Core Insights - The logistics industry has shown signs of recovery, with the logistics prosperity index increasing by 0.4 percentage points in the third quarter, indicating improved operational vitality among enterprises [1] Summary by Categories Logistics Service Price Index - The logistics service price index rose by a cumulative 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter, reflecting a positive trend in service pricing [1] Employment Indicators - The employment index for the logistics sector increased by 2.1 percentage points in the third quarter, with a notable rise of 1.4 percentage points in September, suggesting a growing demand for labor [1] Sector Performance - Specific sectors such as water transportation, air transportation, and multimodal transport have seen a significant increase in job demand, indicating sector-specific growth within the logistics industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of steady growth, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.9% in August, indicating a recovery and sustained expansion in the sector [1] Group 1: Logistics Industry Performance - In August, the logistics business volume and new order volume increased significantly due to the implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, stabilizing investment, and ensuring livelihoods [1] - The logistics prosperity index has remained in the expansion range for six consecutive months, with balanced growth observed across eastern, central, and western regions of China [1] - The new order indices for railway, air transport, and postal express industries exceeded 55%, with significant growth in multimodal transport and water transport sectors [1] Group 2: Regional and Sectoral Insights - The logistics business volume index for eastern, central, and western regions increased by 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [1] - The demand for logistics services in sectors such as automotive parts manufacturing, electronic components manufacturing, and electrical machinery manufacturing has increased [2] - Major urban agglomerations like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta have shown a recovery in logistics business volume, demonstrating significant radiating effects [2] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The logistics service price index rose by 0.3 percentage points in August, with the railway transport service price index remaining stable at 48.9% [2] - The main business profit index for logistics companies increased by 0.2 percentage points, with small and micro enterprises also showing improvement [2] Group 4: Investment and Future Outlook - Fixed asset investment in the logistics sector remains in the expansion range, with central and western regions achieving completion indices around 55%, which is 4 to 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - The business activity expectation index for the logistics industry was 55.8% in August, indicating a positive outlook for future activities [3] - The logistics demand market is expected to maintain steady growth, providing solid support for economic recovery [4]

Group 1 - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) closed up 0.84% and continued to rise 1% in pre-market trading, reaching $18.2 [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported an increase in the logistics industry prosperity index for August, which rose to 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Key sub-indices, including the total business volume index and new orders index, showed continuous expansion, with the total business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months and the new orders index for seven consecutive months [1] Group 2 - ZTO's market capitalization stands at $14.412 billion, with a total share count of 800 million [1] - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 12.13, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.603 [1] - The stock has a dividend yield of 3.87% and a historical high of $35.363 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery and expansion, with the logistics prosperity index for August 2025 at 50.9%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption, stabilizing investment, and ensuring livelihoods [1]. Group 1: Logistics Index Performance - The business volume index and new orders index both continue to expand, with the business volume index at 50.9% and the new orders index at 52.3%, indicating sustained growth for six and seven consecutive months respectively [4][5]. - The eastern, central, and western regions of China have all experienced balanced growth, with the business volume index in these regions increasing by 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Developments - The logistics demand in sectors such as tourism, e-commerce, and local specialties has surged, with outdoor leisure and seasonal produce orders increasing by nearly 5% month-on-month [5]. - The postal express and air transport sectors have maintained high business volume indices of 69.6% and 53.1%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points [5]. Group 3: Microeconomic Indicators - The logistics service price index rose by 0.3 percentage points in August, with improvements noted across various transport sectors, particularly in water transport due to increased demand [6]. - The main business profit index also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, with small and micro enterprises showing a narrowing profit gap compared to larger firms [6]. Group 4: Investment and Future Outlook - Fixed asset investment completion index remains in the expansion range, particularly in central and western regions, which reached around 55%, up 4-5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The business activity expectation index rose to 55.8%, indicating a positive outlook for logistics demand and economic stability moving forward [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the implementation of policies to promote consumption, stabilize investment, and ensure people's livelihoods, the logistics business volume and new order volume are growing rapidly, with balanced growth across eastern, central, and western regions [1] - The logistics business activity expectation index remains above 55%, indicating a positive outlook for enterprises [1] - The logistics business volume index is at 50.9%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and continues to stay in the expansion range [1][2] Group 2 - The new order index for logistics enterprises is stable at 52.3%, maintaining a prosperous range for seven consecutive months, with significant growth in multimodal transport and water transport sectors [1] - The logistics service price index has increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, with a cumulative rise of 0.5 percentage points over two months [1] - The business activity expectation index is at 55.8%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, with an average of 55.4% over the first eight months, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 2, some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price drops. Rebar prices in Changsha dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in some cities dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while in Shenyang, it rose by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar 2601 contract showed a split trend, with the J value rebounding, the K value nearly flat, and the D value continuing to decline. The daily KDJ indicators of hot-rolled coil 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been expanding [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - News: Recently, some northern steel mills started the first round of coke purchase price cuts, and iron ore spot prices also showed a weakening trend [9]. - Fundamentals: The production and demand of the five major steel products continued to rise slightly, while the steel mill inventory continued to decline slightly, but the social inventory reached a new high since early May. