Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Pulp has intense competition between the "strong supply" and "weak demand" narratives recently, and is highly volatile due to market macro funds. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices of SP2601, SP2609, and SP2605 on December 31, 2025, were 5460 yuan/ton, 5570 yuan/ton, and 5532 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.66%, 0.61%, and 0.65%, and weekly decreases of 1.66%, 1.59%, and 1.57% [6] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Golden were 5600 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively on December 31, 2025, with the Golden having a daily and weekly increase of 0.64% [6] - Foreign offers of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700 dollars/ton, 560 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.94%, 3.70%, and 0.00% [6] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721 yuan/ton, 4587 yuan/ton, and 5073 yuan/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.91%, 3.66%, and 0.00% [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - In November 2025, imports of coniferous pulp were 72.5 tons, a 4.92% increase from October; imports of broadleaf pulp were 176.5 tons, a 33.92% increase from October [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase [6] - National production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [6] - As of December 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 10.1 tons [6] - Production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, also showed certain fluctuations [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026, with a 20 - dollar increase in Asia and a 120 - dollar increase in Europe and North America for Golden broadleaf pulp [6] - The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while tissue paper and white cardboard have a slight increase [6] - As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 190.6 tons, showing a de - stocking trend for five consecutive weeks [6]

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纸浆期货 05 合约前结算价为 5506 元/吨，收盘价为 5506 元/吨，整体下跌 0.00%。山东木浆市场针叶浆意向成交价格区间为 4800-6300 元/吨，价格较上一 工作日收盘价格上涨 100 元/吨，其中山东银星报价为 5530-5550 元/吨。 021-60635727 fen ...

| 需求端：近期木浆用纸集中发布涨价函，目前仅有白卡纸落实情况较好，双胶纸再次集中发布涨价函，关注落实情况。 | | --- | | 库存端：截至2025年11月27日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量:217.2万吨，较上期去库0.1万吨，环比下降0.05%，库 | | 存量在本周期整体变动不大，趋势呈现小幅去库的走势。 | | 策略:加拿大浆厂出现减产情况，纸浆供给端出现利多因素，同时暂无新仓单注册,近月合约交割资源偏紧，纸浆期货 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5458 | 2.44% | 4. 80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5450 | 0.00% | 0. 93% | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pulp fundamentals show no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of delivery products, with limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5408, down 1.21% day - on - day and 1.39% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4872, down 0.53% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5410, down 1.13% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: On November 13, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 22.9 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [6]. - **Shipments to China**: In September 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [6]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 211.0 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period, changing from narrow - range de - stocking to high - level stocking [6][11]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On November 13, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 22.2 tons [6]. Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In November 2025, the production of double - coated paper was 20.90 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 28.48 tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 tons [6]. Valuation - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 528, with a quantile level of 0.957; Silver Star was 678, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 18, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 7, 2025, SP2601 was 5394 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 3.49%; SP2511 was 4872 with a daily decrease of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2605 was 5398 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.62% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% from August; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% from August. The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of offset paper on November 6, 2025, was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons. White cardboard showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, while cultural paper had frequent price - increase letters, but whether they can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand was still weak [5][10]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 7, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 228 with a quantile level of 0.905; Silver Star was 628 with a quantile level of 0.872 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On November 7, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained. [6][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On November 3, 2025, among the futures prices, SP2601 was 5306 with a daily increase of 1.80% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2511 was 4890 with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 0.78%; SP2605 was 5346 with a daily increase of 1.63% and a weekly increase of 0.91%. [6] - Among the spot prices, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, Russian softwood pulp was 5100, and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, all with no daily or weekly changes. [6] - In the foreign market quotes (in dollars), the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month. [6] - In terms of import costs, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month. [6] Fundamental Data - In terms of imports, in September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.10 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp was 135.60 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month. [6] - Regarding domestic production, on October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.7 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 million tons. [6] - For inventory, on October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 million tons. [6] - In terms of demand, on October 30, 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 20.60 million tons, coated paper was 8.60 million tons, tissue paper was 28.39 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons. [6] Valuation Data - On November 3, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 210 with a quantile level of 0.9, and the basis of Silver Star was 610 with a quantile level of 0.866. [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557. [6] Supply - demand - inventory Situation - Supply: Chilean Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star price in October was 680 dollars per ton, down 20 dollars per ton; hardwood pulp Star was 540 dollars per ton, unchanged; and chemimechanical pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, unchanged. [6][11] - Demand: White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but it remains to be seen whether the price increases can be implemented. Overall demand is still weak. [11] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a narrow - range inventory accumulation compared with the previous period. [11]

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment strategy is to maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp [11] Group 2: Price Data Futures Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5212, with a daily decrease of 0.23% and a weekly decrease of 0.53%; SP2511 was 4838, with a daily decrease of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.49%; SP2605 was 5260, with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [6] Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6] Outer - Disk Quotes - In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] Import Costs - In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Group 3: Fundamental Data Supply - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] Production - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.7 - 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp between 20.9 - 23.6 tons [6] Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [6][11] - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory fluctuated between 22.4 - 24.7 tons [6] Demand - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated, with white cardboard showing an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper having frequent price increase letters but uncertain implementation, and overall demand remaining weak [6][11] Group 4: Valuation Data Basis - On October 31, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; Silver Star was 662, with a quantile level of 0.888 [6] Import Profit - On October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]