Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3700 points, reaching a new high for the period, with significant gains in sectors such as digital currency, semiconductors, insurance, and brokerage [1] - As of the latest data, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3690.88, up 0.20%, with a trading volume of 3.92 billion shares and a total transaction value of 597.99 billion [2] Company Performance - Cambrian Biologics saw a substantial increase of over 12%, with its stock price surpassing 940 yuan, approaching a market capitalization of nearly 400 billion yuan, making it the second-largest company by market cap on the STAR Market, following SMIC [2] Market Sentiment - There is a noticeable divergence in market sentiment, with some investors feeling left out as the index rises, while others express optimism about the market's potential [4][5] - Short-term outlook suggests that after the recent breakthrough, the Shanghai Composite Index may need to consolidate before further upward movement, as the influx of new capital may not be sufficient to drive the index higher immediately [6] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including July's import and export figures, CPI, and PPI, remained within expected ranges, indicating no significant surprises [7] - The global AI sector's capital expenditure is expected to grow, albeit modestly, amidst a broader trend of reduced spending across industries [7] Investment Strategies - The domestic economic data suggests resilience despite a slowdown, which may support continued risk appetite in the stock market [7] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to over 90%, driven by weak U.S. economic data, which could enhance global liquidity and positively impact technology stocks in Hong Kong [10] Sector Focus - Investment strategies are focusing on sectors such as AI and financial technology, with specific ETFs highlighted for their potential in the current market environment [13] - The semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for AI applications, with domestic manufacturers likely to gain from the industry's growth [16]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has taken significant action, indicating that the A-share market is likely entering a new IPO cycle as the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) has recently surpassed 3500 points, suggesting an acceleration in IPOs in the second half of the year [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a notable increase in IPO activity since May, which is a natural outcome following a bull market, as capital markets aim to support the real economy [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the three major indices showing mixed performance, and a larger market shift is anticipated as investors adjust their mindset following the SHCI's breakthrough of 3500 points [3] - Financial and defensive stocks have been performing strongly, which is intended to boost market confidence, and it is expected that thematic stocks will begin to gain momentum once confidence is sufficiently built [3] Group 3 - There is a cautious outlook on index performance, emphasizing that individual stock performance will be crucial following the index rally, with banking stocks showing signs of weakness which could indicate a healthy market environment for other sectors [5] - The banking sector's performance has been pivotal in maintaining the index above the red line, with significant trading volume observed, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally for the third consecutive week, with an average daily trading volume approaching 1.5 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points in the latter half of the week [2] - Over 4000 stocks in the market recorded gains, with major indices showing positive performance across the board [2] Index Performance - The performance of various indices for the week and year-to-date is as follows: - Wind Micro Index: +299% (YTD: +47.99%) - CSI 1000: +2.36% (YTD: +8.45%) - ChiNext Index: +2.36% (YTD: +3.06%) - CSI 2000: +2.32% (YTD: +16.82%) - CSI 500: +1.96% (YTD: +5.26%) - Shenzhen Component Index: +1.78% (YTD: +2.70%) - Shanghai Composite Index: +1.09% (YTD: +4.73%) [3] Market Dynamics - The core driving force behind the index's upward movement is primarily attributed to the banking sector, supported by insurance, securities, diversified finance, and real estate sectors [6] - On the last trading day, the banking sector saw a significant pullback after reaching new highs, which resulted in the Shanghai Composite Index recording a long upper shadow [6] Future Market Predictions - If the banking sector stabilizes quickly, it will positively impact the index's strength; however, if it requires time to confirm support, the index may experience consolidation [7] - The recent bullish trend is not solely driven by the banking sector, as both large and small-cap stocks have contributed to the overall market uplift [9] Sector Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see a significant influx of funds due to the implementation of a long-term assessment mechanism, potentially bringing in trillions of yuan into the A-share market [11] - The industrial sector is focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing, with government support for key applications [11] Upcoming Data Releases - Key economic data will be released next week, including import and export statistics, financial statistics, and national economic performance for the first half of 2025 [17][19] - The National Bureau of Statistics will also publish the housing price index for June, which is anticipated to provide insights into the real estate market [20] Stock Unlocking Events - A total of 33 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 1.104 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 26.257 billion yuan based on the closing price on July 11 [22]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has adjusted the IPO issuance pace, leading to an acceleration in IPOs, which has influenced market dynamics, particularly favoring bank stocks [1] - The current market trend suggests that as long as the index remains bullish, bank stocks are likely to continue