整体看金价未来仍有上涨动力，黄金企业业绩有望受益于金价上涨。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 11月27日 ，金价及A股三大指数盘中回落，有色黄金相关ETF产品盘中走弱，截至13:52，有色金属ETF 基金(516650)涨幅收窄至0.73%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨0.53%，黄金ETF华夏(518850)盘中转跌0.19%。 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近9个交易日有8个交易日获资金布局，合计"吸金"3.57亿元。 渤海证券分析指出，短期看美国经济数据表现不会给美联储后续降息带来太大阻力，26 年美联储新主 席或受政治因素影响而超预期降息，或进一步利好金价。全球ETF 需求快速增长并且仍有增长潜力， 饰品需求受抑制但影响不大，工业需求保持平稳，央行长期购金空间仍足，黄金需求仍有支撑。从避险 和抗通胀方面看，短期看全球区域冲突事件频发激发避险需求，长期看美国债务风险居高不下将削弱美 元和美债吸引力，从而助推黄金作为避险和抗通胀资产的吸引力。 ...

都说茅台是个好股票，好在哪里？ 概括来讲。 其一在于在上一轮产业周期中，贵州茅台带领高端白酒行业让整个市场见证了其抵御周期的能力，大家将白酒股视作是一项长期跑赢通胀的资产，尤其 是拥有超长稳定性增长LTV内生性现金流的茅台。 其二是大家已经对其业绩确定性产生了惰性，默认线推业绩会持续以MDD水平增长，时至今日，仍有部分投资者认为高端白酒尤其是茅台的业绩不存在 大幅下修的基础。"我只不过在2015年买了茅台而已"，如今变成了"我只不过在2025年买了茅台而已"。由此可见，大家对茅台的容错率仍旧是很高的。 条件一需要需要看到茅台持续的高分红和高 ROE ，二则需要看到茅台持续上行的利润曲线。再往下拆解茅台确定性和成长性的来源，其实一与二均依 托于茅台的价增。飞天价增因子的持续性最终兑现成为茅台公司业绩的抗逆性、成长性。 抗通胀性再审视 在通常认知里，"必需消费抗通胀"更像是一条定律。而复盘不同商品售价CAGR来看，大部分必需消费品跑不赢通胀，必需消费品行业股票收益率也不 一定跑赢沪深300。"通胀受益品种"需要的至少是"量稳利增"，而究其原因，这些被定义为"必需消费"的行业传递成本的能力是有限的，并且在涨价的过 ...

就在全球央行都在疯狂买黄金的时候，一个重量级玩家却突然反手抛售。 俄罗斯中央银行在2025年11月下旬开始出售国家储备中的实物黄金。 作为全球黄金储备排名第五的国家，这一动作立刻引发了市场关注。 推动金价上涨的重要力量突然出现转向，让不少投资者心里打鼓：这轮黄金牛市真的要结束了吗？ 俄罗斯央行抛售黄金的直接原因是为了弥补国家预算缺口。 自2022年乌克兰危机升级后，欧盟和七国集团冻结了俄罗斯接近一半的外汇储备，总额约3000亿欧元。 其中大约2000亿欧元存放在欧洲清算银行等机构的账户中，俄罗斯政府无法动用这些资金。 油气出口收入一直是俄罗斯财政的支柱。 但在西方实施能源限价等制裁措施后，今年上半年俄罗斯油气收入同比下降了16.9%。 财政赤字迅速扩大至3.69万亿卢布，这个数字已经逼近全年规划的上限。 面对外汇储备被冻结和财政收入下滑的双重压力，俄罗斯央行不得不采取行动。 俄罗斯是全球第二大黄金生产国，每年开采量超过300吨。 然而自2022年以来，俄罗斯金条被禁止进入西方市场，英国伦敦金银市场协会也不再接受俄罗斯黄金。 这些制裁措施导致俄罗斯黄金出口渠道严重受阻。 为应对这一局面，俄罗斯政府取消了零售黄金 ...

Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, averaging a decrease of 2,500 jobs per week in the first four weeks of November, compared to an increase of 14,000 jobs in the first half of October, signaling a shift from growth to contraction in the job market [2] - Weak employment data suggests a decrease in economic vitality, leading to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically supports gold prices as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset [2] - Following the employment report, gold prices rebounded, reflecting the market's direct response to the anticipated policy shift [2] Group 2 - Gold's significance extends beyond investment; it serves as a "safety net" for individuals facing financial difficulties, as illustrated by a couple who turned to their gold jewelry for emergency cash to manage their living expenses and debts [3] - The value of gold is highlighted as not just a symbol of wealth but also as a crucial asset that can be liquidated in times of need, providing financial security during market volatility [3][4] - The narrative emphasizes that while gold prices may fluctuate, its intrinsic value remains constant, serving as a reliable resource in challenging times [3][4] Group 3 - Recommendations suggest that individuals should consider allocating a portion of their investments to gold (such as gold bars or ETFs) to combat inflation and diversify risk [5] - In urgent situations, converting idle gold jewelry into cash can help avoid falling into debt traps, showcasing gold's role as a last line of defense against financial uncertainty [5] - The enduring nature of gold as a hard currency reinforces its position as a critical asset for individuals to mitigate risks in an unpredictable market [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced fluctuations and consolidation, with total trading volume decreasing to 1.72 trillion yuan, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment among investors [1] - On November 20, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for the five-year term, aligning with market expectations [2] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue implementing moderately accommodative monetary policies to promote economic recovery, with potential for further LPR adjustments [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes revealed a significant division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a cautious approach to balancing anti-inflation and recession prevention [1][3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has significantly decreased to about 30% probability, influenced by the Fed's data-dependent stance [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October employment report will not be released, delaying key employment data to December 16, which adds uncertainty to the Fed's future decisions [3] Market Performance - On November 20, the A-share market saw declines across major indices: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% to 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 0.76% to 12980.82 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% to 3042.34 points [4] - In terms of sector performance, construction materials, comprehensive services, and banking sectors showed gains, while beauty care, coal, and electrical equipment sectors faced notable declines [4] Fund Flow - The market's trading volume was reported at 17,227.98 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin financing balance was recorded at 24,979.40 billion yuan, also showing a decline compared to the prior day [5]

