Group 1: Core Insights - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 120 million, with food delivery surpassing 100 million and Meituan Flash Purchase exceeding 20 million [1][2] - The company has increased its delivery subsidies in June, leading to an estimated 16% year-on-year decline in CLC operating profit, but food delivery order growth is expected to rise from mid-single digits to 10% [1][2] - Despite ongoing subsidy wars, Meituan is likely to maintain operational profit stability, with a target price of HKD 165, indicating a potential upside of 36.6% from the current price of HKD 120.80 [1][2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The average order value (AOV) may decline due to the subsidy competition, which could further slow revenue growth [2] - CLC revenue growth is projected to remain at 10% year-on-year, with profits expected to decrease by 9% [2] - The closure of Meituan Youxuan's loss-making areas could release approximately 3-4 billion yuan to support future delivery subsidies [2] Group 3: Market Position - Meituan continues to hold a leading position in the food delivery market, with strong operational capabilities and a high likelihood of maintaining market share [1][2] - The company’s operational and dispatch efficiency remains crucial for sustaining its market dominance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's daily order volume has reached a peak of over 120 million, driven by aggressive subsidy strategies in the competitive food delivery market, with a significant portion of this growth attributed to the company's response to Alibaba's substantial investment in its own delivery services [1][2]. Group 1: Order Volume and Growth - In July 2025, Meituan announced that its daily order volume exceeded 120 million, with over 100 million from food delivery and more than 20 million from instant retail [1]. - The peak order volume for Meituan's food delivery has increased from 40 million in 2020 to 98 million in 2024, with the average daily order volume ratio dropping from 87% in 2020 to approximately two-thirds in 2024 [1]. - For Q3 2025, the average daily order volume is estimated to be around 75 million, reflecting an 11-12% year-on-year growth [1]. Group 2: Subsidy Impact and Financial Projections - The intensified competition in the food delivery market has led to an increase in subsidy investments, particularly in mid-to-high tier cities, with an estimated doubling of subsidies for about 45% of order volume [2]. - The expected daily average order volume for food delivery in Q2 is projected to be 64.8 million, with an average profit per order of approximately 1.2-1.3 RMB [2]. - Instant delivery services are anticipated to see a 13% year-on-year growth, reaching a daily average order volume of 77 million [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Market Position - Despite the ongoing subsidy war, Meituan is expected to maintain its market leadership, with a projected revenue growth of 10% for CLC in Q3, although operating profit is expected to decline by 9% due to high base effects from Q2 [3]. - The closure of loss-making areas in Meituan's preferred selection service may release approximately 3-4 billion RMB in losses, which could be reinvested into food delivery subsidies [3]. - The company is likely to see stable operating profits despite the competitive landscape, with a target price maintained at 165 HKD, indicating a buy rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the strong performance of the company Mixue Group in the stock market, driven by external factors such as aggressive competition in the food delivery sector and positive institutional outlooks on its long-term growth potential [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mixue Group's stock price increased nearly 5% on June 4, reaching a record high of 610 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 231.8 billion HKD and a trading volume of 153 million HKD [1]. - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 11% in the last ten trading days and more than 20% in the last twenty trading days, with an overall rise of nearly 190% since its listing on March 3 [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The launch of a 10 billion RMB subsidy plan by JD.com on April 11 has intensified competition in the food delivery industry, prompting rivals like Ele.me and Meituan to increase their subsidy efforts [3]. - This subsidy war has significantly impacted the ready-to-drink beverage sector, leading to substantial stock price increases for related companies, with major brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee seeing high order volumes [3]. - The tea and coffee categories remain key targets for subsidies, providing transaction opportunities for companies that actively participate in promotional activities, thereby stimulating market demand [3]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Multiple investment institutions have issued positive research reports on Mixue Group, viewing it as a long-term beneficiary of the food delivery subsidy competition [4]. - Goldman Sachs raised its profit forecasts for Mixue Group for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 3%, adjusting the 2026 price-to-earnings ratio from 26x to 32x, and increased the target price from 484 HKD to 597 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - Daiwa Securities raised its target price for Mixue Group from 539 HKD to 608 HKD, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, and predicted that price competition among delivery platforms would boost same-store sales growth [4]. - Mixue Group is set to be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index effective June 9, which is expected to attract more institutional investment and enhance stock liquidity [4].

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion RMB, an 18% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose 46% year-on-year to 10.9 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 13%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Core business operating profit margin improved to 21%, exceeding expectations of 19%, while new business incurred an operating loss of 2.3 billion RMB, with a loss rate of 10% [1] Business Performance - Core business: Estimated daily orders for food delivery increased by 9-10% year-on-year, with average order value (AOV) experiencing a low single-digit decline due to increased contributions from "拼好饭" and "神枪手" [1] - Flash purchase daily orders reached nearly 11 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, with non-food categories like 3C, home appliances, and beauty products seeing over 60% growth [1] - In-store travel and accommodation gross transaction value (GTV) grew over 30% year-on-year, with stable operating profit margins [1] New Business Developments - New business segment showed a slight reduction in losses, with the pace of loss narrowing due to ongoing long-term capability building [1] - "Keeta" has rapidly grown to become the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong and is expanding into Saudi Arabia, covering nine major cities, with plans to enter Brazil and invest $1 billion over the next five years [1] Market Outlook - Increased competition in the food delivery market is expected to lead to higher subsidies, potentially impacting revenue and profit growth in Q2 [2] - Forecasts suggest mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in food delivery order volume, while flash purchase order volume is expected to maintain slightly above 30% growth [2] - New business revenue growth is projected at 22%, with losses expected to widen to approximately 2.6 billion RMB due to overseas investments [2] Valuation - Despite the lower entry barriers in the food delivery market due to increased subsidies, operational and scheduling capabilities for merchants and riders will take time to improve [2] - The company is expected to maintain a leading market share, with a projected profit growth of about 7% in 2025, leading to a target price adjustment to 165 HKD, while maintaining a buy rating [2]