rising until a significant turning point occurs, which could be marked by a sharp index drop or a leading stock's decline [1] - The index still has upward potential based on weekly and monthly trends, indicating that opportunities currently outweigh risks [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has not performed as strongly as the A-share market, potentially due to the high volume of IPOs, which has created downward pressure [3] - Recent market movements show a pattern of high volatility, with the index experiencing fluctuations but maintaining a positive outlook, emphasizing the importance of individual stock performance [3] - The surge in IPOs in Hong Kong has led to a record financing scale this year, making it the leader in global markets for IPOs [7] Group 3 - The current underperformance of technology stocks is attributed to the dominance of bank stocks, which are benefiting from a favorable market environment [5] - It is anticipated that once the banking sector's influence wanes, technology stocks will emerge as the next growth drivers, reflecting the ongoing tech wave [5] - Both brokerage and technology sectors have been consolidating for an extended period, suggesting that they are positioned for potential gains as the market evolves [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48%, reaching a new high for the year, driven by gains in blue-chip sectors such as banking, insurance, and real estate [7] - Despite the index's rise, there is a disparity where individual stocks are not performing as well, leading to a situation where the index appears strong while many stocks are underperforming [7] - The commentary on the market encourages a long-term investment perspective, highlighting the importance of value investing amidst current market conditions [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 0.36% to surpass 3500, indicating a stable position despite the modest increase [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by only 0.02%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3%, and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.03%, showing a divergence in market performance [1][3] Market Dynamics - Despite the overall index being positive, over 3100 stocks in the market have declined, highlighting a "index-driven market" where funds are concentrated in a few sectors [3] - The total trading volume decreased to 934.4 billion, down by 34.7 billion from the previous day, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors showing strength include organic silicon, diversified finance, and rare earth permanent magnets, with companies like Hongbo New Materials and Chenguang New Materials hitting the daily limit [3] - The organic silicon sector is benefiting from a recovery in downstream demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [3] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is supported by the recovery of manufacturing and demand from new energy motors and wind power equipment [3] Banking Sector - Major banks, including the four largest state-owned banks, have reached new highs, indicating a shift of funds towards stable investments [3] - The current market interest rates are not high, making the dividend yields of these banks attractive to risk-averse investors [3] - Recent macroeconomic data shows stability in credit and social financing, supporting the banks' fundamentals [3] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector is active, with companies like Warner Pharmaceuticals reaching historical highs, driven by strong earnings and new drug developments [4] - Continuous policy support for innovative drugs has encouraged investment in this sector [4] Underperforming Sectors - Sectors such as PCB, military equipment, gaming, and storage chips have seen significant declines, with PCB companies like Zhongjing Electronics nearing their daily limit down [4] - The military equipment sector is experiencing downward pressure due to adjustments in short-term order expectations [4] Investment Strategy - The current market environment reflects a common trend of differentiation, where funds are gravitating towards sectors with solid performance and reasonable valuations, such as banks and rare earths [5] - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamentals of their holdings rather than daily fluctuations, as stable growth opportunities exist in sectors like banking [5]

Market Performance - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3507.69, marking a 0.29% increase and a new high for the year [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.36% to 10626.87, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.80% to 2198.44 [1] - The total market turnover for the half-day session was 969.1 billion, an increase of 83.8 billion from the previous day [1] - A total of 2083 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The multi-financial, short drama gaming, childcare services, banking, and pork sectors saw the highest gains [2] - The banking sector performed well, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading with a 3.30% increase, and several other banks, including Lanzhou Bank and Zijin Bank, rising over 2% [2] - The robotics sector was active, with Upwind New Materials hitting the 20% limit up due to a significant acquisition announcement [2] - Conversely, the shipbuilding, storage chip, rare earth permanent magnet, and non-ferrous metal sectors faced declines, particularly in the storage chip sector, where companies like Youfang Technology and Chengbang Co. saw drops of 8.97% and 5.98%, respectively [2] Future Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the market is expected to continue being driven by banks, pharmaceuticals, and computing power, with potential for slight upward movement or fluctuations in the index [2] - CITIC Securities highlighted a global nuclear energy revival driven by carbon neutrality goals and energy security, predicting stable demand for uranium due to limited new supply and concentrated existing mines [3] - China International Capital Corporation noted that the food and beverage sector is expected to see marginal improvement, particularly in snack foods and soft drinks, while the liquor sector may face continued pressure but has begun to show value [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The joint issuance of relevant opinions by the central authorities may promote the return of Hong Kong - listed technology leaders to the A - share market, triggering the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices and potentially driving the index market. The agreement reached in the Sino - US trade talks has little impact on the index. