Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market sentiment is somewhat pessimistic. With the seasonal off - peak demand, steel mills' raw material procurement control is obvious. Coke enterprises' inventories have continuously accumulated, and some enterprises are under inventory pressure. The demand for raw coal has weakened, and it is expected that the coking coal price will be weak in the short term [3]. - The steel mills' coke inventories are mostly at a reasonable level, and procurement is still mainly controlled. Coupled with the expected decline in molten iron production, the rigid demand support for coke is weak. Although the supply has tightened slightly due to coke enterprises' production restrictions, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the market supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some停产 mines are resuming production, and others are maintaining normal production. The coking coal market has general transactions, weak purchasing sentiment, low acceptance of high - priced coal, and falling prices. After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, making coking coal prices more likely to fall than rise [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, and the basis is 144.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and limited supply growth [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, environmental inspections have become stricter, with more coal mine shutdowns and production cuts in the main production areas. The downward space for coking coal prices is gradually narrowing, and the cost - side profit - sharing space is limited. Affected by losses and environmental policies, coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has declined, and some are still in a production - restricted state, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1330, and the basis is - 41, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 16 (17:30), the port spot prices of coking coal from different origins (Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.) in Hebei and Shandong vary, with prices ranging from 800 to 1330 [10]. - **Coke**: On June 16 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price indices show that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1170 to 1645 [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Group 1: Daily Views - Most coal mines in production areas maintain normal production, resulting in sufficient supply in the coking coal market. Downstream coke enterprises purchase as needed, and trading enthusiasm is low. The market activity has declined, and the actual transaction continues the weakening trend [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1100, with a basis of 301.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - The 20 - day moving average of coking coal is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2][3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions decreasing [3]. - It is expected that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short term [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Bullish factors for coking coal: rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors for coking coal: slow procurement by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Coke - Bullish factors for coke: rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors for coke: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [9]. Group 4: Price and Inventory - On May 26, 2024, the price of coking coal from Russia at Hebei Port increased by 31, and the price of gas coal at Shandong Port increased by 110 [11]. - The port inventory of coking coal is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [21]. - The independent coke enterprise inventory of coking coal is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [24]. - The steel mill inventory of coking coal is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Group 5: Production and Profitability - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of the coking coal market is sufficient, with downstream market sentiment being cautious. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - The inventory of steel mills' coking coal is decreasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and ports is also showing a downward trend [23][26][29]. - The supply of the coke market is increasing, but the shipping of coking enterprises is under pressure. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - The inventory of steel mills' coke is increasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises is also rising, and the port inventory is decreasing [23][26][29]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with sufficient supply. The downstream market is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is average. Some coal prices have declined slightly, and the price is oscillating weakly [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, with a basis of 222.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons compared to last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Although the downstream coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and the demand for raw materials remains, with the arrival of the off - season, the finished product sales are poor. Steel mills mainly aim to clear inventory and purchase raw materials as needed. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: With the continuous repair of profits, most coking enterprises maintain high production enthusiasm, and the supply of coke resources has increased. However, due to the slowdown in procurement by some steel mills, the shipping speed of coking enterprises has decreased, but the overall inventory remains at a low level [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1460, with a basis of 13.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills is continuously rising, and the phenomenon of controlling coke purchases has increased, resulting in pressure on coking enterprises' shipping. Coupled with the weakening of finished product prices and the decline in raw coal prices weakening cost support, the market bearish sentiment is continuously heating up. The coke price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. Price - **Coking Coal Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and ports showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - **Coke Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and grades mostly showed a downward trend [13]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to last week [23]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to last week [29]. Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% compared to last week [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan compared to last week [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with the current high pig iron production providing some support, but the market is affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. - The price of coke is also expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the downstream demand is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient due to the weak cost support and limited procurement increment from steel mills [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is relatively abundant, downstream procurement slows, and the price is stable with a slight decline; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1100, basis is 192, spot premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1927.1 tons, a decrease of 24.4 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [3]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position decreases; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After the previous restocking, coke enterprises' inventory is at a reasonable level, and the restocking pace slows. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production increases steadily, downstream demand is good, and inventory is mostly at a low level; neutral [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 1470, basis is - 37, spot discount to futures; bearish [8]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 978.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from last week; bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [8]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position increases; bearish [8]. - Expectation: Although the demand from steel mills is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [8]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production, limited supply increment [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills, partial overdraft of restocking demand [10]. Prices - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the spot prices of coking coal at ports from different countries and regions are provided [11]. - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows prices of different types of coke at various ports [13]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [23]. - Independent coke enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [40]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [44].