1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The joint issuance of relevant opinions by the central authorities may promote the return of Hong Kong - listed technology leaders to the A - share market, triggering the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices and potentially driving the index market. The agreement reached in the Sino - US trade talks has little impact on the index. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year. Funds continue to flow south, the A - share market is mainly in a volatile state, and the trading volume and margin trading balance have slightly recovered. Each broad - based index has a small decline, and the base spread of each futures variety is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain near - end hedging [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1股指期货基差情况 - **Base Spread and Index - Enhanced Annualized Returns**: The base spreads of various futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) have changed this week. For example, the base spread of IF2506 changed from - 18.58 last week to - 7.78 this week, with a change of 10.80 and an index - enhanced annualized return of 10.0%. The index - enhanced annualized returns are calculated with a 20% futures margin rate and a 2% cash wealth management yield [2] - **Market Situation and Base Spread Analysis**: The A - share market is mainly in a volatile state. The base spreads of each variety are relatively stable this week. IH has changed from a premium to a small discount state. The annualized discounts of IC and IM are maintained at around 10% and 15% respectively. The term structure has little change, and the annualized cost of near - month contracts is low, so it is advisable to maintain near - end hedging [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The average daily trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, IC, and IM have increased compared with the previous week. For example, the average daily trading volume of IH this week is 50,533 lots, a 39.5% increase from the previous week, and the open interest is 88,097 lots, a 12.3% increase from the previous week [6] - **Base Spread after Considering Dividends**: The table shows the closing prices, base spreads after considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rates of various contracts for different indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) [7] 3.2 对冲盈亏 - **Hedging Profit and Loss**: The table shows the hedging profit and loss of various contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) last week and this week. For example, the hedging profit and loss of IF2506 was 0.75 last week and - 10.80 this week [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up" by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council may prompt Hong Kong - listed tech giants to list in A - shares, trigger the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices, and promote index - level market trends while enhancing the "new economy" and "new technology" content of the indices for long - term upward expectations [2] - The China - US trade representatives reached an agreement framework in London, canceling some additional tariffs and reciprocal counter - tariffs, but the impact on the index level was not significant [2] - The US May PPI had a mild increase, core inflation was better than expected, and the labor market cooled, leading the market to resume the expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year [2] - Recent south - bound capital flow has boosted the Hong Kong stock market, while the A - share market has been mainly volatile, with a slight increase in daily average trading volume to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day and a slow return of margin trading, with the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan this week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, resulting in a negative weekly line. All broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline ranging from 0.2% to 0.8% for the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - Affected by short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news, the non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure. The annualized cost of near - month contracts was low, and near - end hedging could be maintained [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Weekly Review - The A - share market was mainly volatile this week, with daily average trading volume slightly increasing to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, and all broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline of the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000 ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - The non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly due to short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the first quarter, with a 70% probability of recession expected this year [1] - Spot gold prices fluctuated downwards, dropping by $50 to fall below the $3240 mark [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 19% and bearish sentiment of 81% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 36% and bearish sentiment of 64% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a bullish sentiment of 45% and bearish sentiment of 55% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 26% and bearish sentiment of 74% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 24% and bearish sentiment of 76% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 74% and bearish sentiment of 26% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a balanced sentiment of 50% for both bullish and bearish [3] - The USD/CAD pair has a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 61% and bearish sentiment of 39% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a balanced sentiment of 50% for both bullish and bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [4] - The USD/CNH pair shows a bullish sentiment of 86% and bearish sentiment of 14% [4]