Market Concerns & Tariff Impact - The primary concern revolves around the ultimate impact of tariff uncertainty on economic growth, both domestically and internationally [2][3][4] - Tariffs are projected to be significantly higher than last year's 25%, potentially reaching high single digits or even higher across the economy [3] - International trade may suffer as slower corporate earnings growth occurs due to decreased demand caused by tariffs [4] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be felt, suggesting potential future headwinds for corporations [5] Economic Outlook & Inflation - The economy is currently holding up well, as evidenced by the labor market and inflation data [6][7] - Inflation numbers are expected to rise in the July and August readings, with acceleration later in the year [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold at the July meeting and potentially the following meeting due to uncertainty about inflation [7] Corporate Earnings - Second-quarter earnings are expected to be favorable, with anticipated growth of only 2% to 3% [8] - Third-quarter reports are expected to reveal more concerns from companies regarding coping with tariffs [8] Cryptocurrency - Crypto and Bitcoin are viewed as a play on inflation and the dollar, functioning as a currency [9] - They can serve as a hedge against inflation and dollar uncertainty, similar to gold, but lack cash flow [10] - Investing in companies like Coinbase is suggested, as they can profit regardless of Bitcoin's price fluctuations [11]

Trade & Tariff Policy - The administration suggests that most trading partners could face tariff rates between 15% and 20% [1] - The country faces an urgent national emergency due to massive trade deficits, cumulatively around $18 trillion over several decades, representing a transfer of wealth, factories, and jobs abroad [2] - The US has collected approximately $100 billion in tariffs, marking a record for a single fiscal year [4] - The US is collecting $18 billion in tariffs from China alone on fentanyl [5] - A 35% tariff threat is being considered for Canada, but it is not yet applied under the USMCA agreement [7][8] - The administration is considering a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, possibly with a delay of over a year to allow supply chains to reorient [12] - Section 232 tariffs aim to strengthen the defense, manufacturing, and health industrial bases [13] Economic Impact & Fiscal Policy - The administration believes that combined with tariff revenues, the "big, beautiful bill" will turn a $2 to $3 trillion deficit into a $2 to $3 trillion surplus [16] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a 18% rate of economic growth, which the administration considers too low [18] - Increasing the growth rate by 1% could raise a couple of trillion dollars, potentially leading to neutrality in the debt [19] - A 50 basis point increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) could lead to a 025% to 05% reduction in GDP growth, resulting in 500000 to 750000 fewer jobs [22][23] - A half-point increase on short-term debt could add a couple of hundred billion dollars to the debt over ten years [24] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - There is an argument that the Federal Reserve is at least 50 basis points above where it should be, suggesting a need for lower rates [22] - The bond market may perceive Jerome Powell as ineffective due to his actions [27] - The Federal Reserve (FED) chair should have taken action to address fiscal policy concerns, similar to William McChesney Martin's approach during the Vietnam War [31][32]

8 July 2025 | 11:02PM HKT China: Reported nationwide childbirth subsidy – potentially a modest boost to H2 growth Bottom line: Recent media reports suggest that the Chinese government will launch a nationwide childbirth subsidy program soon (RMB 3,600 per year for each child until they turn three years old), although this has yet to be officially announced. In our view, the subsidy program reflects China's new policy thinking and long-term planning to counteract cyclical and structural growth headwinds. Bas ...

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The current US effective tariff rate stands at 15%, increasing to 17% after recent trade agreements, significantly higher than the pre-administration level of 2% or less [9] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as taxes on American businesses and consumers, ultimately leading to higher prices and reduced spending [14][17] - The US trade policy is causing a reshaping of global supply chains, trade relationships, and geopolitical dynamics [11] - There is concern that the US President's approach to trade deals lacks binding commitment and can be unilaterally altered, making it difficult for other countries to offer meaningful concessions [6][7] Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to negatively impact economic growth and employment in the latter half of the year [17][18] - Consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs through increased costs, as exemplified by unexpected tariff charges on imported goods [15][16] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The US President is expected to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially compromising the Fed's independence and its broader economic objectives [21][22]

As Republicans work to pass President Trump's mega bill in the House, our next guest has spoken out against it, calling it a quote nightmare for working families. Joining us right now is Democratic governor of Maryland, West Moore in the House at the table. Good morning to you, sir. Good morning.This thing seems like a fa plea. I mean, Hakeim Jeff is speaking. We'll see how long he can keep that going.Uh, but when he stops, it sounds like this is going to happen. Uh, you have been very critical of it. In so ...

It is time for money power politics. The analysis by the nonpartisan CBO was crystal clear. Trump's spending mega bill will balloon the US deficit by $3.3% trillion and cut health care for millions.But White House officials are working overtime to convince Americans that it'll do the exact opposite. Watch this. This bill protects Medicaid, as I laid out for you, for those who truly deserve this program.the needy, pregnant women, um children, um sick Americans who physically cannot work. This bill strengthen ...

Economic Outlook - Despite the trade truce, economic numbers appear soft, necessitating a broader perspective [1] - Macro policy improvements in September of last year, along with front-loaded activity in Q1, led to solid data in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year [2] - The underlying economic momentum is moderating due to trade tariff issues with the US and increasing external uncertainty [2][3] - The baseline expectation is for sequential growth of the Chinese economy to slow from approximately 66% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 to around 35% in Q2, and further to 3% in Q3 [3] - PMI numbers align with expectations of moderating economic momentum [4] Sector Performance - Diverging trends exist across different sectors, with China's exports to the US down 40% in April and May [5] - Sectors receiving policy support, such as training subsidies and equipment upgrades, are performing well [6] - The housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy and has not yet bottomed out [6] - Consumer sentiment outside of policy support areas remains at a historical low [7] Policy Implications - Domestic and consumption support are crucial for policy focus this year [7] - Subsidies for consumer durables and autos have shown some impact, but their effect will fade by year-end [7] - Further policy support, particularly for services consumption, is needed [8]

Welcome back. The Senate in the middle of a marathon session to pass President Trump's tax and spending mega bill, engaging in a lengthy voter, as it's known, where lawmakers can pitch amendments. If passed, then it heads back to the House before reaching the president's desk.Joining us now is National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. It's great to have you, Director Hasset. You think it it can really pass before this July 4th deadline.Yeah, I think we're I think we're still on track uh to meet the p ...

It's very important. If we don't have it, there's a 68% tax increase. If we don't have it, you know, the debt ceiling extension is very important.They gave a debt ceiling. The Republicans gave a debt ceiling because of the importance of doing it. They did that for the good of the country and Republicans voted for that.[Music] We're cutting 1.7%. Let's see. We're cutting Yeah.1.7% trillion. Think of it. I think I just saw the number a little while ago.$1.7% trillion. But we can grow our country so much more ...

[Music] Now for today's power player segment. Time is running out for senators to reach a deal on President Trump's tax plan. The president wants the big beautiful bill on his desk before July 4th.As the deadline closes in, it's still not clear to markets what the bill's economic impact will be. The White House Council of Economic Adviserss estimates growth from the new tax plan could slash up to $2.3% trillion from the deficit. But the Congressional Budget Office found the mega bill would add $2.4% trillio ...