ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 LL - 500 - 12 - 12 / E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要 市 市 官 方 网 站 lle 打 线 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/11/19 总结 2数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5408 | -1.21% | -1.39% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5550 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2512 | 4872 | -0.53% | 0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5400 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5410 | - ...

2数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 == [本张音中的赠慧助源于公开可获得做资料，国贸湖货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的推确性及完整性枚任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资套议。也未针对个别投资者提熟的投资目标， 務状况或需要、投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向陈定客户推进。未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 2025/11/18 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 总结 纸浆价格数据 y 湖 | | | 2025年11月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5474 | -0.11% | 0.11% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5550 | 0. 00% | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 7, 2025, SP2601 was 5394 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 3.49%; SP2511 was 4872 with a daily decrease of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2605 was 5398 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.62% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% from August; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% from August. The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of offset paper on November 6, 2025, was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons. White cardboard showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, while cultural paper had frequent price - increase letters, but whether they can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand was still weak [5][10]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 7, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 228 with a quantile level of 0.905; Silver Star was 628 with a quantile level of 0.872 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On November 7, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained. [6][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On November 3, 2025, among the futures prices, SP2601 was 5306 with a daily increase of 1.80% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2511 was 4890 with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 0.78%; SP2605 was 5346 with a daily increase of 1.63% and a weekly increase of 0.91%. [6] - Among the spot prices, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, Russian softwood pulp was 5100, and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, all with no daily or weekly changes. [6] - In the foreign market quotes (in dollars), the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month. [6] - In terms of import costs, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month. [6] Fundamental Data - In terms of imports, in September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.10 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp was 135.60 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month. [6] - Regarding domestic production, on October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.7 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 million tons. [6] - For inventory, on October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 million tons. [6] - In terms of demand, on October 30, 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 20.60 million tons, coated paper was 8.60 million tons, tissue paper was 28.39 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons. [6] Valuation Data - On November 3, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 210 with a quantile level of 0.9, and the basis of Silver Star was 610 with a quantile level of 0.866. [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557. [6] Supply - demand - inventory Situation - Supply: Chilean Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star price in October was 680 dollars per ton, down 20 dollars per ton; hardwood pulp Star was 540 dollars per ton, unchanged; and chemimechanical pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, unchanged. [6][11] - Demand: White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but it remains to be seen whether the price increases can be implemented. Overall demand is still weak. [11] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a narrow - range inventory accumulation compared with the previous period. [11]

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment strategy is to maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp [11] Group 2: Price Data Futures Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5212, with a daily decrease of 0.23% and a weekly decrease of 0.53%; SP2511 was 4838, with a daily decrease of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.49%; SP2605 was 5260, with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [6] Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6] Outer - Disk Quotes - In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] Import Costs - In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Group 3: Fundamental Data Supply - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] Production - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.7 - 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp between 20.9 - 23.6 tons [6] Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [6][11] - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory fluctuated between 22.4 - 24.7 tons [6] Demand - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated, with white cardboard showing an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper having frequent price increase letters but uncertain implementation, and overall demand remaining weak [6][11] Group 4: Valuation Data Basis - On October 31, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; Silver Star was 662, with a quantile level of 0.888 [6] Import Profit - On October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current paper product demand remains stable, paper product prices show no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 207.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, showing a narrow de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needles. The futures price may be priced according to Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5156, up 0.66% day - on - day and down 0.04% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4858, up 0.41% day - on - day and up 1.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5212, up 0.54% day - on - day and down 0.31% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 20, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian Needles was 5100, up 2.00% day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; the quote of Japanese pulp was 530 US dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 million tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 million tons [6] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.30 million tons, coated paper was 7.90 million tons, tissue paper was 28.08 million tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 million tons [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 20, 2025, the Russian Needles basis was 242, with a quantile level of 0.91; the Silver Star basis was 642, with a quantile level of 0.877 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 20, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.555 [6] Supply - side Information - Chile's Arauco Company's September softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 700 US dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was quoted at 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged. Softwood pulp foreign quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are not significantly reduced, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.30% day-on-day and 1.46% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5008, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.18% week-on-week; SP2505 was 5288, down 0.53% day-on-day and 1.31% week-on-week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day-on-day and down 0.95% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.96% week-on-week [5]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month-on-month; Japanese X was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month-on-month [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month-on-month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month-on-month; broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month-on-month. The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, up 23.00% year-on-year [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production volume of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, household paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations in different periods [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 23, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 192, and the quantile level was 0.899; the Silver Star basis was 642, and the quantile level was 0.881 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 23, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71, and the quantile level was 0.497; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124, and the quantile level was 0.523 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Supply**: The foreign quotes of coniferous pulp decreased, and the quotes of broadleaf pulp increased. Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp and an increase in broadleaf pulp [5]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, the paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" to the pulp demand side have not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5]. - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are not significantly reduced, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a de - stocking trend in inventory. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 1, 2025, SP2601 was 5416 with a daily decrease of 2.80% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SP2605 was 5364 with a daily decrease of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 0.22%; SP2509 was 5186 with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 6.05% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 1, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged daily and down 1.18% weekly; Russian coniferous pulp was 5300, unchanged daily and down 3.64% weekly; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, unchanged daily and down 0.72% weekly [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: In terms of outer - disk quotes (in dollars), Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month. In terms of import costs, Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations. Chilean Arauco announced new July wood pulp outer - disk quotes, with an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper decreased slightly, and the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 1, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 114 with a quantile level of 0.858; the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545 [1]. Strategy This week, pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2].