Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% due to concerns over a potential economic "hard landing" following a collapse in ADP data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing a shift in market expectations regarding its monetary policy, with ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel expressing comfort with the idea of potential rate hikes rather than cuts, challenging the narrative of synchronized easing in the West [2][3] - Schnabel's hawkish stance is supported by two macroeconomic factors: the stubbornness of service sector inflation and significant government spending on defense and infrastructure, which is counteracting external demand weakness [5][6] Group 2 - The ECB is likely to revise its economic growth forecasts upward in the upcoming meeting on December 18, which could contradict current market pessimism and support a recovery in the euro against the dollar [5][6] - The misalignment in monetary policy cycles between the US and Eurozone is driving a convergence in interest rate differentials favorable to the euro, with US Treasury yields declining due to recession risks while Eurozone yields remain constrained by persistent inflation [6][7] - The outlook for the euro is cautiously optimistic due to the long-term certainty of diverging monetary policies, although there is a low probability that the Federal Reserve may emphasize inflation risks and refrain from cutting rates, which could lead to a strong rebound in the dollar [7]

Group 1: XAU/USD Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through 3783.6 before retreating, with a daily range of 493 points and a small bullish close [3] - Current early morning prices have breached the 3791 to 3798.6 range, approaching the 3800 mark, supported by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and de-dollarization trends [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3810/3815, with support at 3758/3735, suggesting a strategy of selling at 3810/3815 and buying on dips to 3760 [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Analysis - The analysis notes a loss on a short position due to the price reaching 1.1707, with a daily close showing a small bullish trend influenced by rising French debt and EU trade proposals [6] - Resistance levels are set at 1.180/1.184, while support is at 1.161/1.166, with a recommendation to buy at 1.169/1.170 [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD analysis highlights a loss on a short position as the price reached 1.3412, with attention on inflation impacts and US-UK tariff negotiations [10] - Resistance levels are identified at 1.350/1.355 and support at 1.332/1.337, with a buy recommendation at 1.337/1.338 [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Analysis - The GBP/JPY market saw upward movement with a high of 200.5 before retreating, maintaining an upward trend above key support levels [14] - Resistance is noted at 201.3/200.7, with support at 199.1/198.6, and a buy recommendation on dips to 199.8-199.9 [15] Group 5: Fundamental Reminders - Key economic indicators to watch include UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone economic sentiment, US existing home sales, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [17]

Group 1 - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) has seen a slight decline of over ten points, currently reported at 1.1725 [1]

Group 1 - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) has seen a short-term increase of over ten points, breaking through the 1.17 level [1] - The daily increase in the EUR/USD is 0.06% [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has decreased to 147, reflecting a daily drop of 1.24% [1] - The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased by over 1.00%, currently reported at 1.1719 [1]

Group 1 - The euro has fallen below 1.16 against the US dollar, reaching a new low since June 25, with a daily decline of 0.54% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Non-US currencies have strengthened, with the euro to dollar (EUR/USD) and pound to dollar (GBP/USD) rising nearly 30 points, while the dollar to yen (USD/JPY) has fallen over 20 points [1] Currency Movements - EUR/USD experienced a short-term increase of nearly 30 points [1] - GBP/USD also saw a short-term rise of nearly 30 points [1] - USD/JPY faced a short-term decline of more than 20 points [1]

Group 1 - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) decreased by 0.2%, trading at 1.1667 [1] - The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) fell by 0.14%, currently at 147.18 [1]

Group 1 - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 20 points, currently reported at 1.1701 [1]

Group 1 - The euro has risen against the US dollar to 1.1641, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1]