Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a decline after a strong trading session on Friday, with major indexes showing losses: Dow -207 points (-0.43%), S&P 500 -46 points (-0.67%), Nasdaq -239 points (-0.94%), and Russell 2000 -26 points (-1.06%) [1] Economic Indicators - The week is not characterized as a "Jobs Week" due to delays from a government shutdown, with private-sector payrolls from ADP expected on Wednesday, following a positive month in October (+42K) [2] - Final November S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing results are anticipated, with S&P expected around the 50-level and ISM having not reached 50 since February, falling to 48.7% last month [6] Holiday Shopping Trends - Cyber Monday is projected to attract 73.9 million online shoppers, following Black Friday's 130.4 million and Small-Business Saturday's +67 million customers, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite economic concerns [3] - Adobe forecasts online shopping to reach $11.8 billion on Cyber Monday, a +9.1% increase from the previous year, while Mastercard reported Black Friday online sales up +10.4% [4] Upcoming Economic Reports - Delayed economic reports will be released this week, including September Imports & Exports on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday [7] - Key earnings reports from retailers such as Macy's, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and American Eagle are expected, along with quarterly earnings from CrowdStrike and Salesforce [8]

Core Insights - The first week of the year features a comprehensive schedule of earnings reports and economic data [1] Earnings Reports - A variety of companies are expected to release their earnings, providing insights into their financial performance and market conditions [1] Economic Data - Key economic indicators will be released, which may influence market trends and investor sentiment [1]

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]

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Core Insights - Investors will have a break next week due to the market closure on November 27 for Thanksgiving, allowing time for assessment and reflection after a challenging week for Wall Street [2] - Despite the end of the U.S. government shutdown, some key economic reports are still being canceled due to insufficient survey data, impacting market expectations [3] Earnings Reports - Several companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, including Alibaba Group (BABA), Dell (DELL), Deere & Company (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) [4] - Specific earnings highlights include: - Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Zoom Communications (ZM), Symbotic (SYM) [5] - Tuesday: Alibaba, Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies, Best Buy (BBY), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP (HPQ), DICK'S Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker (SJM), and NIO (NIO) [5] - Wednesday: Deere, Li Auto (LI) [5] - Thursday: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) [6] - Friday: Frontline Plc (FRO), Buckle, Inc. (BKE) [6]

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Market Overview - Futures are experiencing pressure, but there was some optimism from dip buying on Friday, indicating less uncertainty in the market [1] - The focus for the week is on Nvidia's earnings report, which is expected to impact many stocks driving the market [2][6] Economic Data and Fed Influence - The CME Fed watch tool indicates a decrease in the probability of a 25 basis point cut from 90% to 42.9%, reflecting market uncertainty influenced by Fed speakers [4] - Upcoming economic data, including jobs data and Fed minutes, will be crucial for market sentiment [3][4][10] Consumer Insights - Walmart's earnings report is anticipated to provide significant insights into the strength of the US consumer, alongside other retailers like Home Depot and TJX [6][7] - Recent Bank of America data has already provided a glimpse into consumer behavior, which will be further clarified by upcoming earnings [6][7] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting delayed economic data, including construction spending, factory orders, and international trade, which are expected to be released this week [9][12] - The consensus expectations for the September jobs report are 50,000 jobs added and a 4.3% unemployment rate, which would indicate a strong economy if met [13]

Government & Policy - US government reopens after a 43-day shutdown following President Trump signing a funding bill [1] - Economic data missed due to the shutdown, including the October CPI and jobs report, may never be released [1] - Supreme Court to hear oral arguments on January 21st regarding President Trump's authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] Technology & AI - Alibaba is reportedly preparing to overhaul its flagship AI apps to be more like OpenAI's ChatGPT, aiming for fully functioning AI agents [2] Economy & Finance - US is ending the production of the penny after more than 230 years [2]

Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

So, what should you really be paying attention to. Joining us now with more is Chris Krueger. He is managing director of the Washington Research Group at TD Cowan.Always, always a must readad. So, Chris, you are dialed in as much as anybody. You're down there.Is this government shutdown going to end by the end of the week. >> Yes. Uh, it might even end probably ends tomorrow night.U, the House Rules Committee is is meeting uh in a couple hours. Uh the votes should start tomorrow around 400 p. m.Uh once the ...