Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's fixed income head, He, indicated that the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December remains due to the ongoing weakness reflected in the unemployment rate [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing persistent weakness, as indicated by the unemployment rate [1] - The potential for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still on the table [1]

Core Viewpoint - On November 20, COMEX gold futures experienced volatility, initially reaching $4,109 before dropping to $4,034 and then rebounding to around $4,068, indicating a lack of sustainable bullish factors in the market [1] Market Performance - As of November 19, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 2.29 tons, bringing the total to 1,043.72 tons, ending a two-day outflow trend [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.53% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 0.66%, while Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 0.17% [1] Market Sentiment - Everbright Futures noted a decrease in market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to instability in U.S. stocks and subsequent fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold prices may struggle to break free from high volatility and could trend weaker in the short term [1] Investment Strategy - Given the unclear future trajectory of gold prices, the recommendation is to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider opportunistic buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is a focal point for the bond market, as it could either extinguish or reignite the market's faint expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - If the non-farm payroll data is weaker than expected, the market reaction will be significantly larger compared to data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations [3] - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, has risen to a two-month high, indicating increased uncertainty ahead of the data release [3] Group 2: Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate is expected to be a critical indicator, especially in the context of labor supply constraints due to strict immigration controls [3] - A stable unemployment rate would strengthen the argument for the Federal Reserve not needing to stimulate the economy, while even a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points could signal a strong need for policy support [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a decline of over 1% on November 20, with significant fluctuations in the largest A-share counterpart, the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180), which followed the index's downward trend [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reached a recent high of 6715.46 on October 2, but has since undergone a correction of over 15% in less than two months, including a "four consecutive days of decline" in the last four trading days [1] - Concerns regarding the "AI bubble" and the cooling of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have contributed to the pullback in the Hong Kong technology sector [1] Group 2 - Multiple institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of the Hong Kong technology and internet sector, with Cathay Pacific Securities believing that the AI wave will be a key theme for 2026 [1] - Shenyin Wanguo pointed out that AI is becoming a significant driving force in the Hong Kong internet industry, leading to accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with AI cloud products showing higher profit margins compared to traditional cloud products [2] - As of November 19, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) was 21.74 times, lower than other major global technology indices, indicating that the index is currently undervalued and presents a compelling investment opportunity [2]

高盛集团：美联储12月降息的可能性被低估了。 ...

【#政府停摆结束如何影响美国金融市场##专家称美联储12月降息仍存可能#】当地时间11月12日，美国 总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结束了已持续43天的史上最 长联邦政府"停摆"。美国金融市场将会如何走？中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表 示，经历了一系列风险情绪的波动后，市场情绪会有所恢复。在政府停摆期间，美国的就业数据推迟公 布，因此，当前需要关注美国就业数据是中长期趋势变化还是短期波动。"虽然美联储在政府停摆期间 释放出12月不一定降息的信号，若就业出现衰退趋势，仍然存在12月存在降息的可能，届时美元走势可 能延续贬值趋势。"对于金价，李钢指出，受美国政府停摆结束影响，黄金价格短期内可能阶段性调 整，从中长期来看，黄金存在上涨空间。（宅男财经） ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Coupe Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab, Center for Financial Research.Okay, so the bonds are back to work today. Uh we're seeing a little bit of slippage there for the 10 year. What are you watching as far as fixed income is concerned as we see some progress now with this House vote to end the government shutdown coup.>> Yeah, a little bit of slippage in the tenure today, but it is still con ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储博斯蒂克：很高兴美联储主席鲍威尔补充表述，称12月降息并非板上钉钉之事。 ...