近日，美团闪购发布2025中秋国庆消费趋势洞察：国庆、中秋双节加持，礼赠、出行场景叠加，美团闪 购异地订单同比去年增长47%，整体消费规模创下新高。其中，手机数码销售额同比去年翻倍，白酒同 比翻三倍，茶叶同比增长超两倍，礼品鲜花订单量及交易额实现稳健增长。消费者在3C家电、美妆护 肤等品类的平均消费金额较去年同期有大幅提升。（智通财经记者 范佳来） ...

吴楠 2025年10月，城市街头秋意正浓，而各大外卖平台的补贴热潮 似乎也随气温一同降温。 经常点外卖的消费者 不难察觉，近一个月来， 各大外卖平台的补贴力度已明显缩水： "0元 购""大额红包" 等活动逐渐消失 ，取而代之的是优惠门槛提高、满减力度缩水、限时补贴频次 锐减—— 这 场持续近 半 年的 烧钱 大战，暂时归于平静 。 这场退潮，既是监管引导的理性回归，也是市场规律的必然结果。 今 年7月18日，市场监管总 局对饿了么、美团、京东等主要外卖平台进行约谈，明确要求其停止"内卷式"恶性竞争，并构 建多方共赢的生态。8月1日， 三大外卖平台 先后发布声明， 表示 将规范补贴行为、抵制无序 竞争 。 与此同时，持续"输血"带来的财务压力也令企业难以为继。2025年第二季度财报显示，京东新 业务（含即时零售与外卖）亏损扩大至约147亿元；市场预计，阿里即时零售二季度亏损百亿左 右； 而作为行业龙头的美团，同样未能幸免——其二季度经营利润同比暴跌98%，经调整净利 润减少121亿元，下降幅度远超市场预期。 然而，补贴的退场并不意味着竞争的终结，在这看似缓和的表象之下，一场更 深层次 、更具战 略性的"生态战" ...

Group 1 - The core of the battle has evolved beyond simple food delivery services to a comprehensive ecological confrontation over "instant retail" dominance [3][15] - Alibaba initiated a massive subsidy campaign with a commitment of 50 billion yuan for its Taobao Flash Sale, leading to intense competition with Meituan and JD [2][5] - Meituan's system faced overload due to a surge in orders, with over 120 million orders recorded in one day, highlighting the scale of the competition [2][5] Group 2 - JD's strategy includes a "Double Hundred Plan" with over 10 billion yuan to support quality merchants, intensifying the competitive landscape [2][3] - High-profile subsidies from all three companies have led to significant financial losses projected for the next 12 months: Alibaba's food delivery business may face losses of up to 41 billion yuan, JD 26 billion yuan, and Meituan 25 billion yuan [2][3] - The market share dynamics are shifting towards a potential three-way split among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, with a projected ratio of 4.5:4.5:1 [5] Group 3 - Regulatory concerns have emerged, with the market regulator urging the three platforms to adhere to e-commerce laws and engage in rational competition [5] - Meituan's CEO expressed concerns about the current order volume being inflated and the need for the industry to return to rationality [5][6] - The competition is characterized by a significant financial commitment, with over 25 billion yuan spent in a single quarter by the three companies [5] Group 4 - The competition extends to the live e-commerce sector, where companies are reflecting on their roles and responsibilities in society [6][8] - The concept of "live commerce for good" is being promoted, emphasizing the need for social responsibility alongside commercial success [8][9] - The evolution of competition in the internet industry is shifting from "traffic distribution" to "data distribution," highlighting the importance of controlling entry points [9][11][13]

本文为节选内容 更多报告，关注公众号：大消费市场调研 美团：复用配送网络强化规模效应，闪电仓模式迅速拓宽市场 美团的即时零售业务主要包括美团闪购、小象超市。1）美团闪购：采用与各类零售商家以及本地商家合作的模式，依托美团外卖配送网络，提供日用 品、食品、医药健康等商品的快速配送服务。其中闪电仓是一种纯线上的便利店前置仓模式，由美团闪购于2020 年推出，专注于服务线上用户，能够在 半小时内将商品送达消费者手中。商家负责选址、租仓、采购、日常运营及人员管理，美团提供线上流量扶持、选品建议、智能调度系统（如牵牛花系 统）及履约培训，帮助商家优化库存周转和配送效率。据21 世纪商业评论数据，一个闪电仓的投资门槛为25 万元，大部分为货品成本，其余为房租、货 架、人员成本，总投资额为20-50 万元。2）小象超市：美团自营的即时零售前置仓项目。据联商网数据，初始投入约200 万元左右。 | 业态名称 | 推出时间 | 模式特点 | 经营状态 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 快驴 | 2016 年 | B2B 生鲜批发 | 公司中 | | 小象生鲜(原掌鱼生鲜) | 2017 年 | 自营生 ...

前置仓正在进行着自我突围。加重资产、深入生产环节，试图在对手熟悉的流量和补贴战场之外，开辟一条新航线，构筑差异化。 前置仓混战打到今天，早已不是拼速度和补贴的二维游戏。 叮咚买菜交出首份全年盈利，朴朴超市在福建筑起深厚护城河，这个曾被资本催熟、又被质疑模式的行业，总算迎来一丝喘息。 可战场从来没有真正平静过。 美团闪购、淘宝小时达、京东秒送等巨头正带着流量和庞大生态高速杀入，把"半小时送达"从生鲜拓展到几乎所有品类。战线被迅速拉长，战火像漩涡般 把所有玩家卷进来，逼得每一家不得不应战。 对于小象超市、朴朴超市、叮咚买菜这些原生前置仓选手来说，早期的优势在被蚕食，必须想出全新的打法，才能在这场竞争维度更高的战争中活下去。 前置仓餐饮化 餐饮化，是一种解法。 近期，不少前置仓企业开始试水餐饮业务。小象超市推出了果切业务，朴朴超市在福州总部开出了"朴朴厨房"。前置仓不再只是商品的中转站，而是向上 游的加工、制造环节延伸。 这种调整并不仅是多增几个品类，更是对盈利模式的一次结构性重构。 以朴朴厨房为例，这是一个全自营的业务，涵盖快餐、简餐、现制饮品等多个方向，直奔年轻白领的工作餐市场。朴朴敢入局，是因为它在供应链和履 ...

