Group 1: Export Performance - June export growth rate was 5.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus forecast by 2.7 percentage points[3] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly higher than last year's full-year growth of 5.8%[3] - Trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $585.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.52%, surpassing last year's growth of 20.7%[3] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, with U.S. exports accounting for 12% of total exports[4] - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained high growth at 16.9%, with Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines showing growth rates of 23.8%, 27.9%, and 10.2% respectively[4] - Exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany's export growth slowing to 3.5%[4] Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with declines narrowing to -7.1% for bags, -1.6% for textiles, and -4.0% for footwear[5] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 8.2% and 6.9% respectively, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing high growth rates of 24.2%, 23.1%, and 23.6%[5] - The contribution of mechanical products to export growth was 4.8 percentage points, while high-tech products contributed 1.6 percentage points[5] Group 4: Import Trends - Import growth returned to positive territory at 1.1%, a significant rebound of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of import growth, with rates of 6.4% and 10.0% respectively[6] - Energy product imports faced declines, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas showing decreases of -44.7%, -15.0%, and -5.9% respectively due to falling prices[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, supported by tariff exemptions and ongoing "export grabbing" strategies[7] - However, medium to long-term pressures may build due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential demand exhaustion[7] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery abroad[8]

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth remains resilient, supported by strong performance in emerging markets and stable trade relations with developed economies, despite challenges in labor-intensive product exports and fluctuating commodity prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.9% for the first half of the year [1]. - Key markets contributing to export resilience include Europe, ASEAN, and Africa, with exports to the EU growing by 7.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - Emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, saw double-digit growth in exports, with Vietnam and Thailand experiencing over 20% year-on-year increases [1][3]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - Imports in June 2025 recorded a slight year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while the cumulative import decline for the first half was 3.9% [1]. - The decline in imports is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic manufacturing sentiment, with major commodities like soybeans and iron ore seeing price drops [2]. Group 3: Trade Structure and Diversification - The share of emerging markets in China's exports is increasing, with the U.S. share dropping to around 12%, while ASEAN and Latin America account for 17.8% and 7.8% respectively [3][4]. - China's trade diversification is further supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP, enhancing trade relations with new partners [4]. Group 4: Export Product Composition - High-value products such as semiconductors, transportation equipment, and machinery are driving export growth, while labor-intensive products face pressure due to U.S. tariff policies [2][5]. - The export structure is shifting towards high-end manufacturing, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.2% year-on-year) and machinery [2][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable demand from emerging markets and strong bilateral trade relations with the EU is expected to bolster China's export resilience amid global trade uncertainties [5]. - The ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector towards high-end, intelligent, and green production is anticipated to enhance international competitiveness in exports [5].

Group 1 - China's exports in June recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, with a cumulative growth of 5.9% in the first half of the year, supported by "rush exports" and "rush transshipments" from foreign trade enterprises [1] - Imports in June showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while the cumulative import for the first half of the year decreased by 3.9%, primarily due to falling prices of bulk commodities and weak domestic manufacturing [1] - Key markets for China's exports include Europe, ASEAN, and Africa, with exports to the EU growing at a rate of 7.6% year-on-year in June [1][3] Group 2 - The export performance of sectors such as automobiles, semiconductor supply chains, transportation equipment, and machinery remains strong, while labor-intensive products face pressure [2] - Shipbuilding exports have shown high growth, achieving a 23.6% increase in June 2025, despite a high base in 2024 [2] - The import of bulk commodities has been a major drag, with most major imports, except for copper ore, experiencing a year-on-year price decline [2] Group 3 - The diversification of China's trade patterns is advancing, with emerging markets increasingly contributing to China's export share, while the share of exports to the US has decreased to around 12% [3] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with its share of exports rising to 17.8%, reflecting strengthened economic ties [3] - China's position in the EU import structure has remained stable, with its share around 21% since 2022, indicating stable bilateral trade relations [3] Group 4 - The structure of China's export goods is optimizing, with increasing competitiveness in high-end manufacturing products, which is expected to enhance export resilience [4] - The export share of high-end manufacturing goods, such as transportation equipment, is on the rise, while the share of textiles and miscellaneous products is declining [4] - Factors such as steady demand from emerging markets and stable trade relations with the EU are crucial for supporting China's export resilience amid global trade uncertainties [4]

Group 1 - The total value of foreign trade in Liaoning Province reached 304.8 billion yuan in the first five months of this year, with exports increasing by 12.1% to 161.55 billion yuan, setting a historical record for the same period [1] - Despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.8% in total import and export value, the decline has narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared to the first four months, indicating a clear trend of stabilization and recovery [1] - Private enterprises have emerged as the main force in foreign trade, with an import and export value of 158.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 52.1% of the province's total, up 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The structure of trade methods is optimizing, with general trade totaling 195.74 billion yuan, accounting for 64.2% of the total. Bonded logistics have surged, with imports and exports reaching 48.62 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.2% [1] - Liaoning's trade with the EU and ASEAN remains strong, with import and export values of 44.78 billion yuan and 43.58 billion yuan respectively. Trade with ASEAN has shown a robust growth rate of 14% [2] - Exports of electromechanical products, a key pillar, reached 80.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, accounting for 49.7% of total exports [2] Group 3 - The increase in exports to emerging markets and free trade partners, along with the significant rise in the share of private enterprises, reflects the effectiveness of national and local policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [3] - The achievements in foreign trade are indicative of the successful transformation and upgrading of Liaoning's industries, enhancing the international competitiveness of its enterprises [3] - The strong performance in foreign trade is expected to provide solid external support and confidence for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China [3]

Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's exports reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from April's 8.1% growth[2][3] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects, seasonal factors, and a slowdown in global trade demand, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.6[3][4] - High-tech products contributed more significantly to export growth compared to labor-intensive products, with high-tech exports growing by 4.9%[12][14] Import Trends - Imports in May 2025 totaled $212.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth[2][16] - The decline in imports is influenced by weak domestic demand and falling prices of bulk commodities, with significant drops in iron ore (down 12.5%) and coal (down 38.7%) imports[16][18] - High-end manufacturing imports, such as automatic data processing equipment and rubber, showed strong growth, increasing by 47.6% and 40% respectively[16][18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.22 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $96.18 billion[2] Market Outlook - Future export growth is expected to be supported by the release of previously accumulated orders following the Geneva talks, with a focus on diversifying markets in ASEAN, Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council[19][20] - Despite the current resilience in exports, long-term pressures remain due to high tariffs and ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the U.S.[20][24]

Core Insights - Shanghai's foreign trade import and export value reached 1.4 trillion RMB in the first four months of the year, marking a 1% increase year-on-year, with exports valued at 629.02 billion RMB, up 13.8% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Performance - In April, Shanghai's import and export value hit 399.35 billion RMB, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth exceeding 10%, achieving a historical high for the month [1] - Exports in April grew by 17.2% year-on-year, while imports increased by 8.1% [1] Group 2: New Product Categories - The emergence of new productive forces in Shanghai's foreign trade is characterized by four key trends: "Heavy," "Green," "Smart," and "Transform" [1][2] Heavy - Exports of shield machines and petrochemical machinery surged by 8.5 times and 35.3% respectively in the first four months, supporting infrastructure development in Belt and Road Initiative countries [1] Green - Exports of electric vehicles manufactured in Shanghai reached over 26 billion RMB, expanding to 104 countries and regions, with a 11-country increase from the previous year [1] - The export of energy storage batteries achieved a breakthrough of 1.62 billion RMB, marking a new growth area for Shanghai's foreign trade [1] Smart - Exports of CNC machine tools rose to 880 million RMB, reflecting a 31.5% increase [2] - The robotics industry in Shanghai is rapidly developing, with surgical robot exports increasing by 2.3 times, accounting for over 80% of the national total [2] Transform - Labor-intensive product exports reached 60.94 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, including significant increases in furniture, toys, and plastic products [2] - The export of competition and mountain bicycles grew by over 80% as they transitioned from mere transportation tools to sports equipment [2]

从商品结构看，前4个月，我省机电产品出口3270.7亿元，增长11.6%，占出口总值的48.2%。其中，汽 车零配件460.7亿元，增长3.4%；游戏机188.7亿元，增长102.4%；汽车173.8亿元，增长10.5%；电工器 材162.4亿元，增长9.7%。同期，劳密产品出口1206.7亿元，增长3.3%，占17.8%；农产品出口530.7亿 元，增长5.1%，占7.8%。（记者 孙源泽） 从贸易方式看，前4个月，我省一般贸易进出口7386.4亿元，增长6%，占65.5%。同期，保税物流进出 口1961.8亿元，增长11.4%，占17.4%；加工贸易进出口1586.4亿元，增长7.6%，占14.1%。 从贸易主体看，前4个月，我省民营企业进出口8604.2亿元，增长8.5%，占76.3%，提升0.7个百分点。 同期，外商投资企业进出口1621.5亿元，下降1.7%，占14.4%；国有企业进出口1048.8亿元，增长 15.9%，占9.3%。 从主要市场看，前4个月，我省对东盟、欧盟、美国、韩国、日本进出口保持增长。对东盟进出口 2255.9亿元，增长3.7%；欧盟1029.6亿元，增长6.6%；美国954 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 4 月外贸数据点评："抢转口"为出口提供韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 2025.05.08 投资要点： 4 月出口仍具韧性。以美元计价，4 月出口增速 8.1%，高于一季度出口增 速 6.4%，远超万得一致预期增速 0.8%。出口仍然具备韧性，主要源于 "抢转口"对出口的支撑。环比上看，4 月出口环比增速 0.6%，高于季 节性，同时，考虑到 3 月份抢出口冲量，4 月环比增速仍具韧性，指向出 口动能仍存。 分地区看，对美出口降温，对加拿大、东盟、拉美地区出口大幅提升。新 兴经济体方面，4 月，我国对东盟出口增速较上月几乎翻倍，其中，对越 南出口增速高达 22.5%。对印度出口增速 21.7%。我国对拉丁美洲出口增 速提升明显。发达经济体方面，对美国出口降温。同时，对加拿大、欧盟 出口提升。数据上看，4 月份出口"抢转口"迹象明显：中国对东盟、欧 ...