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纸浆数据日报-20250605
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 08:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 4, 2025, SP2601 was 5250, up 0.23% day - on - day and 0.65% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5298, down 0.11% day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5236, up 0.27% day - on - day and 1.00% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150, down 0.81% day - on - day and week - on - week; Knitted Coniferous was 5320, down 1.48% day - on - day and 0.56% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, down 0.72% day - on - day and up 0.49% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, unchanged; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports in April 2025**: Coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; Broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month [1] - **Shipments to China**: In April 2025, shipments of coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and shipments of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year - on - year. In March 2025, shipments to China were 1813, up 20.70% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Production**: In late May 2025, broadleaf pulp production fluctuated around 20 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was around 20 tons [1] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase [1] - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, it was 25.20 tons, down from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: In late May 2025, among the main finished paper products, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid purchases [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 4, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 22, with a quantile level of 0.755; the Silver Star basis was 852, with a quantile level of 0.971 [1] - **Import Profit**: On June 4, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104, with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467, with a quantile level of 0.206 [1] Summary - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk quotes were flat. Broadleaf pulp is expected to resume partial supply in July (limited quantity) [1] - **Demand**: The implementation of price increase letters from cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid purchases. The output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, pulp port inventory showed a slight accumulation trend [1] - **Strategy**: Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]
纸浆数据日报-20250604
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5238, down 1.32% day - on - day and 1.17% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5414, down 1.42% day - on - day and up 1.65% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5222, down 1.36% day - on - day and 1.47% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.80% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.92% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Import costs decreased. For example, Chilean Silver Star's import cost decreased from 6289 to 6046, a 3.87% decline [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The shipment of pulp to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, up 20.70% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.1 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase. The inventory showed a slight accumulation trend [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid procurement. Among the main finished paper products, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, while the output of other paper types remained stable [1]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: The Russian Needle basis was - 14, with a quantile level of 0.67; the Silver Star basis was 786, with a quantile level of 0.958 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 154, with a quantile level of 0.808; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 437, with a quantile level of 0.219 [1].
纸浆数据日报-20250529
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:03
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The current demand for pulp is weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5234 with a 0.35% change and -1.91% compared to the same period; SP2507 was 5326 with a 0.99% change and -1.73% compared to the same period; SP2509 was 5214 with a 0.58% change and -2.32% compared to the same period [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150 with a -0.81% change and -1.60% compared to the same period; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5320 with a -0.56% change and -2.39% compared to the same period; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4100 with a 0.00% change and -2.38% compared to the same period [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Outer - disk quotes for Chilean Silver Star decreased by 3.90% to 740 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 11.11% to 560 dollars, and Chilean Venus decreased by 4.62% to 620 dollars. Import costs for Chilean Silver Star decreased by 3.87% to 6046 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 11.00% to 4587 dollars, and Chilean Venus decreased by 4.57% to 5073 dollars [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, a -5.01% month - on - month decrease; hardwood pulp imports were 119.9 tons, an -18.44% month - on - month decrease. The pulp shipment volume to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, a 20.70% month - on - month increase. Domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed some fluctuations. The pulp port inventory on May 22, 2025, was 215.7 tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [1]. - **Demand**: Among the main finished paper production, the production of white cardboard increased slightly, while the production of other paper types remained stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 215.7 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6 with a quantile level of 0.694, and the Silver Star basis was 824 with a quantile level of 0.968 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104 with a quantile level of 0.78, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was -487 with a quantile level of 0.2 [1]. Summary and Strategy - **Summary**: On the supply side, Arauco in Chile announced its May 2025 pulp outer - disk prices, and the shipment volume of coniferous and hardwood pulp to China in April 2025 had different changes. On the demand side, the implementation of price increase letters was poor, and downstream purchases were based on rigid demand. On the inventory side, the inventory showed a destocking trend [1]. - **Strategy**: The current pulp demand is weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner [1].