1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and power supply is stable after the peak - summer period. Many small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. Overseas, the Fed is open to interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - 523 coking coal mines: The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Warehouse receipts: The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. - Profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. - Profitability rate of steel mills: The profitability rate is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - Demand - side hot metal production: The average daily hot metal output is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year [9]. Market Outlook - Macro: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh; many small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates; from January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5175.4% year - on - year. - Overseas: The Fed is open to interest rate cuts, which led to a sharp rebound in the night - session of black commodities. Trump plans to "fire" the current Fed governor, and Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. - Supply and demand: The mine - end inventory has turned from decline to increase, and the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. - Technical: The weekly K - line of coking coal futures is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. - Strategy: The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate, mainly determined by the industry in the short term, and affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, with cautious capital in the short term [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of August 29, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 910,100 lots, an increase of 11,790 lots week - on - week. - As of August 29, the price difference between coking coal contracts 1 - 9 is 164.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 points week - on - week. - As of August 29, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. - As of August 29, the ratio of the January coke - coking coal futures contract is 1.43, a decrease of 0.02 points week - on - week [14][23]. Spot Market - As of August 28, 2025, the ex - warehouse price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the basis of coking coal is - 75.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.0 points week - on - week [27]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Upstream - The National Energy Administration aims to enhance overseas resource supply and cooperation with major coal - producing countries. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of coking coal decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import of coking coal was 962.30 tons, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. Mongolia is the largest source of imports, accounting for about 47% [55]. Industry - 523 coking coal mines: The capacity utilization rate is 84.0%, a decrease of 1.2% week - on - week. The average daily output of raw coal is 188.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons week - on - week. The raw coal inventory is 472.6 tons, an increase of 1.0 ton week - on - week. The average daily output of clean coal is 75.3 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 283.6 tons, an increase of 8.0 tons week - on - week. - 314 independent coal washing plants: The capacity utilization rate is 36.5%, an increase of 0.47% week - on - week. The daily output of clean coal is 26.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory is 289.5 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons week - on - week. - Total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills): As of August 22, 2025, it is 1898.37 tons, an increase of 11.01 tons week - on - week and 10.34% year - on - year. - Coking coal inventory in ports: The inventory in 16 ports is 455.41 tons, an increase of 4.96 tons week - on - week [31][35][40]. Downstream - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons week - on - week and an increase of 19.24 tons year - on - year. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points year - on - year. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 811.85 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons week - on - week, and the available days of coking coal are 13.25 days, an increase of 0.18 days week - on - week [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market sentiment is somewhat pessimistic. With the seasonal off - peak demand, steel mills' raw material procurement control is obvious. Coke enterprises' inventories have continuously accumulated, and some enterprises are under inventory pressure. The demand for raw coal has weakened, and it is expected that the coking coal price will be weak in the short term [3]. - The steel mills' coke inventories are mostly at a reasonable level, and procurement is still mainly controlled. Coupled with the expected decline in molten iron production, the rigid demand support for coke is weak. Although the supply has tightened slightly due to coke enterprises' production restrictions, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the market supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some停产 mines are resuming production, and others are maintaining normal production. The coking coal market has general transactions, weak purchasing sentiment, low acceptance of high - priced coal, and falling prices. After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further price cuts, making coking coal prices more likely to fall than rise [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, and the basis is 144.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and limited supply growth [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, environmental inspections have become stricter, with more coal mine shutdowns and production cuts in the main production areas. The downward space for coking coal prices is gradually narrowing, and the cost - side profit - sharing space is limited. Affected by losses and environmental policies, coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has declined, and some are still in a production - restricted state, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1330, and the basis is - 41, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 16 (17:30), the port spot prices of coking coal from different origins (Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.) in Hebei and Shandong vary, with prices ranging from 800 to 1330 [10]. - **Coke**: On June 16 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price indices show that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1170 to 1645 [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the May global manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The Sino-US economic and trade consultations may improve market sentiment. The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%. - In terms of supply and demand, the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has declined for five consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has decreased year-on-year. The total inventory has dropped, with obvious inventory accumulation at the mine end. The weak reality is still dominated by off - season expectations. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. - The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate. The short - term technical oversold rebound and the repair of market pessimism are expected, but the downstream steel demand is under pressure in the off - season, and coke is facing a third round of price cuts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.8 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 1773.8 tons, a decrease of 35.02 tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.56% year - on - year. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.30 tons year - on - year [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations may improve market sentiment. Overseas, the World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast. In terms of supply and demand, there are signs of marginal improvement in supply. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. It is recommended to treat the coking coal main contract as a fluctuating operation [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of June 13, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 688,900 lots, an increase of 8,796 lots week - on - week. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coking coal was 13.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of June 6, the registered coking coal warehouse receipts were 0 lots, a decrease of 100 lots week - on - week. As of June 13, the spread between the main contracts of coke and coking coal was 575.0, an increase of 3 points week - on - week [14][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 12, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of June 13, the coking coal basis was 213.