| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年8月25日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 85 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3390 | 3410 | -20 | 195 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3230 | 3239 | -g | 50 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3119 | 3121 | -2 | 161 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3195 | 3200 | -5 | 85 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3420 | -20 | 48 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3360 | 3370 | -10 | 8 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-17） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分停产煤矿处于复产中，其余煤矿维持正常生产节奏。近日炼焦煤市场成交一般，市场 采购情绪较弱，对高价煤接受度较低，价格持续走低，部分矿点库存继续小幅累积。加之焦炭连续三轮 降价落地后，后市仍存降价预期，市场情绪不断走低，炼焦煤价格易跌难涨；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差144.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦煤市场情绪稍显悲观，需求季节性淡季，钢厂原 ...

Group 1: Daily Views - Most coal mines in production areas maintain normal production, resulting in sufficient supply in the coking coal market. Downstream coke enterprises purchase as needed, and trading enthusiasm is low. The market activity has declined, and the actual transaction continues the weakening trend [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1100, with a basis of 301.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - The 20 - day moving average of coking coal is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2][3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions decreasing [3]. - It is expected that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short term [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Bullish factors for coking coal: rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors for coking coal: slow procurement by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Coke - Bullish factors for coke: rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors for coke: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [9]. Group 4: Price and Inventory - On May 26, 2024, the price of coking coal from Russia at Hebei Port increased by 31, and the price of gas coal at Shandong Port increased by 110 [11]. - The port inventory of coking coal is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [21]. - The independent coke enterprise inventory of coking coal is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [24]. - The steel mill inventory of coking coal is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Group 5: Production and Profitability - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-12） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产区煤矿维持稳定生产，焦煤市场供应充足。下游市场观望情绪较浓，对于高价煤资源接 受度一般，部分原料煤库存偏高位的焦钢企业有控制到货现象，影响个别地区部分煤种出货有所放缓， 部分价格小幅回落，线上竞拍市场多以流拍或降价为主，价格震荡偏弱运行；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差222.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢企开工高位，本周日均铁水产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-8） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿多正常生产，供给端相对充裕。下游市场采购节奏放缓，炼焦煤成交活跃度有 所降低，个别煤矿出货放缓，煤企厂内库存略有累积，昨日临汾区域部分煤种已开始小幅回落，整体看 焦煤市场价格稳中有降；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差192；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存782.5万吨，港口库存324.8万吨，独立焦企库存819.8万吨，总样本库存1927.1万吨， 较上周减少24.4万吨；偏多 6、预期：经过前期积极补库，焦企库存补至合理水平，近期补库节奏放缓，以维持当前库存为主。考 虑当前铁水产量处于高位，暂时对炼焦煤价格有一定支撑，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦炭： 1、 ...