一、宏观经济与市场分析 中国物流与采购联合会发布2025年12月份中国物流业景气指数为52.4%，环比上升1.5个百分点，创全年 最高，实体经济物流业务需求持续活跃。 主要指标中，业务总量指数、设备利用率指数、新订单指数、资金周转率指数、从业人员指数均处于扩 张区间且环比回升。 分区域看，东部、中部、西部地区业务总量指数分别为51.7%、52%和52.9%，环比分别上升1.2、1.0和 1.7个百分点。 2025年四季度物流业务总量指数均值为51.3%，较三季度高出0.4个百分点。 二、外围市场与关联资产 周二美股三大股指收盘普涨，道指涨0.99%续创新高，纳指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.62%。 大型科技股中，微软涨超1%，亚马逊涨超3%，而英伟达微跌，苹果跌超1%，谷歌跌近1%，特斯拉跌 超4%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.82%，成分股中，海天网络跌15.27%，阿特斯、BOSS直聘、Tims中国均 跌超6%，老虎证券跌5.98%。 三、大宗商品市场动态 小米集团就接触KOL一事发布处罚声明：涉事经办人员被辞退，集团副总裁兼CMO许斐、公关部总经 理徐洁云因管理失职被通报批评，扣除2025年相关 ...

行业 镍日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 26 年首个交易日沪镍延续偏强势头运行，盘中继续刷新阶段性高点至 13.6 万/吨以上，收盘回落至 13.4 万/吨，较上日收涨 0.57%，总持仓增加 1.8 万手至 35.7 万手。镍价大幅上涨带动产业链其他产品价格也在持续攀升，5 日 NPI 报价 已经增至 930 元/镍点，短期保持反弹对待，在终端消费疲弱基本面未改背景下上 方空间或有限；镍盐价格则大幅上涨至 28215 元/吨，而伦镍价格反弹亦会带动镍 盐即期成本走高 ...

我有一间十二平方米的办公室，朝北。里面有一把皮质稍有磨损的摇椅，扶手处磨出了金属底色。办公 桌上摆着一个会自动报时的电子钟，每到整点它就用冰冷的机械女声播报时间。这些物件已经跟随我十 五年，从郑州商品交易所旁的老楼，到陆家嘴的高层，再到这间家庭办公室。 每天上午八点半，我会完成一套固定程序：二十分钟的拉伸，一次不超过十分钟的温水淋浴，面向东方 静立片刻（这只是一种很好的静心方式）。然后，我会从书架上抽出一本边角已经卷起的《孙子兵 法》，读任意一页。九点整，电子钟报时，我坐进那把摇椅，面对六块亮起的屏幕。 这是我的"战斗"仪式。而教会我建立这种仪式的，是二十五年前一位从未露面的老师——《华尔街幽 灵》的作者。2023年春天，当伦镍以史诗级逼空行情撕裂市场时，我无数次翻开这本薄薄的册子。摇椅 吱呀作响，电子钟准点报时，但屏幕上的世界，早已不是"幽灵"所描述的模样。 规则一：当"立即正确"成为不可能的任务 "只持有正确的仓位。"我在交易日志的扉页用红笔抄写着"幽灵"的第一法则。2008年刚入行时，这句话 是我的"圣经"。那时的市场简单得多：早盘开市，午盘休息，下午收盘。一个基于日线突破的头寸，通 常会在两三天内给出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, with an unchanged oversupply pattern and approaching lower costs, being more affected by macro - sentiment. Stainless steel prices may stop falling and rebound in the short term, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, and the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 7 consecutive times, also influenced by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,620 yuan/ton and closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 196,852 lots, and the open interest was 98,903 lots, a daily change of - 10,364. Overnight, LME nickel prices rose 2.04% to $15,280/ton. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly between 120,620 - 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 121,690 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton or 1.11%. During the day session, it continued to rise, reaching a high of 122,690 yuan/ton, a two - week high. However, the open interest decreased by about 9.5% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 had transactions. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mine quotations were firm, and the impact of rainfall on shipping efficiency was small. Downstream nickel - iron had new transactions, but iron plants were still cautious and price - pressing in nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to fall by $0.2 - 0.3, and the current mainstream premium remained at + 24, with the September (Phase 1) premium likely to remain unchanged [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,500 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was a bit light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,025 (- 61.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (72) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,526 lots, and the open interest was 128,，304 lots, a daily change of - 5,355. Overnight, boosted by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weakening dollar, the main contract quickly rose to 12,915 yuan/ton after opening at 12,850 yuan/ton, then fluctuated narrowly around 12,870. During the day session, it was driven up slightly by Shanghai nickel prices but then fell back due to the weak spot market, closing at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.12% [3]. - **Spot**: The trading heat in the spot market rebounded slightly as the futures market stabilized. Traders' quotations were still cautious as downstream acceptance of high prices was low despite approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 480 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.00 yuan/nickel point to 940.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term stainless steel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].