Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is indicating that the current monetary policy cycle is expected to continue until 2025, based on all available data [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member, Centeno, emphasizes that all indicators point towards an extended monetary policy cycle [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause interest rate cuts in July after eight consecutive reductions, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - Some ECB officials believe the current rate-cutting cycle may be over, while others suggest waiting until September for another cut, with the outcome dependent on the trade negotiations deadline on July 9 [1][2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that current inflation is close to the 2% target, with the eurozone's May inflation rate falling below 2% for the first time in eight months, leading to a belief that the task of controlling inflation is nearing completion [2] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies are seen as a key variable affecting global confidence and economic growth prospects, creating uncertainty for the ECB's future actions [2] - Lagarde emphasized that the ECB's policy tools are ready to address uncertainties arising from global trade and increased European spending [2] - Following Lagarde's statements, market expectations for further ECB rate cuts this year have cooled, with traders no longer fully confident in another reduction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has appreciated against the US Dollar, with an intraday increase of 0.50%, currently trading at 1.1474. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that after today's interest rate cut, the ECB is nearing the end of its monetary policy cycle [1]. Group 1 - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has risen by 0.50% [1] - The current exchange rate stands at 1.1474 [1] - ECB President Lagarde's statement suggests a significant shift in monetary policy direction following the interest rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing complex dynamics influenced by economic uncertainties, monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment, with current prices reflecting a rebalancing from previous highs [3][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices are fluctuating between $3200 and $3230 per ounce in the London spot market, while domestic futures are around 750 yuan per gram [3]. - Compared to the historical high of $2800 in January 2024, current prices show significant gains, but have retreated nearly 10% from the April peak of $3500 [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range reflects a cautious policy shift, with expectations for a potential rate cut in July [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the escalating Israel-Palestine conflict and concerns over U.S. debt ratings, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold in 2024, with China increasing its reserves to 2292 tons over 16 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key technical support for gold is around $3200, with a potential breakout above $3230 signaling a new upward trend [5]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, increased its holdings by 2.3 tons to 921.03 tons, indicating institutional optimism for the medium to long term [5]. - COMEX gold inventories have been decreasing, reflecting resilient physical demand, with stocks dropping to 1210.58 tons as of May 15 [5]. Group 4: Future Price Drivers and Variables - The upcoming review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in August will be crucial for determining the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices [6]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Middle East tensions and U.S.-China trade relations, are expected to heighten inflation concerns, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - Long-term investors are advised to allocate 10%-15% of their portfolios to gold, balancing it with stocks and bonds to mitigate volatility [8]. - Short-term traders should focus on key price levels, employing strategies such as buying low and selling high, while setting strict stop-loss orders [8]. - The dynamic balance of risks, including potential dollar rebounds and geopolitical easing, necessitates careful monitoring and strategic adjustments in investment approaches [9].