新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-05 买卖双方存在拉锯情况 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-03-04，LME铅现货升水为-49.27美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16575 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-50元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2026-03-04，沪铅主力合约开于16780元/吨，收于16840元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，全天交易日 成交46772手，较前一交易日变化-6889手，全天交易日持仓59776手，手较前一交易日变化-439手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16860元/吨，最低点达到1674 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场成交仍明显偏淡 铅价反弹或难持续 现货方面：2026-02-10，LME铅现货升水为-49.30美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至16525 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化100元 /吨至16575元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/吨至16550元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化125元/吨至16600元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-10，沪铅主力合约开于16665元/吨，收于16665元/吨，较前一交易日变化80元/吨，全天交易日 成交58100手，较前一交易日变化8455手，全天交易日持仓42295手，手较前一交易日变化-8010手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16560元/吨。夜盘方面 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 企业逢低备货积极性仍差 铅价难有强劲表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-04，LME铅现货升水为-51.98美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16425 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至16500元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16400元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-25元/吨至16475元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10225元/ 吨。 期货方面：2026-02-04，沪铅主力合约开于16640元/吨，收于16590元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，全天交易日 成交50833手，较前一交易日变化-21462手，全天交易日持仓58276手，手较前一交易日变化3527手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16670元/吨，最 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

现货成交偏淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-28，LME铅现货升水为-47.43美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元 /吨至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-50元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10325元 /吨。 期货方面：2026-01-28，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于16995元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5元/吨，全天交易日 成交53913手，较前一交易日变化-8210手，全天交易日持仓59512手，手较前一交易日变化-1288手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17080元/吨，最低点达到16915元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于173 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove the lead price up, but it fell back with the general correction of non - ferrous metal prices in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On January 20, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,250 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,736 lots, a decrease of 34,227 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 74,190 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,275 yuan/ton and a low of 17,180 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, with the overall spot market being dull [2] Inventory - On January 20, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 19, the LME lead inventory was 225,575 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the price range of 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are oscillating at low levels, with declining inventories and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening towards the year - end. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton. In actual operations, it is currently recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On December 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.89 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan to 1,6875 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin lead spot prices and premiums also changed by 50 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells changed by 50 yuan, 25 yuan, and 0 yuan per ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,920 yuan per ton and closed at 16,995 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,086 lots, a decrease of 1,500 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,030 yuan per ton and closed at 17,050 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan from the afternoon close. Near the end of the year, some traders stopped trading for inventory checks after selling out their stocks, and downstream buyers mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts, resulting in overall light market trading [2] - **Inventory**: On December 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, the LME lead inventory was 253,100 tons, a decrease of 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The expected trading range for the main contract is 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton [4] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide straddle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The reduction in lead inventory restricts price corrections [1] - The unexpected decline in the US ADP employment in November has made investors almost completely convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,210 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,993.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 27,017 lots, a decrease of 25,060 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,243 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,627 lots, a decrease of 974 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 171,881 lots, an increase of 574 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.45 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.45 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 85.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.93 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -109.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.6 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 16,629 tons, a decrease of 1,502 tons; LME lead inventory was 253,150 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 306 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023, with a sharp increase in the number of unemployed in small businesses, leading investors to almost fully believe that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]