Economic Overview - In early 2025, China's economy showed stability, with January's financial data indicating marginal improvements in total financial volume and structure[5] - The average new home price in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.1% month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 5.7% to 5.4%[8] - The U.S. economy is facing stagnation risks due to high inflation expectations and a high-interest rate environment, leading to renewed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[5] U.S. Economic Indicators - In January 2025, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the three-month moving average rising to 237,000, the highest since April 2023[13] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3% in January, the highest since June 2024, with core CPI at 3.3%[16] - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% in January, the largest decline since March 2023, influenced by adverse weather and declining consumer confidence[20] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. continues to apply tariff pressures on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on Chinese products, leading to retaliatory measures from China[5] - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas began on January 19, 2025, with ongoing negotiations for a second phase[5] - Trump's new policies are reshaping U.S. geopolitical strategies, including significant tariff implementations and immigration reforms, which may impact economic growth[21] Market Trends and Asset Allocation - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience low volatility in 2025, with a focus on defensive asset allocation strategies due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties[39] - Recommendations for asset allocation in 2025 include increasing government bonds to hedge against weakening economic growth, maintaining gold as a hedge against currency depreciation, and selectively increasing blue-chip stocks in the second half of the year[43] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.3% and 1.9% in 2025, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are expected to remain between 4% and 5%[33][35]

本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 更多中资企业赴美上市，募资额较2023年翻倍。 据IPO早知道消息，12月18日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布了中国内地及香港新股市场2024年回 顾与2025年前景展望。 以新股融资总额计算，在为一家韩国汽车制造商上市成为今年全球第三大新股及为大量公司上市后， 印度国家证券交易所将崛起成为2024年全球最大的上市地。纳斯达克和纽交所分别取得第二和第三 位。前者为一家冷藏库存公司上市成为今年全球最大新股，后者有更多大型新股上市。中国内地家电 集团、饮料公司、综合物流服务公司和乘用车高级辅助驾驶和高阶自动驾驶解决方案提供商的上市项 目使香港交易所稳守第四位。因有一家地铁营运商上市，东京证券交易所跃升至第五位。上交所和深 交所则分别位居第六位和第八位。 来源：德勤 香港新股融资额大增 A股IPO保持质量为先 香港新股市场在2024年9月起开始回升。今年香港的极大规模新股数量、融资金额与主板新股总融 资额均明显较去年更加理想。截至2024年12月31日，预计香港将会录得69只新股融资大约876亿 港元。与2023年70只新股融资463亿港元比较 ...