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 5.66% at HKD 15.83, Tongguan Gold down 4.3% at HKD 2.67, China Silver Group down 4.55% at HKD 0.63, Zijin Mining International down 4.16% at HKD 133.7, and China Gold International down 3.73% at HKD 131.7 [1] - On Tuesday, gold prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day [1] - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped from 70% to 40% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for caution in further rate cuts to avoid undermining anti-inflation efforts [1] - The labor market risks are skewed to the downside, but the need for a cautious approach remains as interest rates approach neutral levels [1] - CITIC Futures noted that as the Fed's stance turns more hawkish, the probability of a December rate cut decreases, leading to a continued adjustment phase for precious metals [1]

数据显示，当地时间11月17日，美股三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.18%，标普500指数跌0.92%，纳指跌0.84%。美国科技七巨头指数跌0.47%，英伟达、苹 果跌近2%，谷歌涨超3%。中概股多数下跌。 美股三大股指全线收跌 当地时间11月17日，美股三大股指全线收跌。数据显示，截至收盘，道指跌1.18%报46590.24点，标普500指数跌0.92%报6672.41点，纳指跌0.84%报 22708.07点。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.47%。个股方面，谷歌涨超3%，特斯拉涨逾1%，苹果、英伟达跌近2%，亚马逊、微软小幅下跌。 消息层面，此前巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司披露2025年第三季度持股报告（13F）显示，伯克希尔三季度新建仓1784万股谷歌母公司Alphabet的股 票，使之一跃成为其第十大持仓股票。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.21%。个股方面，阿特斯太阳能跌超15%，小鹏汽车跌超10%，禾赛科技跌逾6%，晶科能源涨超13%，金山 云涨近9%，大全新能源涨超3%，阿里巴巴、华住集团涨超2%。 | S | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC) 11-17 16: ...

Market Performance - On November 17, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.18% at 46,590.24 points, the S&P 500 down 0.92% at 6,672.41 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.84% at 22,708.07 points [2][10] - The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.47%, with major tech stocks like Nvidia and Apple dropping nearly 2%, while Google rose over 3% [4][10] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 1.21%, with notable declines in Chinese stocks such as Arctech Solar down over 15% and XPeng Motors down over 10%. However, JinkoSolar rose over 13% and Kingsoft Cloud increased nearly 9% [7][8] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson emphasized the need for caution in further interest rate cuts to avoid undermining anti-inflation efforts, indicating a downward risk in the labor market [11] - Another Fed official, Waller, suggested that a rate cut in December could be warranted due to a weak labor market and its impact on low-income consumers [11] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.2% at $4,045.1 per ounce and silver futures down 1.25% at $50.05 per ounce. Crude oil prices also declined, with US oil down 0.62% at $59.72 per barrel [12]

一面是25万美元现金，一面是30吨5分硬币，必须选一个，你会怎么选？今天聊个新鲜事。美国有位金融从业者耗时四个多月，从银行系统分批兑换并囤积 了重近30吨的5美分硬币。他为什么要这么做？背后有哪些套利机会？又蕴含着哪些风险？ 出品：飞钱说工作室 栏目统筹：耿雁冰 栏目策划：杨希 主播：冯紫彤 本期文案：冯紫彤 视频制作：董凌含 视频指导：曾婷芳 设计：王冰 编辑：杨希 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve officials should exercise caution regarding further interest rate cuts, as a strong economic rebound is expected in early next year, driven by factors such as the end of government shutdowns and fiscal support [1][2] - The current Federal Reserve policy rate is nearing a level that will not exert downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking overly accommodative monetary policy [1] - There is a growing economic pressure on low- and middle-income households, as many are increasingly seeking assistance from food banks and utility payment aid, highlighting the erosion of consumer purchasing power due to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - Approximately 40% of the inflation above the 2% target is attributed to tariff factors, and decision-makers need to address other price-increasing elements, including persistent service sector inflation [2] - Despite a softening labor market and potential increases in unemployment due to government shutdowns, employment is expected to stabilize near full employment levels [2] - Concerns about asset valuations have been raised, with indications that housing prices appear high relative to historical standards and stock prices are also elevated, reflecting the effects of a loose financial environment [2]