| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月12日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3320 | -30 | 201 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 191 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3144 | 3187 | -43 | 146 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3196 | 3235 | -39 | 94 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3086 | 3130 | -41 | 201 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | 15 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | -62 | | | ...

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market sentiment is somewhat pessimistic. With the seasonal off - peak demand, steel mills' raw material procurement control is obvious. Coke enterprises' inventories have continuously accumulated, and some enterprises are under inventory pressure. The demand for raw coal has weakened, and it is expected that the coking coal price will be weak in the short term [3]. - The steel mills' coke inventories are mostly at a reasonable level, and procurement is still mainly controlled. Coupled with the expected decline in molten iron production, the rigid demand support for coke is weak. Although the supply has tightened slightly due to coke enterprises' production restrictions, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the market supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some停产 mines are resuming production, and others are maintaining normal production. The coking coal market has general transactions, weak purchasing sentiment, low acceptance of high - priced coal, and falling prices. After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, making coking coal prices more likely to fall than rise [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, and the basis is 144.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and limited supply growth [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, environmental inspections have become stricter, with more coal mine shutdowns and production cuts in the main production areas. The downward space for coking coal prices is gradually narrowing, and the cost - side profit - sharing space is limited. Affected by losses and environmental policies, coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has declined, and some are still in a production - restricted state, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1330, and the basis is - 41, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 16 (17:30), the port spot prices of coking coal from different origins (Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.) in Hebei and Shandong vary, with prices ranging from 800 to 1330 [10]. - **Coke**: On June 16 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price indices show that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1170 to 1645 [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Group 1: Daily Views - Most coal mines in production areas maintain normal production, resulting in sufficient supply in the coking coal market. Downstream coke enterprises purchase as needed, and trading enthusiasm is low. The market activity has declined, and the actual transaction continues the weakening trend [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1100, with a basis of 301.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - The 20 - day moving average of coking coal is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2][3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions decreasing [3]. - It is expected that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short term [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Bullish factors for coking coal: rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors for coking coal: slow procurement by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Coke - Bullish factors for coke: rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors for coke: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [9]. Group 4: Price and Inventory - On May 26, 2024, the price of coking coal from Russia at Hebei Port increased by 31, and the price of gas coal at Shandong Port increased by 110 [11]. - The port inventory of coking coal is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [21]. - The independent coke enterprise inventory of coking coal is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [24]. - The steel mill inventory of coking coal is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Group 5: Production and Profitability - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of the coking coal market is sufficient, with downstream market sentiment being cautious. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - The inventory of steel mills' coking coal is decreasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and ports is also showing a downward trend [23][26][29]. - The supply of the coke market is increasing, but the shipping of coking enterprises is under pressure. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - The inventory of steel mills' coke is increasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises is also rising, and the port inventory is decreasing [23][26][29]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with sufficient supply. The downstream market is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is average. Some coal prices have declined slightly, and the price is oscillating weakly [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, with a basis of 222.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons compared to last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Although the downstream coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and the demand for raw materials remains, with the arrival of the off - season, the finished product sales are poor. Steel mills mainly aim to clear inventory and purchase raw materials as needed. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: With the continuous repair of profits, most coking enterprises maintain high production enthusiasm, and the supply of coke resources has increased. However, due to the slowdown in procurement by some steel mills, the shipping speed of coking enterprises has decreased, but the overall inventory remains at a low level [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1460, with a basis of 13.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills is continuously rising, and the phenomenon of controlling coke purchases has increased, resulting in pressure on coking enterprises' shipping. Coupled with the weakening of finished product prices and the decline in raw coal prices weakening cost support, the market bearish sentiment is continuously heating up. The coke price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. Price - **Coking Coal Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and ports showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - **Coke Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and grades mostly showed a downward trend [13]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to last week [23]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to last week [29]. Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% compared to last week [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan compared to last week [44].