Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile. The price of rebar futures is likely to oscillate, and the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets may also show a weak and volatile pattern [1][3][4][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 185 (+5) [1]. - Macroscopically, Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high - tariffs on China on April 22, but China emphasized that no economic and trade negotiations had been carried out. The Politburo meeting on April 25 showed no strong stimulus signals [1]. - Industrially, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production remained stable, and the inventory removal speed was still fast. Steel demand usually declines seasonally in mid - to late May, and the peak season window in the first half of the year is short. There was speculation about steel mill production restrictions last Friday, but no official document has been issued yet [1]. - In terms of valuation, the rebar futures price has fallen to near the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, only higher than the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level. In terms of driving factors, the China - US tariff policy is expected to have repeated games, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies in China in the short term is small. The real supply and demand are acceptable, but tariffs affect exports and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to whether the production restriction policy is implemented [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures market oscillated. Trump's statement about possible tariff reduction eased international trade tensions. The pig iron output increased unexpectedly, leading to expectations of a peak and subsequent decline. There were also concerns about the sustainability of exports [1]. - In terms of supply, global shipments were basically the same as last week, with an increase in Australian shipments and a decrease in Brazilian shipments. The port throughput decreased, some berthing pressure was released, and the port inventory increased [1]. - In terms of demand, pig iron output increased significantly, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased. Steel mills' resumption of production accelerated this week, finished product prices were stable, and steel mills' production enthusiasm increased. There were rumors of crude steel production restrictions last weekend, but no specific policy documents were seen. Even if true, the 50 million - ton production restriction is small compared to the total, and it is difficult to form a positive feedback. The iron ore market is in a stage of strong supply and demand but is about to enter the traditional off - season. Considering the possible peak of pig iron output and continued international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [1][3]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in major producing areas maintained stable production. Some coal types adjusted their quotes slightly due to inventory pressure, but the overall inventory pressure was controllable, and mainstream coal mines were reluctant to lower prices. Mongolian coal supply was limited due to low customs clearance at the Mongolian border and a sluggish auction market, and the support for port quotes weakened [4]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates, and rigid demand provided some support for coal prices. However, the slow repair of steel mill profits restricted the raw material replenishment space, and the market was skeptical about the sustainability of terminal demand. Downstream pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm was low, and the procurement rhythm of intermediate links slowed down significantly. The coking coal market may continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and the sustainability of high pig iron output [4]. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in major producing areas maintained normal production rhythms, and the overall capacity utilization rate remained stable [5]. - In terms of demand, the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces drove pig iron output to remain high, and the replenishment demand was released periodically. However, affected by the expected seasonal weakening of the terminal market, the procurement rhythm became more cautious. Some steel mills preferred stamp - charged coke with a higher cost - performance ratio, and the demand for top - charged coke was significantly differentiated. The market was skeptical about the external demand pressure in May and the resilience of steel demand, and steel mills' resistance to price increases of raw materials increased. The second - round price negotiation was deadlocked. The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term supported by blast furnace rigid demand, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations and negative feedback in the industrial chain. Future attention should be paid to changes in blast furnace pig iron output and the digestion rhythm of steel mill raw material inventories [5]. Industrial and Economic News - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to issue the list of all projects for the "Two - Key" construction and central budgetary investment in 2025 by the end of June and set up new policy - based financial instruments to solve the problem of insufficient project construction capital [6]. - The "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" was released, with the number of items reduced from 117 to 106. It prohibits new production capacity of steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and coal chemical industry in key areas [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted measures for the 2025 Labor Day holiday. Starting from the settlement on April 29, the daily price limit for iron ore futures is 10% and the margin is 12%; for coke, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin remains unchanged; for coking coal, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin is 13% [6]. - As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of personal housing loans was 38 trillion yuan, an increase of about 220 billion yuan, and a year - on - year increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of last year [6]. - Trump signed an announcement on April 29 allowing a certain degree of compensation for automobile producers assembling cars in the US and importing auto parts. The compensation can offset part of the tariffs on auto parts, with a maximum of 3.75% of the retail price of the car in the first year and 2.5% in the second year. The 25% tariff on imported cars officially took effect on April 3, and the 25% tariff on key auto parts is planned to take effect on May 3 [6]. - The Dongguan Housing and Urban - Rural Development Bureau released a draft for soliciting opinions, encouraging new residential projects obtaining construction permits from May 1, 2025, to implement full - decoration. It also encourages the "sample - first" approach and a "menu - style" full - decoration model [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move in a range, while government bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore is expected to weaken slightly, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7]. - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move sideways, while soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][20]. - Cotton spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen slightly, and PTA is expected to weaken slightly [1][31]. - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline, and oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][32]. Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, supply and demand dynamics, and international trade relations [1][5]. - Tariff policies and trade frictions have a significant impact on the market, and investors need to pay attention to the development of these issues [5][7]. - The supply and demand situation of each product is different, and investors need to analyze the specific situation of each product to make investment decisions [7][12]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures are expected to move in a range due to the low probability of major positive policies before the holiday and the need for defensive strategies [5]. - Government bonds are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the low - volatility market may continue until clear policy signals or economic data are released [5]. Black building materials - Rebar is expected to move sideways. Although the current supply - demand situation is acceptable, the impact of tariffs on exports and the seasonal decline in demand may lead to weak market expectations. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs to be observed [7]. - Iron ore is expected to weaken slightly. The increase in iron - water production has led to expectations of a peak and decline, and concerns about the sustainability of exports. The supply and demand are both strong, but it is about to enter the traditional off - season [7]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways. The coking coal market may maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the coke market may maintain a tight supply - demand balance. The focus is on the release of terminal demand and the change of inventory [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to move in a high - level range. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is supported by the peak season. However, the upward space is limited by the impact of the trade war on the global economy [12]. - Aluminum is recommended for observation. The supply of the mine end is improving, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price may continue to rebound, but the overall situation needs to be further observed [14]. - Nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies. The supply is excessive, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The focus is on the impact of Indonesian policies and downstream demand [15]. - Tin is recommended for trading within a range. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price may fluctuate greatly [17]. - Gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range. The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and interest - rate expectations. The price is expected to be in an adjustment state [18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term price is affected by macro factors and export and maintenance conditions [20]. - Caustic soda is expected to move sideways. The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. The focus is on inventory changes and export conditions [21]. - Rubber is expected to move sideways. The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The price is affected by factors such as weather, inventory, and demand [22]. - Urea is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is affected by factors such as production progress and inventory [24]. - Methanol is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and port supply [26]. - Plastic is expected to move sideways. The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by factors such as new capacity, demand, and inventory [28]. - Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure until sufficient maintenance occurs [28]. Cotton spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply. The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to observe in the near future [30]. - Apples are expected to strengthen slightly. The inventory is low, and the demand is good. The focus is on the fruit - setting situation [30]. - PTA is expected to weaken slightly. The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are not good. The price is under pressure [31]. Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [32]. - Eggs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are both increasing, and the risk of a decline after the May Day holiday needs to be guarded against. The long - term supply pressure is increasing [34]. - Corn is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes [35]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline in the short term and rise in the long term. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term cost is increasing and the supply is tightening [37]. - Oils and fats are expected to move sideways. The short - term price has certain upward momentum, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [38].