2025 年 08 月 20 日 铅：海外库存大幅增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16825 | 0.30% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1980.5 | -0.03% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 27255 | -3340 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6041 | 2208 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 48112 | -1384 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 159411 | 297 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -25 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -44 | -5.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -10 | 5 | 进口升贴水（美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2) Core View The continuous decrease in LME lead inventory supports the lead price [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 29,986 lots, a decrease of 5,637 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,046 lots, a decrease of 1,309 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,223 lots, a decrease of 3,172 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,920 lots, an increase of 369 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.21 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -641.32 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.7 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was -631.96 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.84 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,791 tons, an increase of 1,108 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,025 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that starting from August 12, 2025, the implementation of the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days [1]. - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February [1]. [Lead Trend Intensity] The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell put options [3] Core View of the Report - The lead price may temporarily fluctuate strongly due to smelters holding back supply. After a long - term consolidation, the spot trading of lead is gradually improving, and there is a chance that the peak - season demand will be realized [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On August 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] - **Futures**: On August 7, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 32,431 lots, down 16,214 lots, and the position was 62,019 lots, down 3,000 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.15% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 800 tons from last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 269,400 tons, up 800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Supply and Demand - Lead prices strengthened, leading to an increase in the enthusiasm of holders to sell. Some smelters held back supply and quoted firm prices, while downstream buyers were cautious and the market trading was generally light [2] Strategy - **Absolute price**: Temporarily use buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 16,600 yuan/ton and 16,650 yuan/ton [3] - **Option strategy**: Sell put options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The downstream备货 enthusiasm for lead is poor, and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The market for mainstream lead sources has relatively active inquiries, but the secondary lead market remains sluggish. The peak - season demand is not significantly evident, so the lead price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and a short strangle option strategy [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 25.21 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 40.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,910 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,419 lots, a decrease of 23,791 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,992 lots, an increase of 7,720 lots. During the day, the price oscillated, with a high of 16,945 yuan/ton and a low of 16,840 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,865 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand Situation - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, sellers offered at the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Hunan region, some smelters had low inventories, mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and suspended spot sales or raised the premium to 100 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price, with actual transactions at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. In the Jiangxi region, sellers offered at a premium of 50 - 150 yuan/ton above the SMM1 lead price. In the Yunnan region, sellers offered at a discount of 240 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Due to the weak lead price, downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant, and as the end of the month approached, smelters' inventories decreased, and their enthusiasm for sales also declined, resulting in a dull market [2] Inventory Situation - On July 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous week. As of July 24, the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, an increase of 6,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to buy low and sell high between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton, and the option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is gradually entering the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, and the rising prices have stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, showing a "buying on the rise" characteristic. The improvement in macro sentiment and the spillover of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices to some extent [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$22.14/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,105 yuan/ton, closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,321 lots, a decrease of 8,329 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,408 lots, a decrease of 392 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,095 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On June 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 30, the LME lead inventory was 271,925 tons, an increase of 175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, consider buying on dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at a strike price of 16,500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - There are expectations for the peak season of lead, which supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 0.15% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 40,650 lots, a decrease of 11,993 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,471 lots, a decrease of 402 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,800 lots, an increase of 618 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 151,106 lots, a decrease of 738 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -22.14 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.74 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 45,885 tons, an increase of 607 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 273,425 tons, an increase of 175 tons [1] - **Others**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 70,675 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; the comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -304 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, they decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend intensity is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - As the lead battery consumption peak season in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton, closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 26,206 lots, down 672 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 28,273 lots, down 5,834 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,825 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,925 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The lead price in the futures market was weak and volatile. In different regions, the quotation methods and discounts or premiums varied, and the downstream maintained rigid demand procurement with poor enthusiasm for stocking at low prices [2] Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, down 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 23, the LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for lead is neutral. It is recommended to adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy for the Pb2507 contract, with an operating range of 16,200 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The arbitrage strategy is to be postponed [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the demand support from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On June 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -33.19 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, closed at 16,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,557 lots, an increase of 6,561 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 40,054 lots, a decrease of 1,403 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,925 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the afternoon closing price [2] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 140 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The lead futures price weakened during the day, downstream buyers were cautious and waited and watched, and some holders slightly increased the discount to sell. The overall spot market transaction was light [3] Inventory - On June 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 18, the LME lead inventory was 289,475 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 20.67 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,697 lots, a decrease of 4,123 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,021 lots, an increase of 2,957 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude. Near the end of the month and with the start of new monthly long - term orders, the trading volume in the spot market decreased [2] Inventory - On May 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 28, the LME lead inventory was 291,050 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell call options [3][4]