Core Viewpoint - The takeaway from the article is that the recent intense competition in the food delivery industry, characterized by significant financial investments from major players, has not resulted in a clear winner, and the market is now entering a phase of regulatory oversight and strategic realignment [1][25]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The food delivery market has seen over 300 billion yuan invested by major players like JD, Meituan, and Alibaba in a subsidy war, yet no clear winner has emerged from this competition [2][5]. - The competition has led to a shift in market share, with Meituan's market share dropping from over 70% to 65%, while Alibaba's Ele.me has increased its share from approximately 11%-13% to 28% [5][19]. - The intense competition has also resulted in a significant increase in order volumes, with daily orders in the instant retail market rising from 100 million at the beginning of the year to nearly 300 million by August [8][19]. Group 2: Financial Impacts - Despite the increase in order volumes, the financial toll has been severe, with Meituan's net profit plummeting by 89%, JD's by 50.8%, and Alibaba's by 18% [5][21]. - The article highlights that the subsidy strategy has created a dependency on discounts, leading to a situation where many small and medium-sized businesses are struggling to maintain profitability [24][25]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the competitive landscape, JD has focused on maintaining its logistics advantages and has introduced its own food delivery service, while Meituan is adjusting its commission structure to support merchants [10][22]. - Alibaba is leveraging its existing platforms to integrate food delivery services, aiming to enhance user engagement and drive cross-marketing opportunities [13][22]. - The regulatory environment is shifting, with new guidelines being proposed to ensure fair competition and protect the interests of riders and merchants [1][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of the food delivery market will depend on how well companies can adapt to a post-subsidy environment, focusing on efficiency and ecosystem development rather than aggressive discounting [25][26]. - The potential for growth in the instant retail market is significant, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 3.8 trillion yuan [19].

Group 1 - Meituan Flash Purchase reported that the number of Xiaomi stores joining the platform has exceeded 10,000 [1] - Xiaomi has collaborated with Meituan Flash Purchase to explore new business models such as 24-hour stores and lightning warehouses this year [1] - During the 618 shopping festival, sales of Xiaomi Home on Meituan Flash Purchase doubled year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi started launching new products through Meituan Flash Purchase since last year [1] - The Xiaomi 17 series will also be available for sale on Meituan Flash Purchase simultaneously [1]

Group 1: Investment Trends - Southbound funds have recorded a net purchase of Alibaba amounting to HKD 50.51 billion, Meituan HKD 21 billion, and other companies such as Changfei Optical Fiber and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Alibaba for 19 days, totaling HKD 548.91 billion, and Meituan for 3 days, totaling HKD 34.88 billion [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Alibaba's stock has increased by 5.3% with a net purchase of HKD 21.56 billion and a trading volume of HKD 88.06 billion [3] - Meituan's stock has risen by 4.9% with a net purchase of HKD 11.79 billion and a trading volume of HKD 51.92 billion [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber reported a net profit of HKD 296 million for the first half of the year, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 55% in the second quarter [4] - SMIC is reportedly testing a deep ultraviolet lithography machine manufactured by a Shanghai startup, indicating advancements in technology [5] Group 3: Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs has raised Alibaba's target price from USD 163 to USD 179, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its strong market position and international expansion potential [4] - Changfei Optical Fiber is maintaining an "Overweight" rating while diversifying its product offerings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted net profit and gross margin due to intense competition in the instant retail sector, while new business revenues continue to grow but are impacted by overseas expansion losses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.1% [1] - The gross margin was 33.1%, down from 41.2% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decrease of 89.0% [1][2] - The adjusted profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2] Business Segments - Core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-over-year, with delivery revenue at 23.66 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-over-year) and commission revenue at 24.95 billion yuan (up 12.9% year-over-year) [1] - New business revenue was 26.49 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.8%, but incurred a loss of 1.88 billion yuan due to overseas expansion [1][3] Competitive Landscape - Intense competition in instant retail is squeezing the company's profits, with significant increases in delivery subsidies, rider costs, and user subsidies [2] - The company’s operating profit is under pressure due to the competitive landscape, which is influenced by competitors' strategies [2] Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its new business segments, with strong growth in instant retail and plans for further expansion in both domestic and international markets [3] - The company has established over 50,000 flash warehouses nationwide and is exploring new delivery models [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 374 billion, 427.7 billion, and 489.5 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of -10.2 billion, 15.8 billion, and 38.5 billion yuan [3] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 712.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 127.93 HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. However, the gross margin decreased to 33.1% from 41.2% in the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, down 89.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The intense competition in instant retail is suppressing profits, and the recovery of profitability in the short term needs to be observed in terms of competitive dynamics and new business developments [1][4] - The core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.49 billion yuan, driven by grocery retail and overseas expansion [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 337.59 billion yuan, 373.99 billion yuan, 427.68 billion yuan, and 489.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 10.8%, 14.4%, and 14.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 43.77 billion yuan, -10.21 billion yuan, 15.78 billion yuan, and 38.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, -123.3%, 254.6%, and 144.3% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 127.93 HKD, with the current price at 96.55 HKD, indicating a potential upside [4]