本报记者 彭妍 "在流动性持续宽松的市场环境下，依靠高息揽储的传统模式难以为继。从行业发展趋势来看，短期内理财产品收益率将 呈现普遍性下调态势，同时差异化定价策略也将加速涌现。预计未来3个月至6个月内，超过70%的理财产品将主动下调业绩比 较基准。"田利辉补充说。 与此同时，多家理财子公司发布投研观点，为投资者在低利率环境下的资产配置提供指引。华夏理财表示，目前不妨考虑 持有短债类理财，以承受较低的风险去把握流动性红利带来的机会。农银理财表示，降准释放的流动性红利+政策利率调降， 利好存单、短期信用债等短债资产。建议优先布局短债类配置为主的短期限固收类理财产品，锁定当前利率高位。 田利辉认为，银行理财市场正经历利率下行期的深度调整，机构需通过产品创新与风险管理平衡收益与流动性：一方面， 银行机构亟需推进产品迭代，开发短期限、高流动性产品（如30天期理财），匹配当前低利率环境下客户的避险需求。另一方 面，银行亟需强化成本控制与风险管理。需要考虑发行同业存单置换高成本存款，降低负债端压力。可以运用利率衍生工具 （如利率互换）对冲债券组合的久期风险，稳定净值波动。 自中国人民银行5月7日宣布降准降息后，银行理财市场 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a contraction in the scale of the wealth management market, with a total size of 29.14 trillion yuan as of Q1 2025, a decrease of approximately 810 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1][2] - Despite the contraction in scale, the number of investors in wealth management products continues to grow, reaching 126 million by the end of Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.73% [5] - Wealth management products generated a total return of 206 billion yuan for investors in Q1 2025, with banks contributing 32 billion yuan and wealth management companies contributing 174 billion yuan [5] Market Size and Trends - In Q1 2025, a total of 127 banks and 31 wealth management companies launched 7,900 new products, raising 11.828 trillion yuan [2] - The number of existing wealth management products reached 40,600, an increase of 0.67% year-on-year, while the total scale increased by 9.41% compared to the previous year [2] - The decline in wealth management scale is attributed to the performance of wealth management yields and seasonal fluctuations at the end of the quarter [2][3] Yield Performance - The average annualized yield for fixed-income wealth management products showed a downward trend, with yields for different time frames decreasing month by month [3] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the annualized yield for the past three months was 1.18%, slightly higher than the 1.1% yield for major banks' one-year negotiable certificates of deposit [3] - The average performance benchmark for newly issued open-ended and closed-end products in Q1 2025 was 2.25% and 2.75%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous quarter [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the wealth management scale may enter a growth phase in Q2 2025, driven by stabilized interest rates and a return of funds to wealth management products [3][6] - The estimated increase in wealth management scale for 2025 is projected to be between 2 trillion and 3 trillion yuan, with an expected year-end scale of 32 trillion to 33 trillion yuan [6] - Factors influencing future performance include bond market interest rate trends, stock market conditions, and changes in investor risk appetite [6]

从理财市场一季报来看，2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。资产配置方面，一季度理财产品增 配同业资产，减配存款和同业存单。展望来看，随着二季度债市修复和银行负债压力减弱，理财规模有望重回景气扩张。从银 行板块投资看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对 价值显著。 ▍ 事项： 本周银行业理财登记托管中心发布《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2 0 2 5年一季度）》；中共中央政治局4月2 5日召开会议， 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 ▍ 市场规模：2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元。 1）2 0 2 5Q1年末理财存续规模2 9 . 1 4万亿元，同比增长9 . 4 1%，较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。 2 0 2 5年一季 度，理财市场整体景气度处于低位，当季债市波动较大影响理财收益率，根据我们的样本测算，2 0 2 5Q1纯债型和非纯债型固 收类理财产品平均年化收益率分别为1 . 5 6%/ 1 . 3 7%（2 0 2 4Q1分别为 ...