市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-05，LME铅现货升水为-46.54美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17225 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/ 吨至17300元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17275元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化150元/吨至17300元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-150元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10375 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17395元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交38065手，较前一交易日变化-39893手，全天交易日持仓47544手，手较前一交易日变化2132手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17480元/吨，最低点达到17300元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17385元/吨，收于17455元/吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 现货成交清淡 铅价再陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-25，LME铅现货升水为-37.81美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25元 /吨至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化75元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-25，沪铅主力合约开于17215元/吨，收于17315元/吨，较前一交易日变化90元/吨，全天交易日 成交55100手，较前一交易日变化-12922手，全天交易日持仓56328手，手较前一交易日变化-210手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17345元/吨，最低点达到17205元/吨 ...

下游以签订长单为主 现货成交持续清淡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 现货方面：2025-12-23，LME铅现货升水为-46.89美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16875 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16900元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至16875元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化50元 /吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-23，沪铅主力合约开于16920元/吨，收于16995元/吨，较前一交易日变化75元/吨，全天交易日 成交44610手，较前一交易日变化-4634手，全天交易日持仓58086手，手较前一交易日变化-1500手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17025元/吨，最低点达到16915 ...

2025 年 12 月 04 日 美国 11 月 ADP 意外下滑，就业人数减少 3.2 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激 增，使投资者几乎完全确信美联储下周将降息。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铅：库存减少，限制价格回调 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17210 | 0.00% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1993.5 | -0.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 27017 | -25060 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5243 | -5336 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 46 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-25，LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-25，沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨，收于17045元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40496手，较前一交易日变化2076手，全天交易日持仓52466手，手较前一交易日变化-422手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Report gives a neutral rating for the lead industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some regions is also tight. Therefore, the lead price is showing a range - bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On October 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.69/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all remained unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference, waste electric vehicle battery price, waste white - shell battery price, and waste black - shell battery price also remained unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 29,011 lots (a decrease of 14,526 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 26,547 lots (a decrease of 7,009 lots). During the night session, it opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous day. Different regions had different pricing strategies for lead. The regional supply of lead ingots remained tight, and with the approaching end of the current - month long - term contracts, the supply of spot goods was limited. Some downstream buyers made purchases as needed, while others waited for the execution of new - month long - term contracts [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On October 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 22, the LME lead inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly recovered under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range - bound oscillation pattern, with an expected oscillation range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,537 lots, an increase of 15,881 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,556 lots, a decrease of 4,639 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan offered a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead, and holders offered a discount of 80 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Smelters in Hunan offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales. Holders in Yunnan offered a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 350 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, the supply of electrolytic lead in some areas was slightly tight, and the trading of scattered orders was fair [2] Inventory - On October 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 21, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral. The option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market trading has become lighter, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises is relatively weak due to the approaching National Day holiday, the lead ore supply remains relatively tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 113 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,065 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,110 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,845 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price [2] Inventory - On September 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 29, the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market, with the buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]

Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]