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and daily hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 140 - 200 yuan/ton, which has a suppressing effect on raw material prices. Steel mill iron ore inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, and the purchasing sentiment has turned flat. After the eighth round of coke spot price increase, there are rumors that Hebei steel mills plan to conduct the first round of coke price cuts on September 5. Mongolia will increase coal exports to China, causing coke and coking coal futures to turn weak again [10]. - Overall: Recently, the production restrictions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were not as effective as previously shown in the market. Constrained by the under - expected demand in the steel spot market and the significant narrowing of steel mill profits, the steel market in the early part of September will face pressure from weak demand and the loss of cost support. However, this situation is unlikely to continue after mid - September. There is hope for a long - term slow - bull market in the steel market from mid - September to November, similar to the domestic stock index slow - bull trend from April to August [11]. 2. Industry News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on energy sustainable development on September 1, calling for deeper cooperation in the energy field [12]. - On September 2, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the logistics industry prosperity index for August, which expanded significantly. The business volume index and new order index continued to expand [12]. - Tianfeng Securities gave a "Buy" rating to China Shenhua, citing its integrated operation model, stable coal and power businesses, and high - return profit distribution plan [12]. - Five major traditional power generation companies achieved a total net profit of 24.267 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a new high since 2016 [13]. - According to CITIC Securities, the total net profit of sample coal companies decreased by about 32% year - on - year and 15% quarter - on - quarter in the first half of the year. However, the industry's supply - demand pattern may improve in the second half, and the coal price center may rise [13]. - The 62 - day railway summer transportation ended on August 31, with passenger and freight volumes reaching record highs [13]. - In July 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 24.98 billion US dollars, with exports showing significant growth [13]. - Fenix Resources signed a mining rights agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation [13]. - India's power generation increased by 4% in August, and the proportion of coal - fired power generation rose [13]. - Russia's Yakutia region plans to increase coal production to over 50 million tons in 2025 [13]. - In July 2025, global pig iron production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 4.4% year - on - year [13]. - The EU is taking measures to ensure that Russian gas will not be mixed into its supply system after the 2027 ban [14]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including spot prices, social inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates of steel products, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][25]

Core Insights - The logistics industry in China shows significant expansion in August, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Key sub-indices such as the total business volume index and new orders index continue to expand, indicating a positive trend in supply and demand [1] - The logistics service price index and main business profit index also saw a month-on-month increase, reflecting improved operational conditions for companies [2] Industry Performance - In August, logistics orders for outdoor leisure, fitness entertainment, local specialties, and seasonal fruits and vegetables increased by nearly 5% month-on-month [2] - The logistics demand in sectors like automotive parts manufacturing, electronic components manufacturing, and electrical machinery manufacturing has shown notable growth [2] - The railway, aviation, and express logistics sectors maintained a high prosperity level, supported by national policies [2] Investment and Economic Outlook - Fixed asset investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating continued growth in investment [1] - The business activity expectation index reached 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting enhanced market confidence [2] - The average business activity expectation index for the first eight months of the year was 55.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's logistics industry maintained an expansionary trend, with the logistics prosperity index rising to 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1][2]. Group 1: Logistics Prosperity Index - The logistics prosperity index for August was reported at 50.9%, indicating a recovery and sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1]. - The index reflects a rapid growth in logistics business volume and new order volume, supported by the implementation of policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and ensuring livelihoods [1][2]. Group 2: Sub-Indices Performance - Various sub-indices, including business volume index, new order index, inventory turnover index, capital turnover rate index, logistics service price index, fixed asset investment completion index, employment index, and business activity expectation index, all remained above 50%, indicating expansion [1]. - The business volume index specifically was at 50.9%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Regional Investment and Market Outlook - Fixed asset investment completion index remained in the expansion zone, with central and western regions achieving completion indices around 55% [2]. - The business activity expectation index rose to 55.8%, indicating positive market sentiment and expectations for stable growth in logistics demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is showing significant expansion in August, driven by effective policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and ensuring livelihoods, leading to improved supply chain and demand dynamics [1] Industry Performance - The logistics industry prosperity index for August is reported at 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Key sub-indices such as the total business volume index and new orders index continue to expand, with the total business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months and the new orders index for seven consecutive months [4] - The new orders index for railway, air transport, and postal express industries is above 55%, indicating a strong demand [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment index remains in the expansion zone, indicating continued growth in investment [8] - The logistics development in consumption and production sectors is stable, with improved micro vitality of enterprises and better operational conditions [8] Sector-Specific Insights - In August, logistics orders for outdoor leisure, fitness entertainment, local specialties, and seasonal fruits and vegetables increased by nearly 5% month-on-month [10] - Significant increases in logistics demand are noted in the automotive, electronic components, and electrical machinery manufacturing sectors, alongside stable demand for bulk energy consumption [10] Market Confidence - The business activity expectation index for August is at 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting enhanced market confidence [12] - The average business activity expectation index for the first eight months of the year is 55.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported an increase in the logistics industry prosperity index for August, indicating positive growth trends in both production and consumption logistics supported by national policies [1] Group 1: Logistics Industry Performance - The business activity expectation index for August is 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The average business activity expectation index for the first eight months of the year is 55.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Various sectors within the logistics industry, including railway, air, and express logistics, are maintaining a high prosperity level [1] Group 2: Market Confidence - The positive growth trends in logistics have led to improved confidence in industry expectations [1]