1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the demand support from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On June 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -33.19 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, closed at 16,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,557 lots, an increase of 6,561 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 40,054 lots, a decrease of 1,403 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,925 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the afternoon closing price [2] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 140 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The lead futures price weakened during the day, downstream buyers were cautious and waited and watched, and some holders slightly increased the discount to sell. The overall spot market transaction was light [3] Inventory - On June 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 18, the LME lead inventory was 289,475 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: On hold [3] Core View - As it is currently the off - season for lead - acid battery consumption and the overall commodity and equity markets are relatively weak, appropriate sell - hedging operations can be carried out for lead [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On April 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.56 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -225 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -275 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -250 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -325 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,825 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On April 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton, closed at 16,540 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 49,232 lots, down 41,129 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 42,720 lots, down 1,608 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,520 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,580 yuan/ton, closed at 16,590 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Market Conditions - According to SMM, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated at a low level yesterday. Some sellers lowered their offer premiums to sell and achieved some transactions. The discount of the ex - factory price of electrolytic lead smelters (against the SHFE lead 2505 contract) narrowed again, and some even offered at a premium. Recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with significantly fewer quotes. Some offered at a premium of 0 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. Downstream enterprises actively inquired, but there were still differences in actual transactions. Some purchased as needed, while others continued to wait and see [2] Inventory - On April 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the same period last week. As of April 8, the LME lead inventory was 235,725 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]