文字早评 2026/03/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美股恐慌指数 VIX 最新上涨 24%，报 26.6 点； 2、欧洲天然气价格涨幅进一步扩大至 40%，报 62.5 欧元/兆瓦时，2 日涨超 100%； 3、美国国务院连发 6 条撤离令，要求在约旦、巴林、伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔、阿联酋的非必要政府 人员撤离； 4、全球 AI 应用月活榜前五分别为 ChatGPT、豆包、千问、夸克、DeepSeek，千问增速高达 552%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.80%/2.68%/5.23%/5.05%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.46%/6.10%/8.67%/7.14%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.98%/4.96%/11.71%/9.46%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-2.92%/-0.53%/0.67%/2.82%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，建议 关注国内两会政策信号以及战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 112.770 ...

截至今日晚间18:48，欧洲天然气价格涨幅进一步扩大至40%，报62.5欧元/兆瓦时，2日涨超100%。创下2023年1月以来的最高水平。 嫣然医院设立电商公司 来源：财联社 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 多地景区官宣：3月免门票 ...

准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 | ICE Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures - 2026年4月 | | | | | | | | | | 4 | ★ | 添加至投资组合 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (TFMBMc1) 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 트 洲际交易所 ▼ 货币 EUR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 62.355 +17.849 (+40.10%) - | | | | | | | | | | 当日幅度 46.050 | | | 62.4 | | 1 延迟数据 · 18:26:34 | | | | | | | | | | 52 周范围 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 26.530 | | | 62.4 | | G 股价接近52周高点 ① | | | 更多信息 | | | | | | | | | ...

亚洲货币和大宗商品两大市场齐飞！ 美国总统特朗普表示，并不担心近期美元走贬，美元因此崩跌。相对应地，新兴亚洲货币指数上涨至自去年9 月以来的最高水平，MSCI新兴货币指数创历史新高。 与此同时，包括贵金属在内的大宗商品集体走强。黄金突破5200美元/盎司，布油突破66美元/桶，有色金属亦 是多数走强。A股有色板块全线走强，有色ETF一度涨超5%。煤炭ETF亦因此大涨近2.7%。那么，后续将如 何演绎？ 特朗普引爆 当地时间周二（1月27日），特朗普表示，并不担心近期美元走贬。特朗普表示，美元的价值——看看我们现 在的生意就知道了。美元表现非常棒。此话一出，立马引爆美元卖盘。 追踪美元对六种主要货币走势的美元指数，周三亚洲盘最低跌到95.566，触及2022年2月以来最低水平。随着 美元贬值贸易势头增强，新兴亚洲货币指数上涨至自去年9月以来的最高水平，MSCI新兴货币指数创历史新 高。与此同时，大宗商品价格飞涨。国际金价突破5200美元/盎司。国际油价突破66美元/桶。 策略师普遍认为，特朗普表态引发美元卖压之后，亚洲货币有望再度受益，原因在于特朗普高度关注亚洲出 口，低流动性更能放大影响力。Bank of N ...

Group 1: Strategy - The formation of a "slow bull market" in A-shares is influenced by multiple factors, including fundamental, institutional, and capital market changes, with a shift in the macro paradigm and ongoing capital market reforms creating a conducive environment for this slow bull market [4] - The article emphasizes that the current conditions are more favorable for a "slow bull market" than in the past, which could significantly support the construction of a financial strong nation, boost consumption, and upgrade industries [4] - The realization of this slow bull market relies on China's commitment to economic transformation and deepening capital market reforms to enhance the market's medium to long-term attractiveness [4] Group 2: Strategy - The article discusses the three main drivers for a currency to achieve international reserve status: market forces, policy support, and historical inertia, with market forces being the most fundamental [7] - It identifies two main obstacles to the internationalization and reserve status of the RMB: the low proportion of trade settlement compared to trade volume and insufficient development and openness of the financial market [7] - The article proposes a "three-pronged" approach to enhance the RMB's internationalization and reserve status, focusing on cross-border trade settlement, financial market development, and regional initiatives [7] Group 3: Strategy - There are notable differences in AI investment between China and the US, despite similar overall investment scales, with variations in infrastructure, chip development, and model application [9] - The funding sources for AI investments differ significantly, with the US being predominantly driven by the private sector, while China sees a dual drive from both government and private sectors [9] - These funding sources influence investment characteristics, such as return expectations and investment timelines, leading to different focuses in investment areas [9] Group 4: Macroeconomy - The article highlights the recent volatility in US and Japanese bonds due to geopolitical risks and fiscal discipline issues, suggesting that this could lead to systemic risks in overseas markets [12] - It anticipates that debt monetization and Yield Curve Control (YCC) may become necessary to suppress long-term interest rates, potentially resulting in a trend of increased dollar liquidity and a continued weak dollar [12] - This environment is expected to favor commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as emerging markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, which remains underweighted by global funds [12] Group 5: Commodities - Extreme weather is identified as a key variable affecting commodity markets, leading to synchronized supply and demand adjustments across energy, metals, and agricultural sectors [16] - The article notes that different commodities respond to weather changes in distinct ways, with energy prices driven by temperature and metal prices influenced by precipitation [16] - Specific forecasts include a tightening of the US natural gas market and a downward trend in European gas prices due to low inventory levels, while aluminum costs may rise due to reduced hydropower generation from decreased rainfall [16] Group 6: Macroeconomy - The 2026 US midterm elections are highlighted as a critical juncture, with potential implications for government policy and market dynamics, particularly concerning high inflation and living costs [18] - The article suggests that the focus of the elections may shift from stimulating economic growth to alleviating cost-of-living pressures, impacting investment strategies [18] - Key insights for investors include limited expansion potential for index valuations, increased volatility, and heightened policy risks for monopolistic sectors, while cost-benefit industries may become more favorable for capital allocation [18]

