Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell put options [3] Core View of the Report - The lead price may temporarily fluctuate strongly due to smelters holding back supply. After a long - term consolidation, the spot trading of lead is gradually improving, and there is a chance that the peak - season demand will be realized [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On August 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] - **Futures**: On August 7, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 32,431 lots, down 16,214 lots, and the position was 62,019 lots, down 3,000 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.15% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 800 tons from last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 269,400 tons, up 800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Supply and Demand - Lead prices strengthened, leading to an increase in the enthusiasm of holders to sell. Some smelters held back supply and quoted firm prices, while downstream buyers were cautious and the market trading was generally light [2] Strategy - **Absolute price**: Temporarily use buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 16,600 yuan/ton and 16,650 yuan/ton [3] - **Option strategy**: Sell put options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The downstream备货 enthusiasm for lead is poor, and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The market for mainstream lead sources has relatively active inquiries, but the secondary lead market remains sluggish. The peak - season demand is not significantly evident, so the lead price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and a short strangle option strategy [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 25.21 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 40.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,910 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,419 lots, a decrease of 23,791 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,992 lots, an increase of 7,720 lots. During the day, the price oscillated, with a high of 16,945 yuan/ton and a low of 16,840 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,865 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand Situation - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, sellers offered at the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Hunan region, some smelters had low inventories, mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and suspended spot sales or raised the premium to 100 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price, with actual transactions at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. In the Jiangxi region, sellers offered at a premium of 50 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price. In the Yunnan region, sellers offered at a discount of 240 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Due to the weak lead price, downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant, and as the end of the month approached, smelters' inventories decreased, and their enthusiasm for sales also declined, resulting in a dull market [2] Inventory Situation - On July 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous week. As of July 24, the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, an increase of 6,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and the option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is gradually entering the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, and the rising prices have stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, showing a "buying on the rise" characteristic. The improvement in macro sentiment and the spillover of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices to some extent [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$22.14/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,105 yuan/ton, closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,321 lots, a decrease of 8,329 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,408 lots, a decrease of 392 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,095 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On June 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 30, the LME lead inventory was 271,925 tons, an increase of 175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, consider buying on dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at a strike price of 16,500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - There are expectations for the peak season of lead, which supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 0.15% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 40,650 lots, a decrease of 11,993 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,471 lots, a decrease of 402 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,800 lots, an increase of 618 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 151,106 lots, a decrease of 738 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -22.14 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.74 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 45,885 tons, an increase of 607 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 273,425 tons, an increase of 175 tons [1] - **Others**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 70,675 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; the comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -304 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, they decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend intensity is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - As the lead battery consumption peak season in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton, closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 26,206 lots, down 672 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 28,273 lots, down 5,834 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,825 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,925 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The lead price in the futures market was weak and volatile. In different regions, the quotation methods and discounts or premiums varied, and the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement with poor enthusiasm for stocking at low prices [2] Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, down 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, the LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for lead is neutral. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The arbitrage strategy is to be postponed [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the demand support from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On June 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -33.19 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, closed at 16,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,557 lots, an increase of 6,561 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 40,054 lots, a decrease of 1,403 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,925 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the afternoon closing price [2] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 140 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The lead futures price weakened during the day, downstream buyers were cautious and waited and watched, and some holders slightly increased the discount to sell. The overall spot market transaction was light [3] Inventory - On June 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 18, the LME lead inventory was 289,475 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: On hold [3] Core View - As it is currently the off - season for lead - acid battery consumption and the overall commodity and equity markets are relatively weak, appropriate sell - hedging operations can be carried out for lead [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On April 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.56 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -225 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -275 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -250 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -325 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,825 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On April 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton, closed at 16,540 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,232 lots, down 41,129 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 42,720 lots, down 1,608 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,520 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,580 yuan/ton, closed at 16,590 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated at a low level yesterday. Some sellers lowered their offer premiums to sell and achieved some transactions. The discount of the ex - factory price of electrolytic lead smelters (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract) narrowed again, and some even offered at a premium. Recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with significantly fewer quotes. Some offered at a premium of 0 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. Downstream enterprises actively inquired, but there were still differences in actual transactions. Some purchased as needed, while others continued to wait and see [2] Inventory - On April 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the same period last week. As of April 8, the LME lead inventory was 235,725 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]