他指出，中国纯电动汽车的出口增长速度远远超过了泰国，而泰国仍然在 很大程度上依赖内燃机汽车的出口。 （原标题：泰国汽车出口量下降了12%） 据曼谷邮报12月25日报道,根据泰国工业联合会(FTI)的数据，从1月到11 月，泰国的汽车出口量同比下降了12%，仅为78,692辆。由于竞争日益激烈， 内燃机汽车在海外市场的份额正在不断减少。 FTI联合会副主席兼汽车产业俱乐部发言人苏拉蓬表示，汽车销量的下降 主要是由于全球各大汽车制造商纷纷停止生产内燃机车型，转而生产纯电动汽 车；此外，一些国家对燃油汽车征收了新的碳排放税，而泰国的贸易伙伴们也 遭遇了经济增速放缓的局面，这些因素共同导致了汽车销量的下降。 在这段时间内，对亚洲的出口下降了5.64%，对澳大利亚的出口减少了 16%，而对欧盟的出口则下降了33%。中东地区是一个亮点，其增长率仅为 0.45%。 苏拉蓬表示，尽管经济形势有所下滑，但泰国在亚洲和大洋洲地区仍然属 于主要的出口国。 他将这一增长归因于纯电动汽车价格变得更加亲民、泰国银行降低利率后 贷款成本下降，以及泰国国际汽车博览会期间开展的各类促销活动。 由于政府推出的激励措施使得纯电动汽车的产量有所增加 ...

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a slow downward trend, with overall inflation remaining stable and limited transmission effects from tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data from Harvard's Pricing Lab indicates that the price increase of Chinese goods imported to the US has been limited, even after tariff hikes [1] - The US has recently reduced tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%, further diminishing the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - There is a potential concern regarding rising electricity prices due to significant investments in the AI industry, which may affect the US CPI [1] Labor Market Insights - The US is currently in a government shutdown, leading to a lack of official economic data, with reliance on private statistics like the ADP report [2] - The latest ADP data shows a rebound in job creation to over 40,000 in October, but this is still below the previous average of over 100,000, indicating a weak labor market [2] - The stable inflation and weakening labor market create conditions for potential monetary policy easing, with expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] China-US Trade Relations - Despite the recent reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods, China still faces significant tariff pressures, with its goods having the highest tariff rates among countries exporting to the US as of July [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing a diverging trend compared to the US, with stable high growth in exports, social financing, and industrial value added, while retail sales and fixed asset investment face uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to decline further, potentially falling between 4.4% and 4.6% [5] - The impact of previous economic stimulus measures is leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power, with some sectors experiencing negative sales growth [5] Inflation and Price Trends - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "bottoming out and recovery" in inflation, influenced by base effects, with gold's rising weight in the CPI contributing to this trend [6] - Gold's weight in the CPI has increased to 4%, indicating its significant impact on overall inflation metrics [6] - Core CPI is projected to remain stable between 0.5% and 1.6% [6] Social Financing Trends - Social financing growth is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the year due to a lack of large-scale debt issuance compared to the previous year [7] - The recent discussions from the Fourth Plenary Session indicate a cautious approach to economic policy, with no expectation of large-scale stimulus measures [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Developments - There has been a noticeable decrease in fiscal bond issuance in October, with expectations for a potential rebound in November or December [8] - The government has implemented incremental policies to address the economic downturn, including the issuance of local government bonds [8] - Policy-oriented financial tools have been fully utilized to counter economic pressures, with a focus on supporting key sectors [9] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a narrow fluctuation pattern, with potential for policy-driven movements in early next year [10] - The ten-year government bond is highlighted as a stable investment option, suitable for both long-term allocation and short-term trading strategies [10]

Economic Growth Outlook - The Bank of Thailand expects the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment scheme to boost GDP growth in Q4 of this year, projecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% after a contraction in the previous quarter [1] - The central bank anticipates a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3, primarily supported by government stimulus measures aimed at encouraging shared healthcare costs and boosting domestic tourism [1] Sector Performance - The economic recovery is expected to be bolstered by an expansion in exports, driven by companies ramping up production and previously closed factories resuming operations [1] - Temporary production halts in various sectors, including oil, automotive, and alcoholic beverages, contributed to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q3 [1] Currency and Tourism - The Bank of Thailand has revised down its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, due to domestic and international economic challenges [2] - Despite a strong Thai baht, which appreciated by 7.8% earlier this year, its recent depreciation of 4.4% against the US dollar has negatively impacted Thailand's export and tourism competitiveness [2] - The central bank projects an increase in foreign tourist arrivals in Q4, estimating a total of 33 million foreign visitors for the year, with expectations to rise to 35.5 million by 2026 [2] Chinese Tourist Recovery - Following a significant decline of 55% in April, the number of Chinese tourists is showing signs of recovery, with a projected reduction in decline to 28.9% this month [3] - The central bank forecasts that the number of Chinese tourists will reach 4.4 million by 2025 and increase to 6.6 million by 2026 [3]

