Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18 cents, closing at $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 19 cents, closing at $64.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.24%, closing at 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukraine's General Staff claimed to have attacked the Novogubyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft in the Samara region of Russia, the latest in a series of attacks on Russia's fuel production industry in the country's deep - seated areas [1] - Serbian President Vucic said on October 16 that the government was willing to repurchase the controlling stake held by Gazprom at a premium to help NIS, the country's only refinery, get out of the US sanctions dilemma [1] - The Prime Minister of Iraq told the former CEO of Lukoil that Iraq remained committed to stabilizing the global oil market, and Lukoil's West Qurna oil field continued to produce about 480,000 barrels of oil per day [1] - The analysis of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) pointed out that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, cutting Russia's oil revenue and driving Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Media reported that the loading operations at the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had resumed after last week's attack. However, satellite images showed that the loading of Urals crude oil was still interrupted, and two berths at the Sheskharis Port were not operating normally. The loading speed of the Sheskharis Oil Terminal, especially for Urals crude oil, was still below normal levels. The port used to export about 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and a medium - term short position is recommended (shorting the monthly spread, Brent, or WTI) [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include tighter supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday view of being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The US EIA simultaneously lowered the price forecasts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil for this year and next year, and the latest weekly inventory continued to decline, but the decline was weaker than expected [5]. - There is a lack of new demand drivers at the macro level, coupled with a slight strengthening of the US dollar. Speculative funds reduced their positions, and the WTI far - month contract showed a contango structure, intensifying short - term selling pressure [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Information Price and Trend - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.06% to 462.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Tuesday, the contract may maintain a strong trend [5] Driving Logic - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, warming market sentiment and boosting investors' risk appetite. As geopolitical sentiment is digested, the crude oil futures market returns to a supply - demand fundamental - driven market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nymex crude oil futures have recently surpassed the $60.00 per barrel mark, indicating a positive trend in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil futures have also reached the $64.00 per barrel mark, reflecting a similar upward movement [1] Price Movements - Nymex crude oil futures are currently priced at $60.05 per barrel, with a daily increase of 1.04% [1] - Brent crude oil futures are currently priced at $64.00 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.91% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a "weak reality, weak expectation" trend due to multiple factors, with prices under pressure from weak cost factors and increasing supply pressure, while demand struggles to absorb the excess supply [1][5]. Supply Side - By 2025, domestic butadiene production capacity is expected to increase by 980,000 tons, reaching a total capacity of 7.677 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which exacerbates the oversupply pressure in the industry [3]. - Despite some companies reducing output or undergoing maintenance due to long-term losses, the overall market supply has not effectively contracted due to new production facilities coming online [3]. - As of mid-October, social inventory of polybutadiene rubber has risen to 32,800 tons, continuing to grow month-on-month, while factory inventories remain at historically high levels [3]. Demand Side - The recovery in the tire industry, the main downstream application for synthetic rubber, has not met expectations, with production capacity utilization rates showing a year-on-year decline despite a month-on-month increase [4]. - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The inventory turnover days for domestic tire companies are increasing, indicating poor terminal sales and significant destocking pressure, with procurement strategies focusing on just-in-time purchasing [4]. External Environment - Increasing uncertainty in the external environment is further suppressing the release of export orders, contributing to the overall challenges faced by the domestic synthetic rubber market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for crude oil futures at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange experienced fluctuations and closed down, with a decrease of 1.45% or 6.8 yuan, settling at 461.9 yuan [1] - Trading volume increased significantly, reaching 67,796 contracts, while open interest rose by 2,282 contracts to a total of 28,500 contracts [1] - Overnight, WTI crude oil futures also declined by 1.66%, closing at 61.51 USD per barrel [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional government to resume northern crude oil exports this Saturday will add 200,000 - 300,000 barrels per day to the Ceyhan terminal, with a historical peak of around 400,000 barrels per day. This will ease the over-lightening of European refinery raw materials and increase market supply. OPEC's phased lifting of the second layer of production cuts means Iraq's resumption of exports won't cause overproduction pressure. Future focus is on the loading situation at the Ceyhan terminal [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - NYMEX November light crude futures fell 1 cent to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.02% decline; ICE November Brent crude futures rose 11 cents to $69.42 per barrel, a 0.16% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.45% to 491 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Thursday that Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current gasoline export ban. After Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on many refineries, several Russian regions are facing shortages of certain grades of fuel [1] - Iraqi Prime Minister announced an agreement to export oil from Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [1] - Indian officials told the Trump administration that if Indian refiners are to significantly cut Russian oil imports, the US must allow them to buy crude from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela. Cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela simultaneously could lead to a global oil price spike [1] - US President Trump urged Turkish President Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil and hinted at lifting the ban on Turkey's purchase of US F - 35 fighter jets. In 2024, Turkey was Russia's fourth - largest trading partner with bilateral trade of $52 billion, mainly in fossil fuels and electronics [1] 4. Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices will trade in a range. Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] 5. Risks - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]