进口量增加，抑制白糖上方空间 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 白糖市场周报 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑糖2601合约价格反弹，周度涨幅约0.11%。 国际方面，一方面，亚洲主要产糖国生产前景良好，全球供应预期偏松，另 一反面，市场担忧2025/26年度巴西甘蔗含糖量，且需求有改善迹象，原糖维 持低位震荡行情。国内方面，配额外利润窗口持续打开，进口压力释放，7月 食糖进口量环比大幅增加，为近十年同期最高，8-9月仍是高峰期。甜菜糖9 月开榨，届时供应阶段性增加。需求端，后市双节备货启动，需求有望增加。 库存方面，因前期产销进度良好，库存压力不大，但加工糖数量增加，当前 去库存进程明显放缓。新作方面，新榨季产量预计保持在近四年以来高位。 总体来说，目前国产糖库存压力不大，且短时间双节备货预期，为白糖价格 带来支撑，外盘价格低位震荡，外弱内强格局明显。不过与其同时，进口大 幅增 ...

2025年8月17日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 研究所 郑糖反弹后转为震荡 现货回升 ——国信期货白糖周报 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 郑糖本周反弹，周度涨幅1.63%。 ICE期糖低位回升，周度涨幅1.91%。 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 0 5 10 15 20 25 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 2、广西、云南销售情况 研究所 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 140 160 11月 12月 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 30 35 7月 8月 9月 2019/20 2020/21 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market lacks information guidance and will mainly undergo low - level consolidation. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The 24/25 sugar - making season is likely to see a large global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production increases and inventory accumulation in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The downward trend of New York raw sugar has ended, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][35] - The domestic market will experience range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market maintains the expectation of continuous production increase and cost reduction. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, and domestic prices will move closer to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [3][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 98.46 (previous value 97.87), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.55 (previous value 5.57) [6] - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $66.03 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96% [6] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 16.79 cents per pound, an increase of 1.39%. The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 6040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5826 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton compared to last week. The basis of the main contract is basically flat [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 21,477 lots [15] - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of July 15, fund long positions increased by 2480 lots, fund short positions decreased by 2682 lots, and net long positions increased by 5162 lots to - 94,560 lots, with a slight increase in net long positions [15] 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [24] - Brazil: As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 206 million tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 12.25 million tons, a 14% decrease; alcohol production was 9.43 billion liters, a 15% decrease; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [24] - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons [24] - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [25] - China's supply - demand data: CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11.16 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season; and production of 11.2 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season. Customs data shows that in June 2025, sugar imports were 420,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 2.51 million tons [15][25] - China's production - sales data: As of the end of May, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The national sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69% [15][25] 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Lack information guidance and mainly conduct low - level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [35] - Domestic market: Conduct range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. Trading is centered around the import rhythm, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the previous rebound of Zhengzhou sugar caused by capital games has ended, and the market has turned to consolidation. The main short - position has reversed to a net long - position, which may support the sugar price to rebound further if the long - position increases. The domestic market is influenced by macro anti - involution and shows a bullish trend. The spot market has improved with rising prices. The upcoming June production and sales data is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Low inventory still supports prices, but attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar. The operating range is expected to be between 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. - In the international market, the raw sugar market has calmed down after significant fluctuations. The international market is still pressured by Brazil's large supply, but the market is not optimistic about Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June, with an expected year - on - year decline of 9.8% to 295,000 tons. Purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines in the international market may limit the downside of international sugar prices [59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. ICE sugar futures fluctuated slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.67% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific data on price and basis trends are described in the provided text. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4580 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import cost was 5822 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 23,040, a decrease of 480 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 22,934, and the effective forecast was 106 [33]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%, and the sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [37]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.45%, compared with 48.33% in the same period last year [39]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24% [45]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: There was little rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [53][55]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar market is expected to operate in the range of 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar [59]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar market is expected to have limited downside due to purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines, despite pressure from Brazil's supply [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the sugar production in the 2024/25 season is settled at 1.11621 billion tons, up 119,890 tons year - on - year. The sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. With an expected import of over 400,000 tons in May, the overall supply faces pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are under downward pressure. However, the high basis provides some support, and it may face strong resistance below 5,700 yuan/ton, with a possible short - term bottom - building rebound [60]. - Internationally, Petrobras