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.50 yuan/ton week - on - week [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Coal Mine and Coal Washing Plant**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.7%, a decrease of 0.9% week - on - week. The daily average output of raw coal was 187.8 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons week - on - week, and the raw coal inventory was 684.9 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal was 74.1 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory was 486.0 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% week - on - week; the daily average output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons week - on - week; the raw coal inventory was 336.13 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons week - on - week; the clean coal inventory was 251.47 tons, an increase of 6.41 tons week - on - week [30]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%. The daily average coke output was 52.17 tons, a decrease of 0.93 tons, and the coke inventory was 87.31 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1773.8 tons, a decrease of 35.02 tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.56% year - on - year [34]. - **Port Inventory**: As of June 13, the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 tons, a decrease of 1.00 tons; the coke inventory at 18 ports was 258.69 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons. The hot metal output has declined from a high level, and the steel mills are making low - volume purchases for rigid demand replenishment, resulting in a seasonal decline in the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports [38]. - **Downstream Steel Mills**: As of June 12, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.30 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points year - on - year [44]. - **National Production**: From January to April, the national raw coal output reached 1.585 billion tons, an increase of 10.895 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 6.6%. In April 2025, the national raw coal output was 389 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 3.8%, and the growth rate slowed down by 5.8 percentage points compared with March. In April 2025, the coking coal output in China was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 8.23% [52]. - **Import Situation**: In 2024, China's coal imports reached 540 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 14.4%, setting a new record. Among them, the cumulative import of coking coal was 12.1895 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 19.62%. From January to April 2025, the total import of coking coal in China was 3.64089 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.09% [56].

Group 1: Daily Views - Most coal mines in production areas maintain normal production, resulting in sufficient supply in the coking coal market. Downstream coke enterprises purchase as needed, and trading enthusiasm is low. The market activity has declined, and the actual transaction continues the weakening trend [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1100, with a basis of 301.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - The 20 - day moving average of coking coal is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2][3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions decreasing [3]. - It is expected that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short term [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Bullish factors for coking coal: rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors for coking coal: slow procurement by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Coke - Bullish factors for coke: rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors for coke: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [9]. Group 4: Price and Inventory - On May 26, 2024, the price of coking coal from Russia at Hebei Port increased by 31, and the price of gas coal at Shandong Port increased by 110 [11]. - The port inventory of coking coal is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [21]. - The independent coke enterprise inventory of coking coal is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [24]. - The steel mill inventory of coking coal is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [27]. Group 5: Production and Profitability - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of the coking coal market is sufficient, with downstream market sentiment being cautious. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - The inventory of steel mills' coking coal is decreasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and ports is also showing a downward trend [23][26][29]. - The supply of the coke market is increasing, but the shipping of coking enterprises is under pressure. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - The inventory of steel mills' coke is increasing, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises is also rising, and the port inventory is decreasing [23][26][29]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas maintain stable production, with sufficient supply. The downstream market is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is average. Some coal prices have declined slightly, and the price is oscillating weakly [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, with a basis of 222.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons compared to last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Although the downstream coking and steel enterprises are operating at a high level and the demand for raw materials remains, with the arrival of the off - season, the finished product sales are poor. Steel mills mainly aim to clear inventory and purchase raw materials as needed. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: With the continuous repair of profits, most coking enterprises maintain high production enthusiasm, and the supply of coke resources has increased. However, due to the slowdown in procurement by some steel mills, the shipping speed of coking enterprises has decreased, but the overall inventory remains at a low level [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1460, with a basis of 13.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills is continuously rising, and the phenomenon of controlling coke purchases has increased, resulting in pressure on coking enterprises' shipping. Coupled with the weakening of finished product prices and the decline in raw coal prices weakening cost support, the market bearish sentiment is continuously heating up. The coke price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. Price - **Coking Coal Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and ports showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - **Coke Price**: On May 9, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and grades mostly showed a downward trend [13]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to last week [23]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to last week [29]. Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% compared to last week [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan compared to last week [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with the current high pig iron production providing some support, but the market is affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. - The price of coke is also expected to remain stable in the short - term. Although the downstream demand is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient due to the weak cost support and limited procurement increment from steel mills [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is relatively abundant, downstream procurement slows, and the price is stable with a slight decline; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1100, basis is 192, spot premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1927.1 tons, a decrease of 24.4 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [3]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position decreases; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After the previous restocking, coke enterprises' inventory is at a reasonable level, and the restocking pace slows. The price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production increases steadily, downstream demand is good, and inventory is mostly at a low level; neutral [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 1470, basis is - 37, spot discount to futures; bearish [8]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 978.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from last week; bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; bearish [8]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main contract, short position increases; bearish [8]. - Expectation: Although the demand from steel mills is good, the price increase momentum is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [8]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production, limited supply increment [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margin of steel mills, partial overdraft of restocking demand [10]. Prices - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the spot prices of coking coal at ports from different countries and regions are provided [11]. - Mysteel: On May 7 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows prices of different types of coke at various ports [13]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [23]. - Independent coke enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [40]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [44].