Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the sugar production in the 2024/25 season is settled at 1.11621 billion tons, up 119,890 tons year - on - year. The sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. With an expected import of over 400,000 tons in May, the overall supply faces pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are under downward pressure. However, the high basis provides some support, and it may face strong resistance below 5,700 yuan/ton, with a possible short - term bottom - building rebound [60]. - Internationally, Petrobras cut the average gasoline price by 5.6% on June 3. The estimated sugar production in India for the 2025/26 season is about 3.5 billion tons. The short - term international sugar price is under pressure with limited upside, but the Brazilian production progress and weather factors need attention. The downside space below 17 cents/pound is relatively limited [60]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated to find the bottom this week, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed content about spot price and basis trends is provided other than the data source [13]. - **National Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Imports**: In April, 130,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil and Thailand are provided [24]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In May 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 32,210 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 29,893, a decrease of 1,688 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 29,893, and the valid forecast was 0 [35]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%, and the sugar production was 398,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [39]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.61%, compared with 47.6% last year [41]. - **Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports**: In April, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared with the same period last year [51]. - **International Main Production Area Weather**: In India, the monsoon brought increased precipitation. In Brazil, increased rainfall in the main production areas was unfavorable for sugarcane crushing [55][56]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: With production determined and sales leading, supply pressure exists, but high basis provides support. There may be a short - term bottom - building rebound. - International market: Gasoline price cuts in Brazil and expected high production in India put pressure on sugar prices, but attention should be paid to Brazilian production and weather [60].

Report Title - "Long - Term Fundamentals Under Pressure, Limited Upside for Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - Guoxin Futures' Weekly Sugar Report", dated April 20, 2025 [2] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, short - term new supply of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but there is pressure for a supply increase in the medium term, and weather risks remain. It is expected to fluctuate between 5850 - 6100 yuan/ton. Internationally, short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [59] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures had a narrow - range fluctuation this week with a weekly increase of 0.15%. ICE sugar futures had a weak oscillation with a weekly decline of 0.34% [11] - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in March was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year [20] - **Sugar Import Situation**: From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a decrease of 1.11 million tons compared to the same period last year. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost was 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6719 yuan/ton [25] - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in March was 4.7521 million tons, a decrease of 86,500 tons compared to the same period last year [28] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 0 compared to last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [36] - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the second half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.98%, and sugar production was 40.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.31% [40] - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in central and southern Brazil was 48.05%, compared to 48.87% in the same period last year [43] - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In March, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 390 tons [47] - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: Rainfall decreased in Brazil's main production areas, and the production progress was faster than the same period. Precipitation in India changed little [55][56] 3.2 Market Outlook for the Future - **Domestic Market**: This week, the impact of the macro - aspect dissipated, and the market gradually shifted to fundamentals. The industrial inventory started to decline month - on - month in March, indicating that the domestic inventory peak has passed. The drought in Guangxi has intensified, raising concerns about the emergence of new - season sugarcane seedlings. If the drought persists, ratoon cane may also be affected, posing a significant threat to next - year's production. In terms of later supply, an import window has emerged, and it is highly likely that imports will surge in May [59] - **International Market**: The production report of southern Brazil for the second half of March had a negative impact on the market. The sugar - making ratio was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and also higher than market expectations. From the perspective of the sugar - alcohol ratio, sugar production is very attractive, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. In terms of weather, the decrease in rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for the sugar - cane crushing season. It is expected that the supply data will still show a large year - on - year increase, continuously putting pressure on the market. As of April 15, 2025, India had cumulatively crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane, producing 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills had not finished crushing, having cumulatively crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. There is a certain probability that this year's production will be less than 26 million tons [59]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Risk Released, Zhengzhou Sugar Volatility Declines - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: April 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Domestic market: Affected by macro - tariff policies this week, the market was bearish, dragging down sugar prices. The 2505 contract tested the 6000 yuan/ton level, and the main contract switched to 2509. With the digestion of macro - negative impacts, Zhengzhou sugar recovered later in the week. Macro risks have been released. Domestically, production is nearing an end, consumption is in the off - season, but good inventory depletion keeps spot prices firm. Zhengzhou sugar may return to a wide - range oscillation with lower volatility [59]. - International market: The continuous decline in crude oil prices due to US tariffs has raised concerns about a significant increase in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. However, historical data shows limited marginal increases. Brazil has more rainfall, which may affect the start of the crushing season and support international sugar prices. Short - term raw sugar will test the 17.8 cents/pound support and is expected to turn to an oscillatory trend [59]. - Operation suggestion: Focus on short - term trading [60] Group 4: Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures: The price of Zhengzhou sugar dropped this week, with a weekly decline of 2.04% [12]. - ICE sugar futures: The price declined, with a weekly drop of 4.33% [12]. Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific data on spot price and basis trends are detailed in the report. National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. Sugar Imports - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6719 yuan/ton [28]. Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared to the same period last year [31]. ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 1366 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [39]. Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [43]. Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative bi - weekly sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared to 48.96% in the same period last year [45]. Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In March, Brazil's sugar exports were 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 tons [48]. International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil's main producing areas, rainfall increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared to the same period [55]. - In India, precipitation increased slightly [56]