cut the average gasoline price by 5.6% on June 3. The estimated sugar production in India for the 2025/26 season is about 3.5 billion tons. The short - term international sugar price is under pressure with limited upside, but the Brazilian production progress and weather factors need attention. The downside space below 17 cents/pound is relatively limited [60]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated to find the bottom this week, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed content about spot price and basis trends is provided other than the data source [13]. - **National Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Imports**: In April, 130,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil and Thailand are provided [24]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In May 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 32,210 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 29,893, a decrease of 1,688 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 29,893, and the valid forecast was 0 [35]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%, and the sugar production was 398,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [39]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.61%, compared with 47.6% last year [41]. - **Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports**: In April, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared with the same period last year [51]. - **International Main Production Area Weather**: In India, the monsoon brought increased precipitation. In Brazil, increased rainfall in the main production areas was unfavorable for sugarcane crushing [55][56]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: With production determined and sales leading, supply pressure exists, but high basis provides support. There may be a short - term bottom - building rebound. - International market: Gasoline price cuts in Brazil and expected high production in India put pressure on sugar prices, but attention should be paid to Brazilian production and weather [60].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Risk Released, Zhengzhou Sugar Volatility Declines - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: April 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Domestic market: Affected by macro - tariff policies this week, the market was bearish, dragging down sugar prices. The 2505 contract tested the 6000 yuan/ton level, and the main contract switched to 2509. With the digestion of macro - negative impacts, Zhengzhou sugar recovered later in the week. Macro risks have been released. Domestically, production is nearing an end, consumption is in the off - season, but good inventory depletion keeps spot prices firm. Zhengzhou sugar may return to a wide - range oscillation with lower volatility [59]. - International market: The continuous decline in crude oil prices due to US tariffs has raised concerns about a significant increase in Brazil's sugar - making ratio. However, historical data shows limited marginal increases. Brazil has more rainfall, which may affect the start of the crushing season and support international sugar prices. Short - term raw sugar will test the 17.8 cents/pound support and is expected to turn to an oscillatory trend [59]. - Operation suggestion: Focus on short - term trading [60] Group 4: Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures: The price of Zhengzhou sugar dropped this week, with a weekly decline of 2.04% [12]. - ICE sugar futures: The price declined, with a weekly drop of 4.33% [12]. Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific data on spot price and basis trends are detailed in the report. National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. Sugar Imports - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost is 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 6719 yuan/ton [28]. Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared to the same period last year [31]. ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 1366 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [39]. Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [43]. Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative bi - weekly sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared to 48.96% in the same period last year [45]. Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In March, Brazil's sugar exports were 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 tons [48]. International Main Producing Region Weather - In Brazil's main producing areas, rainfall increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared to the same period [55]. - In India, precipitation increased slightly [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic sugar price is expected to continue rising due to the support of fundamentals, with potential upside. The international sugar price is also expected to remain strong due to a tight supply - demand pattern [58] - The operation suggestion is to adopt a short - term bullish approach [59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. ICE sugar futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [15] 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - Data not elaborated in the summary part 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5,188 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,615 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 5,268 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,719 yuan per ton [25] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared with the same period last year [28] 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 27,410, a decrease of 560 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecast was 0 [36] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [40] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared with 48.96% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in February were 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.44%. In the 2024/25 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 33.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% [45] 3.1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - Rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared with the same period. Precipitation in India increased slightly [54][55] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Domestic sugar prices are oscillating upwards, reaching new highs. It is driven by the strong performance of the international market and supported by domestic fundamentals. The sugar sales progress is faster than the same period, imports are tightened, and the pressure on domestic sugar mills is light, with firm spot prices. There may still be room for sugar prices to rise [58] 3.2.2 International Market - The northern hemisphere is at the end of the sugar - making season, but there is still a dispute over India's production. If India's production is lower than expected, there may be imports in the third quarter. Brazil's production has started, and the initial crushing progress has a significant short - term impact on the market. The overall supply - demand pattern is tight, and international sugar prices are expected to remain strong [58]