Canadian consumer confidence climbed to its highest level since US President Donald Trump first threatened 25% tariffs on the country’s goods in late 2024 https://t.co/nSFLm8VYdq ...

Group 1 - Retail order volumes increased by about 6 percent year over year during the holiday season, while post-holiday return volumes rose approximately 11 percent from 2024, indicating a significant rise in returns compared to sales growth [1][2] - The concept of "provisional purchasing" has emerged, driven by a downturn in consumer confidence, which fell to a 12-year low in January, affecting shoppers' willingness to keep purchases [2][3] - Consumer sentiment has deteriorated, with the Conference Board's present situation index components showing declines in perceptions of employment and business conditions, leading to the lowest confidence levels since May 2014 [3][4] Group 2 - The current economic climate has made returns a critical factor in consumer budgeting, as shoppers are increasingly selective about their purchases [4][5] - Retailers face risks if their return processes are confusing or rigid, as this could lead to losing customers entirely; brands that provide personalized service during returns are more likely to foster customer loyalty [5] - Some retailers are adapting by offering flexible and cost-sensitive return options, such as boxless returns, which can reduce processing expenses by 15 percent to 20 percent [5]

We're speaking with the Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who is retiring at the end of this month. So this is sort of your HR exit interview. Mike, it's always good to see you.I want to ask you, as you travel around your district for the past year, what's the mood like among companies and consumers. We've seen the surveys show that people are getting very, very pessimistic. - Well, I'd say it runs in two ways.So, first of all, what has been true throughout the last year is a tremendous amount of resili ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant focus on the chocolate category, which has shown resilience despite price volatility in 2025 [6][9] - Cocoa prices have recently declined unexpectedly, which may lead to short-term pressures for the industry [8][9] - The company aims to increase margins in the chocolate business significantly by 2027 due to improved cocoa pricing [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The chocolate strategy has been effective, with successful execution in major markets like India, Brazil, and Australia, while adjustments are needed in northern European markets due to higher elasticity [6][7] - The company plans to invest more in brand marketing and innovation, particularly with successful collaborations like Biscoff [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Emerging markets have shown strong momentum, with expectations for continued growth in high single digits, while developed markets are expected to see declines in the low to mid-single digits [36][38] - The North American market is facing challenges, with consumer confidence at historic lows and a decline in the biscuit category [25][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on brand investments and innovation to drive volume growth, particularly in North America and Europe [29][30] - There is a strategic emphasis on adapting to consumer behavior changes, with a focus on value-seeking consumers [25][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the 2026 guidance, highlighting the need for flexibility due to recent cocoa price dynamics [12][13] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in volume and revenue throughout 2026, with a focus on maintaining pricing strategies [22][24] Other Important Information - The company is investing in cocoa-growing regions outside of West Africa to diversify supply and reduce risks associated with crop diseases [69][70] - There is an ongoing exploration of lab-grown cocoa as a sustainable alternative, which may gain regulatory approval in the future [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the chocolate strategy given cocoa price changes? - Management noted that the chocolate category has shown resilience and that adjustments will be made to pricing strategies in response to cocoa price fluctuations [6][7] Question: How does the company plan to address cost phasing in 2026? - The company will face a one-time inventory adjustment impacting costs, with expectations for sequential improvements in volume and revenue throughout the year [22][24] Question: What is the strategy for North America amidst weak volume trends? - Management highlighted the need for increased investments to drive consumer awareness and adapt to changing shopping behaviors, focusing on value and promotions [25][28] Question: How will emerging markets perform in 2026? - Emerging markets are expected to continue growing, with Brazil and Mexico showing strong performance, while Argentina's economic issues are impacting overall regional results [44][45] Question: What are the expectations for profitability recovery in European chocolate? - The company aims to return to pre-2025 profitability levels by investing in brand marketing and adjusting pricing strategies as cocoa prices stabilize [60][61]

>> WE WERE SEEING THE AI JITTERS BACK IN THE MARKET. >> THE RISK ATMOSPHERE IS ELEVATED. >> THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE HAVE AND HAVE-NOTS ARE ALMOST UNBELIEVABLE.>> PEOPLE SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABSOLUTE INCREASE IN MARKET CAPITALIZATION. THE CONCERN SHOULD BE THE CAP -- THE CONCENTRATION. >> EARNINGS GROWTH IS THE LAST ENGINE OF RETURN AND THAT ENGINE IS STILL GOING.>> THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE. JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING, GOOD MORNING. FOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, BLOOMB ...

