%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8104.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9144.00元/吨，环比变化-99.00元，幅度-1.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9010.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.66%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化+36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8390.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+286.00，环比变 化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9890.00元/吨，环比变化-100.00元，幅度-1.00%，现货基差OI05+746.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：根据调研全样本口径油厂情况来看，有16家油厂，在2026年1月之前就陆续停产，占比13%。 计划在2月9日（腊月二十二）至2月14日（腊月二十七）之间停产的油厂最多，占59%，其次是2月1日至8日（腊月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the large arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas suppresses the market, and it is oscillating above the thousand - point mark waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after reaching the bottom, with technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price suppress the market. It may return to the range - bound pattern. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the long positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and rising, affected by the US soybean trend and technical oscillatory consolidation. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased slightly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of the Sino - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US futures have risen and then fallen back, expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal has risen and then fallen back due to the reduction of protein content in feed formulations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war still exist, and the soybean meal remains oscillatory in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [30]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main force in the soybean meal market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - The short positions of the main force in the soybean market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [41]. - The arrival peak of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking has increased [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal output in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of imported soybean futures has also fluctuated slightly [49]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month [51]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen back, and the piglet price has remained weak [53]. - The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [55]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has recently declined [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US trade tariffs, and South American soybean harvests. The soybean market may experience range - bound oscillations. Specifically, the M2509 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of the soybean market is influenced by multiple factors. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff negotiations are the main focuses of the market [12][13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240. The analysis of soybean meal and soybeans includes aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and expected trends [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have increased since May. The short - term trend of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The profit of pig farming in China has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May, but the supply shortage supports the post - festival price of soybean meal. The short - term trend of soybean meal is oscillating weakly [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the short - term oscillation of soybean meal [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the transaction average price, trading volume, and price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 14 to July 23, as well as the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal during the same period [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: It records the changes in the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal from July 11 to July 23 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the supply - demand balance data of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the data of harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop soybean exports, crushing volume, and soybean output in Brazil and Argentina in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: It shows the monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025, indicating that the arrival volume reached a high in June [44]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of soybean meal have decreased, and the funds have flowed in. The main short positions of soybeans have increased, and the funds have flowed out [8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection Data**: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - **Pig - Related Data**: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather in the main production areas and technical adjustments. In the short - term, it will fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has also declined, affected by the U.S. soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, and it will return to a range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for M2509 is between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market is in a downward trend with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean market has declined, influenced by the U.S. market, while the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports price expectations. In the short - term, it will be affected by the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The expected trading range for A2509 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Market is neutral, with a bearish basis, a bullish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bullish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: Market is neutral, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bearish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - U.S. tariff negotiations is beneficial for U.S. soybeans, but favorable weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term decline after a rally. In the future, it awaits further guidance from soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile pattern due to the conclusion of the China - U.S. tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - holiday price of soybean meal. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly - volatile pattern in the short - term. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the relatively strong spot price support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war still exist. The soybean meal market will remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continues after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 17th to 26th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 17th to 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From June 13th to 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean 1 and soybean 2) and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Prices**: The soybean meal futures market is in a relatively strong and volatile state, while the spot market has been relatively weak after May Day, and the discount has slightly widened [22]. - **Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including information on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided specifically for position data other than the general description of main positions in the viewpoints and strategies section. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has increased compared to the previous week but decreased compared to the same period last year [41]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase [43]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, indicating a weakening of long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has slightly increased, and the profit margin of imported soybean futures has slightly narrowed [48]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [50]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have slightly declined [52]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has slightly increased [54]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has declined to a relatively low level [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by the weather in the planting area and Sino-US tariff negotiations, with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, South American soybean production, and domestic demand, and are expected to be in a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][10][12] - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4300 [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good weather for US soybean planting has led to a short - term pullback in the US market, which is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The future trend depends on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12] - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, but the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a fluctuating pattern in the short term, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12] - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12] - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean planting area support the short - term price expectation. The soybean meal market will remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean planting area [13] - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14] - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 12 to 23, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Data**: From June 12 to 23, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The futures of soybean meal were strongly fluctuating, while the spot prices were relatively weak after May Day, and the discount increased slightly [17][22] - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From June 10 to 23, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal generally showed a downward trend, with some fluctuations [19] - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of soybeans [30][31] - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans is provided, showing that the sowing and harvesting progress is generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [32] - In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans are provided, with the sowing progress slightly behind the previous year and the five - year average in some periods, and the growth and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][35][36] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans are provided, with the planting and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [37][38] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans are provided, with the planting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [39] - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other information of US soybeans, as well as the output information of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [40] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a technical consolidation phase due to a holiday and short - term calm in news. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybean meal has rebounded, but the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices limit the upside. It is expected to trade in a range of 3040 - 3100 for M2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with some factors like low inventory being positive and high import volume being negative [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market situation is similar to that of soybean meal. In China, soybeans have rebounded from a low. The price is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to trade in a range of 4200 - 4300 for A2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with factors such as cost support being positive and high import and domestic production expectations being negative [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back in the US market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for future developments [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillatory pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a weakly oscillatory pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas support the short - term price. However, it is still waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: The total volume of imported soybeans in China is expected to reach a high in June, and the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over with a continuous high - yield expectation [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: The continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 10 - 19, 2025, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2937 - 2999 yuan/ton, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal increased from 2520 to 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [15]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 11 - 19, 2025, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an overall upward - fluctuating trend, while the spot prices also changed accordingly [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From June 6 - 19, 2025, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal generally decreased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and harvesting rates [32][33][37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year [41]. - The soybean inventory in oil mills continues to rise, while the soybean meal inventory remains low [43]. - The unexecuted contracts in oil mills continue to rise, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has increased slightly, and the import profit on the futures market has narrowed slightly [47]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [49]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have decreased slightly [51]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [53]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has fallen to a relatively low level [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased soybean imports in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imports. It is also in a state of interaction between various factors and may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement reached in China - US tariff negotiations is beneficial for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US soybean market. The market is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low level after May Day. However, the soybean meal inventory remains low, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a state of oscillation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, resulting in a weakening demand for soybean meal after May Day. But the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation of soybean meal, and the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - Low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. - Uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China will reach a high in June [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America persists [13]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [14]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 162, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10].