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year. Funds continue to flow south, the A - share market is mainly in a volatile state, and the trading volume and margin trading balance have slightly recovered. Each broad - based index has a small decline, and the base spread of each futures variety is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain near - end hedging [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1股指期货基差情况 - **Base Spread and Index - Enhanced Annualized Returns**: The base spreads of various futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) have changed this week. For example, the base spread of IF2506 changed from - 18.58 last week to - 7.78 this week, with a change of 10.80 and an index - enhanced annualized return of 10.0%. The index - enhanced annualized returns are calculated with a 20% futures margin rate and a 2% cash wealth management yield [2] - **Market Situation and Base Spread Analysis**: The A - share market is mainly in a volatile state. The base spreads of each variety are relatively stable this week. IH has changed from a premium to a small discount state. The annualized discounts of IC and IM are maintained at around 10% and 15% respectively. The term structure has little change, and the annualized cost of near - month contracts is low, so it is advisable to maintain near - end hedging [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The average daily trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, IC, and IM have increased compared with the previous week. For example, the average daily trading volume of IH this week is 50,533 lots, a 39.5% increase from the previous week, and the open interest is 88,097 lots, a 12.3% increase from the previous week [6] - **Base Spread after Considering Dividends**: The table shows the closing prices, base spreads after considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rates of various contracts for different indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) [7] 3.2 对冲盈亏 - **Hedging Profit and Loss**: The table shows the hedging profit and loss of various contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) last week and this week. For example, the hedging profit and loss of IF2506 was 0.75 last week and - 10.80 this week [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up" by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council may prompt Hong Kong - listed tech giants to list in A - shares, trigger the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices, and promote index - level market trends while enhancing the "new economy" and "new technology" content of the indices for long - term upward expectations [2] - The China - US trade representatives reached an agreement framework in London, canceling some additional tariffs and reciprocal counter - tariffs, but the impact on the index level was not significant [2] - The US May PPI had a mild increase, core inflation was better than expected, and the labor market cooled, leading the market to resume the expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year [2] - Recent south - bound capital flow has boosted the Hong Kong stock market, while the A - share market has been mainly volatile, with a slight increase in daily average trading volume to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day and a slow return of margin trading, with the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan this week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, resulting in a negative weekly line. All broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline ranging from 0.2% to 0.8% for the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - Affected by short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news, the non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure. The annualized cost of near - month contracts was low, and near - end hedging could be maintained [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Weekly Review - The A - share market was mainly volatile this week, with daily average trading volume slightly increasing to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, and all broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline of the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000 ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - The non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly due to short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy experienced negative growth in the first quarter, with a 70% probability of recession expected this year [1] - Spot gold prices fluctuated downwards, dropping by $50 to fall below the $3240 mark [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 19% and bearish sentiment of 81% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 36% and bearish sentiment of 64% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a bullish sentiment of 45% and bearish sentiment of 55% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 26% and bearish sentiment of 74% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 35% and bearish sentiment of 65% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 24% and bearish sentiment of 76% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 74% and bearish sentiment of 26% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a balanced sentiment of 50% for both bullish and bearish [3] - The USD/CAD pair has a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 61% and bearish sentiment of 39% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a balanced sentiment of 50% for both bullish and bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [4] - The USD/CNH pair shows a bullish sentiment of 86% and bearish sentiment of 14% [4]