投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 LET 500 FR 2 1 2 1 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要】 影教据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5142 | -0 ...

策略: 纸浆基本面仍无修复迹象, 纸浆港口库存和仓单数量无明显去化, 纸浆期货偏弱运行;考虑11-1反套。 == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月29日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月29日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5174 | -1.86% | -2. 16% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | -0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and there is no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. In the short term, it will still operate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese Utsumi was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper was relatively stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard paper mills issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 15, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the Silver Star basis was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5] Market Situation and Strategy - **Supply - side**: Brazilian Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable [5] - **Inventory - side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory change was not significant, and the commodity market was running strongly in the short term due to the anti - involution sentiment [5] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and it will still operate weakly in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Pulp Price Data - On September 2, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2509 were 5344, 5042, and 4990 respectively, with daily changes of 0.15%, 0.04%, and 0.08% and weekly changes of -0.55%, -0.60% respectively [1] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were 5720, 5200, and 4200 respectively, with daily changes of 0.35%, 1.96%, and 0.48% and weekly changes of -1.38%, 0.39%, and 1.20% respectively [1] - Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 720, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.70%, 3.92%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5884, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.68%, 3.87%, and 0.00% respectively [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72% compared to June [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to June [1] - On August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse on August 28, 2025, was 24.9 tons [1] - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on August 28, 2025, were 20.50, 7.90, 28.18, and 32.10 tons respectively [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 2, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle and Silver Star were 158 and 678 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.881 and 0.898 [1] - On September 2, 2025, the import profits of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were - 164 and - 144 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.368 and 0.503 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazilian Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, the supply of broadleaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products is basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are oscillating after a significant decline due to macro - commodity factors. The supply side has companies like Brazil's Suzano raising prices and Chile's Arauco adjusting prices and supply. The demand for paper products is basically stable, with some paper mills issuing price - increase letters. The inventory is showing a de - stocking trend [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Price**: On August 29, 2025, SP2601 was 5344, up 0.68% daily and down 0.37% weekly; SP2511 was 5018, up 0.32% daily and down 1.76% weekly; SP2509 was 4966, up 0.40% daily and down 1.82% weekly [1] - **Spot Price**: On August 29, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5700, unchanged daily and down 1.72% weekly; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged daily and down 0.97% weekly; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180, unchanged daily and up 0.72% weekly [1] - **Outer - disk Quotation**: In August 2025, the outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Cost**: In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp ranged from 20.5 to 21.3 tons; chemical mechanical pulp ranged from 20.7 to 21.5 tons [1] - **Shipping Volume**: In July 2025, the shipping volume of pulp to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1] - **Inventory** - **Pulp Port Inventory**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory ranged from 204.8 to 218.1 tons [1] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory ranged from 25.2 to 25.6 tons [1] - **Demand**: From July 17 to August 28, 2025, the output of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated within a certain range [1] 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 82 with a quantile level of 0.832; the Silver Star basis was 682 with a quantile level of 0.902 [1] - **Import Profit**: On August 29, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 184 with a quantile level of 0.338; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 2 with a quantile level of 0.629 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market showed mixed trends on August 25, 2025, with some contracts rising day - on - day but falling week - on - week. The demand for paper products is stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices. The inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to do a reverse spread between the 11 - contract and the 1 - contract [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, up 0.71% day - on - day and down 1.35% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5136, up 0.55% day - on - day and down 2.21% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5088, up 0.59% day - on - day and down 2.15% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5800, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5180, up 0.58% day - on - day and down 2.26% week - on - week; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Japanese - Western - American was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month. The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream paper pulp ports increased by 2.5% month - on - month [1] - **Demand - side**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] Paper Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 44, with a quantile level of 0.785; the Silver Star basis was 664, with a quantile level of 0.895 [1] - **Import Profit**: On August 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 84, with a quantile level of 0.477; that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.612 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with reduced supply [1] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices [1]

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - SP2601 futures price was 5472, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 1.41% [1] - SP2605 futures price was 5452, with a daily decrease of 0.70% and a weekly decrease of 1.17% [1] - SP2509 futures price was 5202, with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly increase of 0.66% [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, with no daily or weekly change [1] - Spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250, with a daily and weekly increase of 1.35% [1] - Spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a weekly increase of 0.73% [1] - Chilean Silver Star's foreign - market quotation was 720, a monthly decrease of 2.70% [1] - Brazilian Goldfish's foreign - market quotation was 510, a monthly increase of 4.08% [1] - Chilean Venus's foreign - market quotation was 620, with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a monthly decrease of 6.09% compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a monthly increase of 3.30% compared to April [1] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had certain fluctuations [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, with a monthly decrease of 2.7% [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - On August 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 648, with a quantile level of 0.89 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.546; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.61 [1] Group 4: Market News Supply - side - Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase for the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity paper - pulp output in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity [1] - Asia Symbol announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the order - receiving price of broad - leaf pulp, only supplying long - term contract customers [1] Strategy - Paper - pulp futures are expected to run strongly [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]

Group 1: Paper Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: SP2601 was 5404 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 2.53%; SP2605 was 5388 with a daily decrease of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.07%; SP2509 was 5160 with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 3.98% [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.18%; Russian Needle was 5180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 4.43%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4080 with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.69% [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars with a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 500 dollars with a monthly decrease of 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars with no monthly change [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884 with a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4101 with a monthly decrease of 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no monthly change [1] Group 2: Paper Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume: In June 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease from May; Hardwood pulp import volume data was not shown in a comparable way here [1] - Shipment volume: The shipment volume of paper pulp to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, a 3.3% increase from April [1] - Company offer: Chilean Arauco announced July wood pulp outer - disk quotes. Coniferous pulp Silver Star had no new offer; Venus was priced at 590 dollars per ton, and Uruguayan Hardwood pulp New Star was 500 dollars per ton [1] Demand - Main finished paper production: This week, the production of main finished papers decreased slightly, and paper prices were low, providing weak support for paper pulp [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese paper pulp main ports was 210.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 1.8% decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [2] Group 3: Paper Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On August 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 20 with a quantile level of 0.739; Silver Star basis was 690 with a quantile level of 0.914 [1] - Import profit: Coniferous pulp Silver Star's import profit was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 21 with a quantile level of 0.613 [1] Group 4: Strategy - This week, paper pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pulp supply is increasing while prices are decreasing, with the Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers showing certain trends and the May shipment volume to China increasing by 3.3% [1] - The demand side shows a slight decline in the output of major finished paper products this week, and the low prices of finished paper provide weak support for pulp [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 210.5 tons, showing a destocking trend with a 1.8% month - on - month decrease [1][2] - Pulp futures are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and this week's commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 [2] Summary by Directory Price Data - On July 31, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2509 decreased by 1.45% and 1.76% respectively compared to the previous day, while SP2605 increased by 0.86% [1] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp such as Russian needle and broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish decreased by 2.21% and 0.72% respectively [1] - The foreign market quotations of Chilean Silver Star and Chilean Star decreased by 2.70% and 10.71% respectively, and the import costs decreased by 2.68% and 10.60% respectively [1] Fundamental Data - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% compared to April [1] - The output of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, toilet paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly this week [1] Valuation Data - On July 31, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 0.825, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 0.889 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, and that of broad - leaf pulp Golden was 19 [1] Inventory Data - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 210.5 tons, a 1.8% decrease compared to the previous period [1][2] Strategy - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 this week [2]