1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to new production pressure, despite the rebound driven by supply disruptions in Guinea and the overseas price increase. The spot price has stopped falling in the short - term but is unlikely to rebound significantly. The supply of bauxite is becoming more abundant, and its price may continue to face downward pressure. The alumina supply is in a long - term surplus, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The export window remains closed, and short - term trading is recommended to be on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - As of 3 p.m. on April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots to 410,000 lots. The basis widened, with the Shandong spot price at a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the main contract. Most regional spot prices stopped falling, except for slight drops in Guizhou and Shandong. The social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons. The bauxite supply is loosening, and its price may decline. The alumina production decreased by 3.7 tons to 164.4 tons this week due to smelter maintenance. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and operating rate increased in March [10][11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices 3.2.1 Spot Price - Most regional alumina spot prices stopped falling this week, with Guizhou and Shandong prices dropping 15 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. Short - term stability is due to smelter maintenance and overseas price rebound, but significant rebounds are unlikely [19]. 3.2.2 Futures Price and Basis - As of April 18, the alumina index oscillated narrowly, falling 0.92% to 2800 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 21,000 lots. The Shandong spot price had a 66 - yuan/ton premium over the main contract, and the basis widened. The month - spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 28 yuan/ton and remained oscillating [22]. 3.2.3 Bauxite Price - This week, Guizhou bauxite prices dropped from 600 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, and Shanxi prices from 580 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton. Guinea CIF decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 88 dollars/ton, while Australia CIF remained at 86 dollars/ton. The bauxite supply is becoming more abundant [25]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Bauxite Production and Import - In March 2025, China's bauxite production was 523 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.62%. In February 2025, imports were 1441 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15%. From Guinea, imports in February were 1073 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.05%. From Australia, imports in February were 236 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.52% [28][30][33]. 3.3.2 Bauxite Port and Inventory Data - The global bauxite floating inventory decreased by 164 tons to 1481 tons this week, while China's port inventory increased by 153 tons to 2211 tons. In March, the total bauxite inventory increased by 4 tons to 4111 tons, with Shanxi's inventory decreasing by 19 tons and Henan's increasing by 27 tons [38][41]. 3.3.3 Alumina Production and Import - Export - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 744.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The operating capacity in March was 8860 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.99%. This week's production was 164.4 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. In February 2025, the net alumina export was 16.56 tons. As of April 18, the Australian FOB price rebounded by 19 dollars/ton to 348 dollars/ton, and the export loss was - 421 yuan/ton. In March 2025, overseas alumina production was 524.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [43][46][48]. 3.4 Demand Side - In March 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 373 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The operating capacity was 4379 tons, an increase of 13 tons from last month, and the operating rate increased by 0.27% to 96.23% [56][59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply in 2025 shows an increasing trend in production and capacity utilization. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the total demand also shows a slow upward trend. The supply - demand gap is widening, with a surplus of 17 tons in January, 166 tons in February, 259 tons in March, and 364 tons in April [61]. 3.6 Inventory - The alumina social inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 400.1 tons this week, with decreases in electrolytic aluminum plants and in - transit inventory, no change in alumina plants, and an increase in port inventory. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 tons to 28.77 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 31.0 tons [66][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices continue to decline, and the industry is facing cost - profit pressure. However, with the reduction in operating capacity and potential demand recovery, the price may gradually enter a bottom - grinding stage [13][15] - The supply of bauxite is affected by policies and market factors, with domestic prices in a downward trend but limited downside space, and overseas supply facing uncertainties [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices are in a downward channel. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite is priced at 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. The short - term price is in a downward range but with limited downside space [2][12] - For imports, large bauxite enterprises are signing long - term contracts, with prices ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton. There is a stalemate between supply and demand, and the market rumor of Guinea's GIC mine shutdown is unconfirmed. Newly arrived ore is 665.4 million tons, including 549 million tons from Guinea and 71.5 million tons from Australia [2][12] Alumina - Last week, alumina spot prices continued to decline. The ALD northern comprehensive price is 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index is 2845.4 yuan/ton, down 139.6 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port prices are 2960 - 3040 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan/ton [3][13] - Many alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou are in a loss situation. The domestic alumina full - cost is 3100 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is - 79 yuan/ton [13] - Supply - side: Alumina maintenance, production reduction, and active production cuts are concentrated, with the operating capacity decreasing significantly. The national alumina installed capacity is 10922 million tons, the operating capacity is 8615 million tons, down 490 million tons from last week, and the operating rate is 78.9% [13] Demand - Domestically, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed or increased production, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 5.5 million tons week - on - week to 4390.38 million tons. Overseas demand remains unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2935.8 million tons, flat week - on - week [14] Inventory - As of April 10, the national alumina inventory is 344.3 million tons, up 5.3 million tons from last week. Alumina enterprise inventory is increasing, electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain low - inventory, and port inventory is currently stable [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 296049 tons, down 10532 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On April 11, 0.3 million tons of alumina were traded in the Henan market at an ex - factory price of 2910 yuan/ton [16] - In the short term, more inland enterprises are under maintenance. It is expected that in the next 50 days, the alumina operating capacity will be maintained between 8800 - 9000 million tons, and the balance coefficient will return to around 2, gradually supporting the price [16] - Some large industrial chain group - supported alumina enterprises are under maintenance, with an estimated impact on production capacity of 150 million tons and an estimated output reduction of 7 million tons [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and steam coal [17][20][27] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina shows that the supply - demand gap has changed significantly recently [36][43][44] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][54]