Interest Rate Policy - Rate cuts are off the table, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is preparing markets for a potential rate hike in 2026 [1] Market Impact - The policy shift has implications for mortgages and the housing market [1] - The policy shift has implications for Australia's economic outlook [1]

Inflation & Labor Market - The FOMC unanimously acknowledges that inflation is excessively high and requires reduction, while also recognizing the softening labor market and associated risks [1] - Persistent tension exists between the dual mandates, influencing decision-making processes [2] FOMC Discussions & Decisions - Discussions within the FOMC are thorough and respectful, despite differing viewpoints [3] - A decision was reached with broad support (9 out of 12), indicating a less unified consensus compared to typical situations [3] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The effects of the previous 75 basis points rate cut are yet to be fully realized [4] - The committee is positioned to observe the economy's evolution before making further decisions [4] Data Assessment - Caution is advised when assessing household survey data due to technical issues in data collection, potentially leading to distortions [5][6] - Data collected in October and half of November may be unreliable due to disruptions in data collection [6]

Economic Outlook - The global economic situation, particularly the actions of America and China, will continue to negatively impact the European economy [1] - By 2026, this impact will no longer be unexpected [1]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.60%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.62%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.70% [1] - Stock indexes are reaching 1.5-week highs, driven by strength in semiconductor stocks [1] Economic Indicators - Optimism about a potential Fed rate cut is contributing to the positive market sentiment ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday [2] - The chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting has increased to 80% from 30% last week [2][6] - Weekly jobless claims fell to a 7-month low of 216,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected [4] - September capital goods new orders rose by +0.9% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.3% [5] Mortgage Applications - US MBA mortgage applications increased by +0.2% in the week ended November 21, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising by +7.6% [4]

Consumer Confidence - US consumer confidence experienced the largest decline in seven months in November [1] - The decline is attributed to increasing concerns regarding the labor market outlook and the overall economy [1]

Job Market Outlook - The job market for the class of 2026 is expected to be the worst in 5 years [1] - More than 50% of employers surveyed rate the job market as poor or fair [1] - The current pessimistic outlook is the most significant since the beginning of the pandemic [1] Factors Contributing to the Pessimistic Outlook - A cooling job market is a primary reason for the negative forecast [1] - Companies are implementing job cuts [2] - Economic uncertainty is causing companies to be more cautious with hiring [2] - Companies are prioritizing experienced recruits over new college graduates [2] - College seniors are facing increased competition from laid-off junior workers [2]

Economic Outlook - Greek Prime Minister is optimistic about Greece's economic outlook over the next 18 months [1] - Southern Europe is outperforming traditional economic powerhouses [1]

Economic Outlook - Singapore's economic growth outlook for the current year roughly doubled to approximately 4% [1] - The growth is attributed to a better-than-expected third quarter [1] - A slowdown in economic activity is anticipated for the coming year [1] Global Impact - US tariffs are expected to negatively impact the global economy, contributing to the projected slowdown [1]

Market Overview - Early indicators suggest Wall Street may open lower, with Dow futures down 223 points, S&P 500 futures down 53.75 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 316.75 points [1] - Major U.S. averages ended lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq dropping 536.10 points (2.3%) to 22,870.36, S&P 500 down 113.43 points (1.7%) to 6,737.49, and Dow down 797.60 points (1.7%) to 47,457.22 [2] Economic Data Releases - The PPI-Final Demand for October is expected to increase by 0.3% [2] - The Commerce Department's Business Inventories for September is anticipated to rise by 0.2% [3] - The Energy Information Administration's Natural Gas Report will show a prior week increase of 33 billion cubic feet in gas stock [3] International Market Performance - Asian markets finished lower, with China's Shanghai Composite down 0.97% to 3,990.49, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.85% to 26,572.46, and Japan's Nikkei down 1.77% to 50,376.53 [5] - Australian markets reached a four-month low, with the S&P/ASX 200 down 1.36% to 8,634.50 [6] - European shares are also trading lower, with France's CAC 40 down 117.75 points (1.43%), Germany's DAX down 401.20 points (1.67%), and the U.K. FTSE 100 down 170.59 points (1.74%) [6][7]

Economic Outlook - The recent earnings season showed the fewest mentions of economic slowdown since 2007, indicating a disconnect between corporate leadership and economic realities [2] - Despite corporate optimism, 71% of Americans expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months, one of the highest expectations recorded [3] Class Dynamics - The middle class is perceived to be shrinking, with arguments suggesting this is due to overall economic improvement rather than decline [3] - The upper class has increased significantly, from 5% in 1967 to 34% currently, highlighting a shift in economic distribution [4]