本周二开始，美国大部分地区已被严寒笼罩。这场极端寒潮预计将推动居民和商业取暖需求大幅激增， 电力发电需求也将同步上升，天然气价格当天大幅飙升26%。 这场寒潮打破了今年原本偏暖的冬季格局。受哈得逊湾上空高空低压系统影响，北极冷空气持续向南扩 散，超2亿美国民众将遭遇冰点以下的严寒，明尼苏达州等地区的体感温度甚至会降至零下30华氏度 （近零下35摄氏度）。 目前北极冷空气已经席卷美国东半部，同时，一场强冬季风暴的风险持续攀升，预计从得克萨斯州一路 蔓延至中大西洋地区。美国国家气象局表示，一股 "极寒"的北极气团将导致东北部和中西部地区的气 温较常年偏低15华氏度-25华氏度（约合8摄氏度-13摄氏度），且截至1月末的天气展望仍为严寒。 美国国家气象局预报，本周五前，落基山脉南部、大平原地区和南部各州将遭遇强冬季风暴，出现强降 雪、冻雨天气，风暴后续将在周末向东部海岸移动。零度以下的严寒天气将深入得克萨斯州并席卷整个 南部地区，同时当地还面临冰雹和强降雪的风险。 2026.01.22 本文字数：1688，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 受极涡范围持续扩大影响，北极冷空气蔓延至北半球大部分地区，市场对 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The company maintains a tight outlook for the US natural gas market in 2026, expecting NYMEX gas prices to rise to a seasonal fluctuation range of $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) [1] - Despite a warm winter in Europe, low natural gas inventories will support global LNG market replenishment demand, with expectations for the Dutch TTF gas price to decrease to a range of $9-10 per MMBtu in 2026 [1][5] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts of summer hurricanes on oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico [1] Group 2: Climate Impact on Commodity Markets - The company identifies climate shocks as a significant risk embedded in global supply chains, with the La Niña phenomenon re-emerging and a 60% probability of El Niño occurring later in the year [3][4] - The interplay of climate uncertainty and human policy constraints, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and local production requirements in the US, is expected to create a new phase of "risk nesting" in the commodity market by 2026 [3] Group 3: Weather's Influence on Different Commodity Sectors - In the energy sector, temperature is the core driver, with US natural gas inventories lower than the five-year average, providing a favorable condition for price increases [5] - For non-ferrous metals, heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, affecting costs and supply [6][7] - In the agricultural sector, weather conditions directly impact crop yields, with Brazil's soybean production expected to remain strong despite La Niña, while palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to high inventory levels and Ramadan demand [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in crude oil, European natural gas, and liquefied natural gas prices is expected to negatively impact the profits of European integrated oil companies [1] Industry Summary - Analysts predict that the combined net profit of the oil and gas sector in the fourth quarter will decrease by 4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - Despite rising natural gas prices in the U.S. providing some buffer, oil and gas trading performance is expected to normalize, which will further drag down profitability [1] - Refining margins are expected to remain strong during this period, potentially providing some support to overall profits [1] Company Summary - Shell, headquartered in London, has warned of weak oil trading performance and declining profits for the last quarter of 2025 [1] - Following this warning, Shell's stock price fell by 2.35% to 2,593 pence [1]

Core Insights - European natural gas prices have seen a slight increase as traders weigh weather forecasts against demand concerns [1] - The benchmark futures price is fluctuating around €32 per megawatt-hour, following a nearly 2% decline over the previous two days [1] Weather and Demand Factors - Some meteorological models indicate that temperatures in major natural gas-consuming countries in Northwest Europe may be significantly higher than usual in early November, potentially reducing heating energy demand [1] - This could provide relief to the market, which has been under pressure due to winter reserve usage amid cold waves [1] Renewable Energy Concerns - There are ongoing concerns regarding low renewable energy generation, as shorter daylight hours are expected to increase electricity demand, potentially leading to higher gas consumption for power generation [1] - Consulting firms predict a relatively mild winter for Europe, but forecasters warn that calm and foggy weather could weaken wind energy production, increasing reliance on traditional power generation [1] Market Movements - As of 1:19 PM Amsterdam time, Dutch near-term futures rose by 0.6% to €31.91 per megawatt-hour, with prices having remained in a narrow range for several months [1]

Core Insights - European natural gas prices have returned to previous volatility ranges, with traders awaiting more information on heating season trends [1] - Stable fuel supply has temporarily offset risks from cold weather, with the Dutch TTF benchmark price down 0.6% to €32.17 per MWh [1] - Despite sufficient gas storage before winter, current inventory levels remain below historical averages, raising concerns about long-term demand spikes [1] Group 1 - The benchmark futures price has declined for three consecutive days, following a brief breakout earlier in the week [1] - Recent cold weather has increased heating demand in parts of Europe, with forecasts predicting below-average temperatures in the coming days [1] - Increased LNG shipments to Northwest Europe and rising Russian gas supplies to Asia may lead to more global gas supply available for European buyers [4] Group 2 - The recent market stabilization has attracted investor interest back to the European natural gas market [4] - The total open interest for benchmark gas contracts reached a historical high this week, indicating increased market liquidity [4]