Morning, Carl. Yes, a rarified day where we're actually getting some data. Our October read on consumer confidence from the conference board expecting a headline number around 93 and a half.Comes in stronger, 94.6%. 94.6% will be the best since August when we were just shy of 98. There is a positive revision in the rearview mirror from 942 to 95.6%, which means it isn't sequentially higher after you take the revision into account.As for present situation one 129.3% much better than expected that follows 125 ...

Consumer Confidence Hits Seven-Month Low—Government Shutdown A ‘Key Concern,’ Survey Sayshttps://t.co/iH6kzdmqPD https://t.co/0YJ1YXMs1j ...

half a percent at levels of 115,000. All right. On that note, let's just get to Kevin Green, who joins me now for a snapshot and a look across some of the main stories.Obviously we've got Microsoft reporting earnings tomorrow, but the stock has popped this morning. As I mentioned after announcing a new pact with open AI. Talk us through what you're seeing there in the price action.KG yeah, you are seeing a really nice move to the upside when it comes to Microsoft. Now, open AI actually has completed its rec ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.04% as it awaits Friday's US CPI report for September.  The dollar garnered support from Thursday's existing US home sales report, which showed sales rose to a 7-month high.  Also, higher T-note yields on Thursday strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  In addition, weakness in the yen benefited the dollar, after the yen fell to a 1.5-week low on Thursday on concerns that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will advocate a less hawkish moneta ...

The Trump administration's AUKUS review to span costs and submarines, consumer confidence sinks, rental vacancies hit record low. What you need to know in Australia today. https://t.co/XKA1brdS0C ...

Market Sentiment - Australia's consumer confidence declined to a six-month low [1] - Renewed doubts emerged regarding future interest rate cuts due to recent inflation strength [1]

Economic Overview - The government shutdown has created a lack of official data, leaving the Federal Reserve uncertain about the labor market and economy [1] - Despite this uncertainty, financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, have reached multiple record highs [1] Labor Market Insights - The September ADP employment report indicates a softening labor market, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, following a loss of 3,000 in August [4] - This marks the first occurrence of back-to-back job losses in the private sector since the pandemic's initial aftermath in 2020 [4] - The leisure and hospitality sector was notably affected, losing 19,000 jobs, which accounted for over 50% of the total job loss [5] - Job openings increased slightly in August to 7.227 million, surpassing expectations, but the job openings-to-unemployed-workers ratio remains below 1.0 for the second consecutive month [6][7] - Other labor metrics, including hire and quit rates, are trending downward, with the hire rate at its lowest since April 2020 [8] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell for the second month in a row, dropping 3.2 points to 94.2, below the forecast of 96.0 [9] - This decline reflects worsening views on current job availability and business conditions, although there is some optimism regarding future income [10] Market Performance - The S&P 500 achieved a six-day winning streak, closing the week with a 1.1% gain, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust also rose by 1.1% [11] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.13%, and the 2-year note finished at 3.58% [11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in December and 2026 [12] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week will feature key indicators such as trade balance figures and weekly unemployment claims, with the September BLS employment report pending due to the government shutdown [13]

Market Timing and Historical Context - The difficulty of timing the market is highlighted, emphasizing the need to exit and re-enter at the right times, which is challenging [1] - Historical stock market crashes illustrate the unpredictability of stocks in the near term, making market timing a risky endeavor [2] - The S&P 500 index's performance during the dot-com bubble and subsequent crash serves as a reminder of the potential for significant losses [3][4] Labor Market Insights - Private sector job losses were reported, with a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, primarily in small and mid-sized businesses [9] - Hiring intentions have weakened, with the lowest job addition plans for September since 2011, indicating a cooling labor market [10] - Job openings increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, suggesting ongoing demand for labor despite a cooling market [11] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has decreased, with a notable drop in perceptions of job availability, reflecting a cooling labor market [14][15] - Despite weak consumer sentiment, consumer spending data remains strong, indicating a disconnect between sentiment and actual spending behavior [24] Economic Growth and Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains positive, driven by expectations of earnings growth [21] - While demand for goods and services is still positive, economic growth has normalized from previous high levels [23] - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to companies adjusting cost structures and achieving positive operating leverage [25]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of following financial advice during market fluctuations, emphasizing that investors may regret not adhering to their adviser's guidance if the market continues to rise [1][2] - It highlights the current market conditions, noting that major indexes like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have reached new highs, indicating a strong market performance [6] - The article suggests that despite concerns about a potential market bubble driven by AI, historical trends indicate that the stock market is likely to continue its upward trajectory over time [6][11] Group 2 - The financial situation of the individual discussed includes a mix of assets such as a traditional IRA, 403(b), and home equity, with a focus on managing withdrawals and maintaining a sustainable retirement income [5][10] - The article presents a "bond-tent strategy," which involves adjusting bond allocations in relation to retirement timing to mitigate risks while ensuring a stable income [8] - It mentions the potential growth of the 403(b) over the next seven years, projecting a value of up to $1.5 million with a 7% average return, highlighting the importance of long-term investment strategies [9][10]

Business Performance - The company is not seeing a comeback in the industry yet, but also not seeing a tailing off [1] - Cash buyers are strong, contributing to good performance in the marketplace for these types of boats [2] - The company introduced 11 new boats this year, driving innovation and attracting customers [3] - Value boats saw a slight drop-off in sales, but this was offset by increased sales of upper-end boats, with sales reaching up to 45-foot boats priced at $2 million [6] Tariffs Impact - Tariffs have a limited impact on the company, affecting sub-tiers and suppliers by approximately 150 to 300 basis points, equivalent to a 15% to 3% price increase [4] - The company is working to offset the price increase caused by tariffs [4] Market Trends and Future Strategy - The company aims to cater to consumer demand by developing bigger, longer, and more feature-rich boats [8] - The company emphasizes responsible boating, providing technology to control wave size and working with the WSIA to promote responsible boat usage on lakes [10][11] - The company wants to see more consumer confidence through economic policy [13]