智通财经APP获悉，欧洲天然气价格已重新回到此前数周来的波动区间内。目前，交易员们正等待有关 供暖季走势的更多信息。目前稳定的燃料供应暂时抵消了寒冷天气带来的风险。截至发稿，欧洲天然气 基准价格荷兰TTF当月期货下跌 0.6%，至每兆瓦时 32.17 欧元。 基准期货价格连续第三天小幅下跌，此前本周早些时候曾短暂突破近期的波动区间。近期的低温天气已 经导致该地区部分地区供暖需求增加，而且一些气象模型预测未来几天气温将低于平均水平。 尽管欧洲在冬季来临前已成功储备了充足的天然气，但这些库存量仍低于历史平均水平。因为在上一供 暖季结束时，其天然气库存已近乎耗尽。这使得交易商们对欧洲如何应对可能出现的长期需求激增感到 担忧，不过目前该地区仍吸引着燃料供应。 近期，液化天然气(LNG)运往欧洲西北部终端的量有所增加，俄罗斯天然气向亚洲供应有所增加，这可 能会使更多全球天然气供应给欧洲买家。 不过，近期市场暂时脱离的区间波动似乎让欧洲天然气市场重新吸引了投资者的关注。此前数周，市场 走势总体平稳，这使得获利机会寥寥无几。据洲际交易所数据，本周基准天然气合约的总持仓量达到了 历史新高，这表明市场流动性有所增加。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that European gas traders are proactively hedging against winter risks for the next storage season, despite an expected increase in gas supply next year [1][2] - Options contracts traded on Monday predict that European gas prices could reach €50 per megawatt-hour next summer, representing a 60% increase from the current level of around €32 [1] - The volatility of European gas prices has returned to pre-2022 energy crisis levels, providing a more attractive entry point for traders looking to profit from price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The European gas market faces uncertainties that could impact next year's storage plans, including the potential for severe winter weather and the effects of further sanctions on Russian energy [2] - Data indicates that 2,050 contracts of call options were traded on Monday with a strike price of €50 per megawatt-hour, covering the period from April to September 2026, with an option premium of €0.81 per megawatt-hour [2]

Group 1 - European natural gas prices are set to rise for the first time in three weeks, driven by waning optimism regarding U.S. President Trump's efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war [1] - The benchmark futures price has increased slightly, with an expected rise of approximately 8% for the week, following a drop to a one-year low due to market expectations of a potential peace agreement [1] - The Dutch TTF natural gas monthly futures rose by 1.1% to €33.55 per megawatt-hour [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Energy Aspects, led by Erisa Pasko, indicate that a satisfactory agreement for all parties is still a long way off [3] - The European natural gas market is preparing for upcoming maintenance work in Norway, a key gas supplier, which will lead to reduced supply [3] - Higher prices may be necessary to attract liquefied natural gas shipments and compete with Asian buyers for supply [3]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil exports, with prices closing higher on August 18. The price of light crude oil for September delivery rose by $0.62 to $63.42 per barrel, a 0.99% increase, while Brent crude for October delivery increased by $0.75 to $66.60 per barrel, a 1.14% rise [1] - Ole Hansen, the global commodity strategy head at Saxo Bank, expressed skepticism that the oil market has fully priced in the "peace dividend," which could lead to further declines in oil and European natural gas prices [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and European leaders is marked by significant differences in positions, with Trump stating that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea or join NATO, while Zelensky indicated readiness for a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Russian leaders [1] Group 2 - Peter Navarro, a senior advisor at the White House, called for India to stop purchasing Russian oil, highlighting India's role in converting sanctioned Russian oil into high-value export commodities, which provides Russia with necessary dollars [2] - The criticism from Navarro regarding India's oil purchases has led to increased market buying activity, reflecting ongoing concerns about energy trade being affected by trade and diplomatic tensions, even as prospects for peace in Ukraine appear brighter [3]

Core Insights - European natural gas prices fell by 2.4%, reaching a new low for the year [1] Industry Summary - The decline in European natural gas prices indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, potentially influenced by supply and demand factors [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas prices have fallen for the sixth consecutive trading day, approaching the lowest levels since May due to ample supply suppressing price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its previous view that with the increase in liquefied natural gas supply, European natural gas prices will decline in 2026 and 2027, averaging €30 per megawatt-hour and €20 per megawatt-hour respectively [1] Summary by Category - **Natural Gas Supply** - The increase in liquefied natural gas supply is expected to drive down prices in Europe [1] - **Price Forecast** - Average natural gas prices in Europe are projected to be €30 per megawatt-hour in 2026 and €20 per megawatt-hour in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have seen a slight increase due to Norway extending and expanding seasonal maintenance, which has led to a reduction in gas supply to the European continent and storage facilities [1] Supply Situation - The benchmark futures price rose by 1.2% after early morning fluctuations, indicating market concerns over supply prospects [1] - Despite relatively ample gas supply in Europe this summer, with storage levels currently around 65%, reserves are still close to seasonal lows not seen in three years [1]

Group 1 - European natural gas prices have risen for the third consecutive day, marking the longest streak since mid-June [1] - The increase in prices is attributed to a heatwave affecting the region, which has led to higher demand for natural gas [1] - On Wednesday, European natural gas benchmark futures prices rose by 2.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices closed down 12%, marking the largest decline in nearly two years [1] Group 1 - The significant drop in natural gas prices indicates a potential shift in market dynamics and supply-demand balance [1] - This decline could impact energy companies and their profitability, particularly those heavily reliant on natural gas [1] - The decrease in prices may also influence consumer energy costs and overall economic conditions in Europe [1]