Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME nickel futures prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a current price of $16,985 per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.06% [1] - On February 13, LME nickel futures opened at $17,250 per ton, reached a high of $17,405, and a low of $16,870, closing at $16,995, which represents a decline of 1.48% [1] - The trading range for LME nickel futures on February 16 saw a maximum price of $17,025 and a minimum of $16,870 [1] Group 2 - As of February 13, the registered nickel warrants at LME totaled 276,642 tons, with 10,446 tons being canceled, an increase of 420 tons [2] - The total nickel inventory at LME reached 287,088 tons, which is an increase of 702 tons [2]

Core Insights - LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with aluminum reaching its highest level since April 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,024, down $159, a decrease of 1.21% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,212.5, up $17, an increase of 0.53%, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,358.5, up $7.5, an increase of 0.22% [1] - Lead closed at $2,028, down $8, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Tin was reported at $54,865, up $370, an increase of 0.68% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,235, down $355, a decrease of 1.91% [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a logistics industry prosperity index of 52.4% for December 2025, an increase of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, marking the highest level of the year, indicating sustained demand in the real economy logistics business [1][6] - Key indicators such as the total business volume index, equipment utilization index, new orders index, capital turnover index, and employment index are all in the expansion range and have rebounded month-on-month [1][6] - By region, the business volume indices for the eastern, central, and western regions are 51.7%, 52%, and 52.9%, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.2, 1.0, and 1.7 percentage points [1][6] Group 2: Peripheral Markets and Related Assets - On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.99% to reach a new high, the Nasdaq increasing by 0.65%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.62% [3][8] - Among large tech stocks, Microsoft rose over 1%, Amazon increased over 3%, while Nvidia slightly declined, and Apple, Google, and Tesla fell by over 1%, 1%, and 4%, respectively [3][8] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.82%, with significant declines in stocks such as Haitong Network down 15.27%, and others like Artis, BOSS Zhipin, and Tims China down over 6% [3][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - In the domestic commodity futures market, the main contract for nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit with an increase of 8%, priced at 147,720 yuan per ton; London nickel rose over 10%, reaching the highest level since June 2024 at 18,735 USD per ton [4][9] - Additionally, the main contract for stainless steel rose by 4% to 13,895 yuan, tin increased by 5% to 357,920 yuan, and coking coal and alumina rose by 6% and 5%, respectively, with glass and soda ash contracts also increasing by over 4% [4][9] - In the international precious metals market, spot gold surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce, and New York futures gold exceeded 4,510 USD per ounce; spot silver and New York futures silver both broke through 82 USD per ounce, with daily increases exceeding 0.9% [4][9] Group 4: Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Xiaomi Group issued a penalty statement regarding the involvement of KOLs, stating that the responsible personnel were dismissed, and the Group's Vice President and CMO Xu Fei, along with the Public Relations General Manager Xu Jieyun, were criticized for management failures, resulting in the deduction of related performance for 2025 and cancellation of annual bonuses [5][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel continued its strong momentum, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots. The sharp rise in nickel prices has driven up the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price has risen to 28,215 yuan/ton. The rebound in LME nickel prices will also drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, and the nickel salt price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. The market is highly volatile, and investors should participate with caution [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel maintained a strong trend, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots [7]. - The sharp rise in nickel prices has led to continuous increases in the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price on the 5th has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and it is considered a short - term rebound. Given the weak terminal consumption, the upside space may be limited. The nickel salt price has risen significantly to 28,215 yuan/ton, and the rebound in LME nickel prices will drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, with the nickel salt price continuing to rise in the short term [7]. - Stimulated by the news of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, market speculation sentiment remains high. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set the nickel production target at around 290 million tons in 2026 to match the smelter capacity. Before the policy is finalized, it will continue to provide upward momentum for nickel prices, and the market will be highly volatile [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) stated that the government's nickel ore production target in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. The purpose is to prevent further decline in nickel prices, but the implementation method is still unclear [8]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement a new position limit rule from July next year to follow the requirements of the UK financial regulator. The new rule will cover key contracts, including core futures products such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of trading strategies and the impact of market changes on traditional trading rules established by the author of "The Wall Street Ghost" [2][3][4] - It highlights the shift from a simpler market structure to a more complex environment dominated by algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading, which has altered the timing and validation of trades [2][6] - The author introduces a new "credit limit" system to adapt to modern market conditions, allowing positions to oscillate near the cost line without immediate liquidation [3][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the dangers of adding positions in volatile markets, contrasting past successful strategies with current risks associated with high leverage and rapid market movements [4][5] - It outlines a new approach to position sizing and adding to positions, focusing on independent entry reasons and market depth rather than simply relying on existing profits [5][6] - The concept of "giant volume" has changed, with the author noting that much of the volume in today's market is generated by algorithmic trading and does not necessarily indicate genuine market sentiment [6][7] Group 3 - The article concludes with a reflection on the importance of maintaining rituals in trading, which provide a sense of stability amid the uncertainties of the market [8][9] - It suggests that while trading rules may evolve, the underlying principles of risk management, discipline, and humility remain timeless and essential for traders [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, with an unchanged oversupply pattern and approaching lower costs, being more affected by macro - sentiment. Stainless steel prices may stop falling and rebound in the short term, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, and the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 7 consecutive times, also influenced by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,620 yuan/ton and closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 196,852 lots, and the open interest was 98,903 lots, a daily change of - 10,364. Overnight, LME nickel prices rose 2.04% to $15,280/ton. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly between 120,620 - 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 121,690 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton or 1.11%. During the day session, it continued to rise, reaching a high of 122,690 yuan/ton, a two - week high. However, the open interest decreased by about 9.5% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 had transactions. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mine quotations were firm, and the impact of rainfall on shipping efficiency was small. Downstream nickel - iron had new transactions, but iron plants were still cautious and price - pressing in nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to fall by $0.2 - 0.3, and the current mainstream premium remained at + 24, with the September (Phase 1) premium likely to remain unchanged [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,500 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was a bit light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,025 (- 61.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (72) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,526 lots, and the open interest was 128,，304 lots, a daily change of - 5,355. Overnight, boosted by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weakening dollar, the main contract quickly rose to 12,915 yuan/ton after opening at 12,850 yuan/ton, then fluctuated narrowly around 12,870. During the day session, it was driven up slightly by Shanghai nickel prices but then fell back due to the weak spot market, closing at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.12% [3]. - **Spot**: The trading heat in the spot market rebounded slightly as the futures market stabilized. Traders' quotations were still cautious as downstream acceptance of high prices was low despite approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 480 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.00 yuan/nickel point to 940.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term stainless steel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].