| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/7 | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月6日 | 日环比 | 日本版 | | | 2025年8月6日 | HMM | 目WN | | | SP2601 | 5428 | 0. 44% | -1. 34% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5850 | 0. 00% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 | SP2605 | 5404 | -0. 30% | -1.22% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | 0. 00% | -4. 43% | | | SP2509 | 5170 | 0. 19% | -2.93% | | 阔叶 ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/4 | | | 农产品研究中心 | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 日环比 | | 2025年8月1日 | | 周环比 | | | 2025年8月1日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | -2. 80% | SP2601 | 5416 | -0. 11% | | | 针叶浆银星 | 5850 | 0. 00% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 | SP2605 | 5364 | -0. 48% | 0. 22% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5300 | 0. 00% | -3. 64% | | SP2509 | | 5186 | ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/1 | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025年7月31日 | | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年7月31日 | OFF 日本に | 10 min | | -2. 24% | SP2601 | 5422 | -1. 45% | | | 针叶浆银星 | 5850 | -1. 18% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 | SP2605 | 5338 | 0. 86% | 2. 10% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5300 | -2. 21% | -2. 21% | | SP25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a slight inventory reduction trend. Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and with expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily decrease of 1.51% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2605 was 5376 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a weekly increase of 1.19%; SP2509 was 5360 with a daily decrease of 2.90% and a weekly increase of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 (unchanged daily and weekly), Russian coniferous pulp was 5450 with a daily decrease of 0.91% and a weekly increase of 2.83%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 (unchanged daily and a weekly increase of 1.22%) [1] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The foreign market quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month to 500 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month to 5884 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month to 4101 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 5073 dollars [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons (a 6.09% decrease from May), and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 143.5 tons (a 10.98% increase from May). The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in July [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, with a 1.7% decrease. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend [2] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, with weak overall support for pulp [1] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 28, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 90 with a quantile level of 0.839, and the Silver Star basis was 560 with a quantile level of 0.869 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] 3.4 Strategy - Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment. With expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5572, up 0.47% day - on - day and 2.39% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5450, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 0.59% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5520, up 1.17% day - on - day and 4.31% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5500, up 1.48% day - on - day and 3.77% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month. The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: The domestic output of broadleaf pulp on July 24, 2025, was 21 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 21.5 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% decline [1] - **Finished Paper Output**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, with double - offset paper at 19.60 tons, copper - plate paper at 7.90 tons, tissue paper at 27.90 tons, and white cardboard at 31.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was - 20, with a quantile level of 0.646; the basis of Silver Star was 400, with a quantile level of 0.793 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] Supply - demand - inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The Arauco company in Chile announced the new outer - disk quotes for July wood pulp. The supply side showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price, with the W20's shipment volume to China in May up 3.3% month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a slight de - stocking trend [1] Strategy - It is recommended to observe pulp futures cautiously due to their high sensitivity to the macro - environment and the expected volatile commodity sentiment this week [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, with the W20's May shipment volume to China up 3.3% month-on-month and Chile's Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers indicating certain trends [1]. - The demand side has a slight increase in the output of major finished paper products this week, but the low - price of finished paper provides weak support for pulp [1]. - The inventory shows a slight de - stocking trend as of July 24, 2025, with the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China at 214.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 1.7% month - on - month decline [2]. - It is expected that the futures price will have limited upward movement due to the lack of follow - up in spot prices and will likely move in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5546, up 0.51% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.07% day - on - day and 1.32% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5456, up 0.78% day - on - day and 3.65% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, down 0.50% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5420, down 1.09% day - on - day and up 2.26% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 2.47% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, and broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons. The W20's May shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 218.1 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.60 tons [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper products increased slightly, including double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was - 36 with a quantile level of 0.591; the Silver Star basis was 464 with a quantile level of 0.841 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 24, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to rise under the influence of macro - positive factors and low valuation [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5502, up 0.40% day - on - day and 1.63% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5440, down 0.40% day - on - day and 1.80% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5368, up 0.64% day - on - day and 2.01% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4100, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.23% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star's outer - disk quote was 740 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's import cost was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month compared to May. The shipment volume of pulp to China in May was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month compared to April. Domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp also had certain changes [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 218.1 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% increase, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [3] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was - 68, with a quantile level of 0.47; the Silver Star basis was 552, with a quantile level of 0.867 [3] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 50, with a quantile level of 0.685; the quantile level of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 0.627 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp futures rose slightly against the backdrop of macro - positive factors, but the increase in spot prices was limited. In the short term, pulp is expected to trade in a range [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, down 0.22% week - on - week and up 1.58% compared to the previous period; SP2605 was 5342, up 0.19% week - on - week and down 0.49% compared to the previous period; SP2509 was 5242, down 0.38% week - on - week and up 2.66% compared to the previous period [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.34% compared to the previous period; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged week - on - week and up 3.52% compared to the previous period; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.75% compared to the previous period [1] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: From May 29 to July 10, 2025, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp fluctuated between 19.9 and 20.9 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp fluctuated between 19.7 and 20.3 tons [1] - **Pulp Shipment to China**: In May 2025, the pulp shipment to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of July 10, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.9 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper products increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 16, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 58, with a quantile level of 0.813; the Silver Star basis was 678, with a quantile level of 0.905 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 51, with a quantile level of 0.593 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5264 with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% and a day - on - week decrease of 0.04%; SP2507 was 5060 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 3.62%; SP2509 was 5066 with a day - on - day decrease of 0.08% and a week - on - week decrease of 3.58% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5950 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%; Russian Needle was 5120 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050 with no day - on - day change and a week - on - week decrease of 1.22% [1]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - **Outer - Disk Quotes (USD)**: In June 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; Chilean Star was 560 with no change; Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Imports**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 20.3 tons [1]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On June 26, 2025, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1]. 3.5 Demand - Side Data - **Finished - Paper Production**: In the week of June 27, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons; copperplate paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 28.00 tons; white cardboard was 30.30 tons. The production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. 3.6 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 54 with a quantile level of 0.809; the Silver Star basis was 884 with a quantile level of 0.975 [1]. - **Import Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 66 with a quantile level of 0.739; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537 with a quantile level of 0.189 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a narrow inventory accumulation trend. After the suspension of needle pulp warehousing, it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 24, 2025, SP2601 futures price was 5350, down 2.27% day - on - day and up 2.33% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5130, down 2.25% day - on - day and 1.72% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5136, down 2.69% day - on - day and 1.50% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6000, down 0.83% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 2.83% day - on - day and 1.90% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, down 1.22% day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged. Import costs were also unchanged [1] Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, down 30.80% [1] - Domestic production: broadleaf pulp production on June 19, 2025 was 20.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 19.9 tons [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 220.8 tons, up 2.3 tons from the previous period, a 1.1% increase [1] - Delivery warehouse inventory on June 19, 2025 was 23.53 tons [1] Demand - Output of finished paper decreased this week. Double - offset paper output was 19.50 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; toilet paper was 27.40 tons; white cardboard was 29.50 tons [1] Valuation Data - On June 24, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 14, with a quantile level of 0.739; the basis of Silver Star was 864, with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - Import profit: coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 46, with a quantile level of 0.53; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537, with a quantile level of 0.188 [1] Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Chilean Arauco announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (limited quantity); natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged [1] - Demand side: The output of major finished paper decreased this week, and the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]