【导读】日经 225 指数大涨，再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的情况及最新资讯。 日经 225 指数创历史新高 消息面上，日本执政党自民党与日本维新会已就组建联合政府基本达成一致。新当选的自民 党领袖高市早苗可能成为日本首位女首相，为出台经济刺激措施铺平道路。 澳大利亚国民银行的 Taylor Nugent 评论称，在贸易关系和美国地区性银行出现更多积极进 展之际，风险偏好有所改善。日本方面，执政的自民党与日本维新会之间的联合执政谈判取 得了进展。 Nugent 补充说，当地一家媒体报道称，双方可能在周二议会投票前于今日签署 协议。 此外，首尔综合指数高开低走，现跌 0.52% 。 | 首尔综合指数 | | | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.KOSPI | | | 3729.47 -19.42 -0.52% | | | | 10-20 08:24:10 | | 最高 3777.57 | 今开 3775.40 | | 最低 3728.38 | 昨收 3748.89 | | 日K 園K 月K 室K 更多, ◎ | 分时 | | 均价:3753.13 最新:3729.47 -19.4 ...

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy showed robust growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong merchandise exports and improved local demand [1] - Future export growth may face pressure due to tariff factors, but economic stimulus measures from mainland China are expected to enhance business confidence [1] Financial Sector - The pre-tax operating profit of Hong Kong's retail banks increased by 13.4% year-on-year, primarily due to higher revenues from foreign exchange and derivatives, as well as increased fees and commissions [1] - The banking sector maintained high liquidity and ample capital [1] Stock Market and Capital Activity - The Hang Seng Index rose by 9.3% from late February to the end of August, recovering after a sharp decline in early April [2] - Initial public offering (IPO) financing in Hong Kong reached HKD 107.1 billion in the first half of the year, eight times that of the same period last year [2] Currency and Debt Securities - The Hong Kong dollar experienced a strong performance following active capital market activities, with bank credit returning to positive growth and total deposits continuing to rise [2] - The total issuance of Hong Kong dollar debt securities increased by 11.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 28,287 billion in the first half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Kato Sanae, a prominent candidate for the leadership of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), plans to implement tax incentives and cash subsidies for families if elected [1][2] - Kato Sanae aims to raise the tax-exempt income threshold and eliminate gasoline taxes as part of her economic stimulus measures [1] - Kato Sanae's leadership could mark a significant shift in Japan's political landscape, potentially making her the first female Prime Minister of Japan [1] Group 2 - Kato Sanae's political stance is characterized by a strong conservative approach, advocating for aggressive economic stimulus to promote growth [1] - In a recent poll conducted from September 12 to 15, Kato Sanae received 19.7% support among LDP supporters, ranking second behind her competitor, Koizumi Shinjiro, who garnered 31.8% [1] - Kato Sanae has not addressed monetary policy in her recent statements, despite her previous opposition to interest rate hikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Ministry of Finance is preparing to implement stimulus measures to counteract the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs while accelerating regulatory reforms to enhance national competitiveness [1] Group 1: Economic Stimulus Measures - The Ministry plans to implement stimulus measures to compensate for the potential negative effects of a slowdown in net export income on economic growth [1] - If net export income declines and affects economic growth, the government is ready to consider measures to stimulate domestic consumption and investment [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Tax Policies - Proposed measures may include accelerating public investment budget payments for various infrastructure projects to stimulate economic activity and create domestic job opportunities [1] - Tax policies may be introduced to encourage consumption, such as tax reductions for domestic tourism or shopping, to offset the slowdown in foreign demand [1] Group 3: Support for Key Economic Sectors - There will be support for the tourism and service sectors, which are critical engines of the Thai economy [1]

Group 1 - The recently announced US-EU trade agreement has faced strong criticism from Germany and France, with warnings that it could harm the EU economy and lead to increased inflation [1][2] - The agreement, described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the "largest trade agreement in history," covers nearly 44% of global GDP and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war [2] - The agreement secures a lower tariff rate for the EU compared to the threatened 30% tariffs by the US, but the new 15% tariff is still three times higher than the average tariffs prior to Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement in April [3] Group 2 - European stock markets reacted negatively to the agreement, with the German DAX index falling by 1% and the French CAC40 index down by 0.4%, as initial optimism was overshadowed by concerns over the EU's economic outlook [3] - The automotive sector, significantly impacted by the tariffs, saw a decline of 1.8% in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after an initial rise [3] - The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed the agreement but noted that the 15% tariff still represents a significant increase in trade costs, suggesting that more industries should be included in the zero-tariff list [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister expressed an open attitude towards implementing further stimulus measures to mitigate the economic impact of increased U.S. tariffs, while remaining cautious about reducing the consumption tax rate [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The government is prepared to take additional measures to alleviate the economic pain caused by U.S. tariff increases [1] - Any measures taken must specifically target the households most affected, rather than being broadly applied [1] Group 2: Consumption Tax - There are calls from opposition parties and some ruling party members for the government to lower the consumption tax to help families cope with rising living costs [1] - The current consumption tax rate in Japan is 10%, with a reduced rate of 8% for food [1]

Group 1 - The Thai government plans to introduce economic stimulus measures in the second half of the year to support growth [1]