新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-19 目前铅品种呈现明显供需两弱格局，旺季需求在蓄电池中并无明显体现，不过近期在宏观因素作用下有色板块整 体相对偏强，故目前铅价预计仍将在16,350至17,050间波动。 风险 下游维持刚需采购 铅价偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-18，LME铅现货升水为-43.24美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16675 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化0元/吨至16700元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10175元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-18，沪铅主力合约开于16810元/吨，收于16775元/吨，较前一交易日变化-75元/吨，全天交易日 成交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral; Option strategy:暂缓 [4] Core View - The downstream has a fear of price drops, leading to sluggish trading in the spot market. The domestic ore supply remains relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious yet. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Therefore, the current operation is mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][2][4] Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan/ton, closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,614 lots, down 988 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 53,407 lots, up 740 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The downside of lead may be relatively limited [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 6,877 lots, an increase of 500 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 142,147 lots, a decrease of 2,744 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -32.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.84 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,768 tons, an increase of 3,638 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons [1] 3. News - The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for five consecutive months. The "New Fed Wire" said that the June CPI data would not change the Fed's decision [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

General Information - Report Date: 2025-07-08 [23][38] - Analysts: Wang Yuwu, Feng Fan, Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie [38][39] Investment Rating - Absolute Price: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Option Strategy: Sell Put [4] Core View - The lead price is temporarily in a volatile pattern due to limited downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic mine supply is relatively tight, and the smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver mines is low. The energy storage battery sector performs prominently, and the industry is optimistic about the second half of the year. Other battery sectors also see a gradual increase in the operating rate [1][3]. Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton. The waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,315 yuan/ton, closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,406 lots, an increase of 5,076 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 51,045 lots, a decrease of 627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,315 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon closing price [1]. Inventory - On July 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 259,975 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [3]. Option Strategy - Sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. There may even be a squeeze - out situation, so it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton, closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,643 lots, an increase of 16,421 lots from the previous day, and the position was 51,182 lots, an increase of 36,029 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,150 yuan/ton and 17,255 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,260 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, smelters offered prices at par with SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead contracts 2507/2508. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. With the rise in lead prices, smelters actively offered for sale, and the mainstream production areas sold at discounts. Downstream enterprises only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in limited transactions. Some traders bought large - discount goods, and due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, some holders intended to deliver to the warehouse, and such transactions were fair [2] Inventory - On June 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 26, the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. As the third - quarter peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries approaches and lead ore supply is tight, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. The operation range for the Pb2508 contract is 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton [3] - The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the demand support from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On June 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -33.19 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, closed at 16,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,557 lots, an increase of 6,561 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 40,054 lots, a decrease of 1,403 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,925 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the afternoon closing price [2] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 140 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The lead futures price weakened during the day, downstream buyers were cautious and waited and watched, and some holders slightly increased the discount to sell. The overall spot market transaction was light [3] Inventory - On June 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 18, the LME lead inventory was 289,475 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Dragon Boat Festival, both supply and demand have slightly increased. Coupled with the overall price increase in the non - ferrous metals sector, the lead price has also rebounded. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.93/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead prices in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the lead scrap spread remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton, closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 30,240 lots, down 2,474 lots, and the position was 42,057 lots, down 1,547 lots. The night - session price rose 0.35% compared with the afternoon closing [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - The downstream maintained rigid - demand procurement. Due to the discounted recycled lead in some regions, the rigid - demand was diverted, and the trading was relatively light. On June 16, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of June 16, the LME lead inventory was 263,475 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: Maintain a neutral view, and expect the lead price to fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Lead is expected to operate within a range [1] Detailed Summary Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,570 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,541 lots, a decrease of 24,390 lots, and the open interest was 55,547 lots, an increase of 2,217 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots, and the open interest was 143,238 lots, a decrease of 1,723 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, up 2.45 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 40,316 tons, an increase of 897 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 283,150 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,425 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Other Indicators**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -891.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.74 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three contracts was -795.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 157.38 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump announced on June 4 that steel and aluminum tariffs would be raised to 50%, while tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%. The White House confirmed sending letters to trade negotiation partners to "submit plans." Media previously reported that Trump issued an ultimatum, hoping that countries would provide their "best trade plans" by Wednesday [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]