Group 1 - The trade-weighted average tariff rate imposed by the United States on all products has risen to 20.11%, significantly higher than the 2.44% at the beginning of the year [1] - The simple average tariff rate on all goods has increased from 2.08% at the start of the year to 17.39% as of the 7th [1] - The global trade volume affected by these tariffs has surged from $288.46 billion at the beginning of the year to $2.747 trillion currently [1] Group 2 - The average effective tariff rate in the United States has reached 18.6%, marking the highest level since 1933 [1] - A report from Yale University's budget laboratory indicates that the adjustments in U.S. tariff policy have led to this increase [1] - New tariff rates applicable to 69 trading partners were announced by the U.S. government on July 31, with implementation starting on August 7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings anticipates that European natural gas prices will continue to experience high volatility, particularly in the context of ongoing adjustments to U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - European natural gas prices are expected to remain highly volatile [1] - The volatility is influenced by the adjustments in U.S. tariff policies [1]

Export Performance - In April, exports showed resilience with a growth rate of 8.1%, surpassing the first quarter's growth of 6.4% and significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.8%[1] - Month-on-month, April exports increased by 0.6%, indicating sustained export momentum despite a surge in March[1] Regional Analysis - Exports to ASEAN, Canada, and Latin America saw significant increases, with exports to ASEAN nearly doubling to 20.8% and to Vietnam reaching 22.5%[2] - Conversely, exports to the United States declined by 21.0%, while exports to Canada and the EU increased by 15.0% and 8.3%, respectively[2] Product Categories - Labor-intensive and consumer electronics exports weakened, with declines in categories such as plastic products (-1.2%), bags (-9.1%), and clothing (-1.2%) indicating a significant impact from tariffs[3] - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained resilience, with integrated circuit exports accelerating by 1.5%[3] Import Trends - Imports showed a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of only 0.2%, an improvement of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Notably, copper imports surged by 48.9%, driven by increased prices due to U.S. tariffs on copper ore[4] Trade Policy Outlook - Short-term exports to the U.S. are expected to recover, but long-term dynamics will depend on ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and tariff policy adjustments[5] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days, creating uncertainty for future export demand[5]