#报告 TS Lombard：一个巨大的“资金球”——中国正将股市作为提振消费的手段。 https://t.co/HMKBldLJl1None (@None):None ...

Studies suggest moderate consumption is harmless. It may even be beneficial https://t.co/LLEA512VvT ...

Economic Growth & Inflation - Economists and policymakers view moderate inflation as beneficial for driving economic growth [1] - Moderate inflation helps in preventing deflation [1] Impact on Consumption & Savings - Moderate inflation has an impact on consumption and savings [1]

The big news this week, corporate in corporate China, right. You remember Starbucks and the issues they're having there with their foreign units. In fact, when you look at the opposite, some of the success stories, Lululemon, when you look at their specific China unit and the amount of growth they've seen throughout the year is expected into the next few years.So from about early 2020 to $400 million into the expected close to 2 billion off the China business, that's about a5x growth just over five years. R ...

Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating potential challenges in the broader markets and economic outlook [1] - There is a split in expectations regarding job growth, with some anticipating higher growth while others foresee lower growth, reflecting a mixed sentiment among consumers [3] Consumer Behavior - Real personal disposable income is declining at an annual rate of approximately 1%, yet consumer spending remains stable, likely supported by equity gains and home appreciation [4] - Consumers are currently relying heavily on the wealth effect to maintain their consumption patterns, despite underlying economic stress [4][5] - There are indications that consumers may be growing weary of spending, which could impact future consumption patterns [7] Market Sentiment - The investment community remains cautious, with widening outcomes in economic forecasts, particularly regarding the impact of AI on productivity and labor markets [9][10] - The expectation is for a slowing economy with decent nominal growth, potentially leading to a resurgence in productivity driven by AI in the coming years [11] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its quantitative tightening through the end of the year, as concerns about the balance sheet size persist among committee members [13][14] - There is ongoing debate about whether the Fed will adjust its inflation target from 2% to 3%, reflecting broader discussions on monetary policy [12]

Let's get back to the broader markets and the outlook for the economy after consumer confidence this month did fall to the lowest level since April. Joining us this morning is Medlife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Mattis. Been watching a lot of this stuff closely.Drew, good to see you again. >> Good to good to be here. So, Conference Board is is kind of instructive and it it does fit a little bit with the narrative being built at Amazon and GM and Paramount uh where headcount is either ...

Health & Consumption - Studies suggest moderate consumption is harmless [1] - Moderate consumption may even be beneficial [1]

Market Environment - The current credit market is very active, with record pipelines and earnings across the board, indicating a strong cycle for credit despite some expected hiccups [2][4]. - The uncertainty that previously affected the market, such as tax policy and tariffs, has largely been resolved, allowing for increased business activity including M&A and IPOs [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The market is believed to be in the earlier innings of a positive cycle, with expectations of continued growth into 2026, barring any significant geopolitical events [5]. - There is a caution regarding Federal Reserve policy, suggesting that while some rate cuts may be necessary, the idea of multiple significant cuts is not supported [6][10]. Investor Behavior - A generational divide exists in investment perspectives, with older investors focusing on performance while younger investors prioritize interaction through social apps and do not view performance as a primary concern [11][12]. - The blending of prediction markets with investing is seen as problematic, emphasizing the need for education on the differences between investing and gambling [13].

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year, with consumption becoming the primary driver of economic growth [1][4][11] Economic Growth Performance - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 are 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively, indicating a gradual decline [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, with a notable increase to 56.6% in the third quarter [4][5] Consumption as Growth Driver - Consumption has become the main driver of economic growth, especially in the context of low investment and uncertain foreign trade [4][5] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth has increased significantly over the past three years, with 2022 at 32.8%, 2023 at 82.5%, and 2024 at 44.5% [4] Challenges in Consumption Growth - Despite being the main growth driver, consumption faces challenges, including a decline in retail sales growth and low CPI growth rates [7][8] - Factors affecting consumption include a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market, increased employment pressure, and competition leading to price reductions [7][8] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement macroeconomic policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real estate market [9][10] - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is feasible, but there is a need to address the gap between macro statistics and micro perceptions [11][12] Long-term Economic Projections - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the potential GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3%, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate sector and reforming social welfare systems [13][14]

Macro Economy - Consumption in China remains weak [1] - Efforts to spur spending will feature prominently in the next five-year plan [1]