Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for global growth, projecting a slowdown to 2.4% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, with a modest recovery to 2.5% in 2026 [1][12]. Core Insights - The global economy has shown resilience in early 2025, but signs of strain from tariffs are emerging, particularly in global trade indicators [1][2]. - The front-loading of purchases in anticipation of tariffs has temporarily boosted imports, but this effect is diminishing, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth across multiple economies [3][22]. - Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs and fiscal policy, are significant risks to the economic outlook [4][52]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to slow down, with growth projected at 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and a slight recovery to 2.5% in 2026 [1][12]. - The resilience observed in the US and global economy over the past few years may be overstated, as tariff impacts are anticipated to become more pronounced [1][62]. Trade Indicators - US imports surged nearly 30% from October to March but fell sharply in April, indicating a potential decline in trade activity [2][22]. - PMIs for new export orders are below 50 for nearly 70% of major economies, signaling contraction in global trade [33]. Inflation and Central Banks - Global headline inflation has returned to 2%, with core inflation remaining above pre-pandemic levels, particularly in services [35][38]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to favor growth, with potential rate cuts later in the year as economic activity weakens [6][43]. Country-Specific Insights - The US economy is projected to grow at 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with inflation expected to rise to around 3% by year-end [64]. - Emerging markets are expected to see growth of 3.8% in 2025, with significant variations across countries [64]. Risks to the Outlook - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks of rising oil prices, which could negatively impact global growth and inflation [50]. - Uncertainties regarding the future of tariffs and fiscal policy in the US add to the economic risks, with an effective tariff rate expected to settle around 15% [52][60].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]

Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].