To get a sense of Chinese consumer confidence, visit Beijing toy seller Gaan. For the year of the horse, this frowning horse is selling out. A factory worker had mistakenly sewn the plushy smile upside down, creating a runaway hit here known as the crying horse. >> Nowadays, there's so much stress in our society. She says the crying horse reflects how people feel inside. The popularity of this horse is just one indication of a gloom in Chinese society that appears to be building as the economy slows down an ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. consumer confidence has sharply declined, reaching its lowest level since 2014, driven by concerns over personal finances and the overall economy [1][2]. Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board reported a significant drop in the consumer confidence index, which fell by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, with all five components of the index deteriorating [2]. - Consumers' assessment of current economic conditions decreased by 9.9 points to 113.7 [2]. Economic Expectations - Short-term expectations regarding income, business conditions, and the job market fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, marking the 12th consecutive month below the 80 threshold, often seen as a recession warning [3]. Factors Affecting Sentiment - Survey respondents highlighted inflation pressures, particularly from rising gas and grocery prices, as well as concerns related to tariffs, trade, politics, jobs, and health insurance [4]. - The perception of job availability has worsened among consumers during the month [4]. Job Market Insights - The U.S. economy added only 584,000 jobs in 2025, significantly lower than the over 2 million jobs added in 2024, marking the weakest job growth year outside a recession since 2003 [5]. Economic Growth Dynamics - Despite declining consumer confidence and hiring, the U.S. economy continues to expand, primarily driven by strong consumer spending, particularly from wealthier individuals [6]. Consumer Spending Distribution - Approximately 59% of consumer spending is now attributed to the top 20% of income earners, a near-record high, while only 41% comes from the bottom 80%, a record low [7]. Investment Opportunities in ETFs - In light of recession fears and weakening consumer confidence, several exchange-traded fund (ETF) areas are highlighted for potential investment [8]. Defensive Sectors - Historically, the consumer staples sector tends to outperform during periods of low confidence, as these goods are non-cyclical. Utilities and healthcare are also considered recession-resilient sectors [9]. - Notable ETFs in the defensive segment include State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP), State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV), and State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) [10]. Quality Stocks - Quality stocks, characterized by strong balance sheets and stable earnings growth, tend to perform well during market volatility. Examples include BetaShares S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (QUS) and Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ) [11]. Dividend ETFs - High-income ETFs are seen as a safe haven in volatile markets, with a focus on dividend yields. The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), yielding 2.36% annually, is highlighted as a viable option [13].

What we're seeing is uh I would say consumer confidence isn't matching the behavior that we're seeing. Meaning consumer confidence is low, but we're seeing still really good uh shopping behavior out of every income cohort and every age cohort. Um and we're really seeing great attach meaning people are ordering food with their beverage.So we've not seen a tradeoff in their experiences. And I think this really speaks to great customer service, great personalization that then makes the experience worth the pri ...

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY, THE TWO FED GOVERNORS APPOINTED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP DISAGREED WITH THE MOVE MIRRORING TRUMP'S CALL TO LOWER RATES IN THEIR DECENT. LET'S BRING IN FORMER TREASURY OFFICIAL AND MORNING JOE ECONOMIC ANALYST STEVE RATNER WHO HAS CHARTS ON YESTERDAY'S FED DECISION. FIRST UP, EXPLAIN THE PAUSE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US, STEVE.YEAH, AS YOU SAID MECA, THE FED HAS BEEN REDUCING RATES PRETTY STUDILY SINCE JULY WHEN THEY PEAKED AT ABOUT ALMOST 5 .5 % AND THEY'VE GONE DOWN, DOWN, ...

Economic Assessment - The U.S. economy has been given a "B-minus" grade by economist Justin Wolfers, indicating concerns over inconsistent trade policies and a significant decline in consumer morale [1][2] - Wolfers suggests that while the economy is "not terrible," the B-minus rating reflects a generous view amidst "grade inflation" in economic discourse [2] Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate has "drifted up" over the past year, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's targets, impacting household budgets [3] - The current budget deficit is characterized as "extremely large," which may be excessive for the current stage of the business cycle [3] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence is reported to be near an "all-time low," indicating a disconnect between economic growth figures and the reality of rising costs and job security [5][6] - The prevailing sentiment among consumers is described as "miserable," driven by economic pressures despite positive headline growth [6] Market Performance - Major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 have shown year-to-date increases of 1.74%, 1.31%, and 3.24%, respectively [7]