Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy has created a tense atmosphere, impacting the tone of Ukraine peace talks [1] - Amazon's AWS experienced an outage that disrupted parts of the internet, highlighting vulnerabilities in cloud services [1] - Apple is approaching a record valuation of $4 trillion, driven by strong iPhone sales [1] Group 2 - China's economy has reported its slowest growth in a year, coinciding with renewed trade tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group remains optimistic about its iron ore sales despite challenges posed by China's ban on local steelmakers purchasing from the company, indicating a resilient demand for its key commodity this year [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - BHP reported a record amount of iron ore mined over the last three months, with full-year production guidance unchanged at 258 million to 269 million tonnes [2][6]. - Sales figures have remained consistent with the previous year, highlighted by a 5% increase in sales of higher-value lump iron ore [6]. - Total copper production increased by 4% to 494,000 tonnes, with full-year guidance also remaining at two million tonnes [6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the news of the China iron ore boycott, BHP's stock initially dropped below $42 but has since recovered, climbing by 5.2% in the last trading week [4][5]. - Investors appear to respond positively to BHP's stance on the situation with China, interpreting the company's comments as a sign of confidence [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - BHP's chief, Mike Henry, noted that while a deceleration in growth is expected in the second half of 2025, China's GDP growth is still projected at 5% for the year [4]. - Overall macroeconomic signals for commodity demand are described as resilient, with global growth forecasts improving [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth in the third quarter slowed to 4.8%, the weakest pace in a year, due to a prolonged property slump and trade tensions, prompting calls for more stimulus to support economic momentum [1]. Economic Data Summary - Q3 GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts and down from 5.2% in Q2 [5] - Q3 GDP growth was 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, exceeding the forecast of 0.8% and slightly up from a revised 1.0% in Q2 [5] - September industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 5.0% and up from 5.2% in August [5] - September retail sales rose by 3.0% year-on-year, in line with forecasts but down from 3.4% in August [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, below the forecast of a 0.1% increase, and down from a 0.5% increase from January to August [5] - Property investment from January to September fell by 13.9% year-on-year, worsening from a 12.9% decline from January to August [5] Analyst Commentary Summary - Analysts suggest that while the GDP number is decent, domestic activity remains weak, indicating a need for further measures to boost demand [2][3] - There is an expectation that Beijing will meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%, with little need for broad fiscal stimulus at this time [2] - Targeted additional fiscal stimulus is anticipated, with the Q3 GDP number possibly being the low point in the current cycle [4]

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher as investors awaited economic data from China [1] - Analysts forecast China's GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in Q3 from 5.2% in Q2 [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 1.6% and the Topix increased by 1.43% at the open [1] Group 2 - South Korea's Kospi gained 0.36% after reaching a record high for three consecutive days [2] - The small-cap Kosdaq climbed 1.13% [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures were higher at 25,863 compared to the previous close of 25,247.1 [2] - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 started the day 0.1% lower [2]

Economic Growth & AI Impact - US economic growth is slowing, decreasing from 25% in 2024 to under 2% [1][2] - AI's contribution to economic growth has increased significantly, rising from approximately 10% to 31% [2] - The actual economic growth filtering down to ordinary Americans is projected to drop to 11% in the first half of 2025 [2] Wage Disparity & Income Inequality - Wage growth for the bottom quartile is lagging behind the top quartile, with the bottom seeing approximately 35% annual growth compared to over 55% for the top [3][4] - Rising income inequality is observed, reversing the trend from 2016 where wages for the bottom quartile were increasing faster [3][4] Stock Market & Wealth Distribution - The stock market has experienced extraordinary growth, with increases of 15% or more in five out of the last six years [5] - The top 20% of Americans have increased their consumption by 50% since the beginning of 2020, while other income groups have only increased by about 25%, matching inflation [6][7] - The top 10% of Americans account for 50% of all consumption in the US [7] Job Market Trends - The job market is showing signs of roughness despite overall economic expansion, influenced by tariffs, economic uncertainty, and AI [8][9] - Small businesses are losing jobs, while large companies are responsible for virtually all job creation in the last four months [10] - Job creation is concentrated in leisure, hospitality, education, and health sectors, while other sectors like finance and IT are experiencing job losses [11][12] Unemployment & Economic Sentiment - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is rising, with over a quarter of the unemployed now considered long-term unemployed, reaching the highest percentage since 2016 [13] - A significant percentage of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, reflecting the struggles of average, everyday Americans [14]

Core Viewpoint - Ongoing discussions aim to lower tariffs, which could positively impact the economy [1] Group 1 - Sanjay Malhotra indicated that negotiations are currently taking place to reduce tariffs [1] - Successful tariff reductions are expected to provide a boost to economic growth [1]

Economic Outlook - The trade tensions between the United States and China pose a significant risk to Thailand's economic growth, with the central bank's deputy governor indicating limited room for further rate cuts [1][2] - The Bank of Thailand expects growth rates of 2.2% for the current year and 1.8% in 2026, which are below the potential growth rate of 2.7% [3] Monetary Policy - Despite sluggish economic growth, the central bank decided to maintain the key interest rate at 1.5%, which is historically low, rather than implementing cuts [4] - The deputy governor noted that lending rates have only dipped below this level three times in history, indicating limited maneuverability in monetary policy [4] Economic Constraints - The central bank is focusing on financial measures, such as debt restructuring schemes and loan guarantees for households and SMEs, rather than solely relying on funding conditions [5] - Recent data showed negative inflation for six consecutive months, driven by lower energy and food prices, but this does not necessitate a change in the central bank's inflation target of 1-3% [6]

Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs reported adjusted EPS of $12.25 for Q3 2025, exceeding the analyst estimate of $11.00, with net revenue of $15.18 billion, surpassing the estimated $14.10 billion [2][10] - The firm's provision for credit losses was lower than expected at $339 million, compared to an estimate of $369 million [2] - Albertsons reported adjusted EPS of $0.44 for Q2 2025, outperforming the estimated $0.40, with revenue reaching $18.915 billion against an estimate of $18.886 billion [4][10] - Goldman Sachs declared a dividend of $4 per share and achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% with net income of $4.1 billion [3] Market Developments - The write-off of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments was revoked, providing clarity and potential relief for impacted bondholders [6][10] - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their target prices for Broadcom Inc., indicating positive sentiment for the semiconductor company [8] Geopolitical Events - China imposed sanctions on South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, escalating trade tensions and prohibiting Chinese entities from engaging with Hanwha's U.S.-linked units [5][10] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for a resilient economy, urging the full utilization of policy resources and counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth [7][10]

Fiscal Policy - Indonesia's budget-deficit cap, a cornerstone of its fiscal policy for decades, may now impede economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - A key technocrat who played a role in rebuilding Indonesia's economy post-Asian financial crisis expresses concern [1]

Government Employment & Economic Perspective - Government should focus on core functions like infrastructure, healthcare, and education, rather than being seen as the primary solution to employment [4][13][28][32] - Over-reliance on government jobs is detrimental to the country and its youth, as the real work and innovation lie in the market [31][35] - Jobs are fundamentally created by fulfilling societal needs through the production of goods and services, not by government decree [16][17][34] - India's education system needs transformation to prioritize usable, employable skills, similar to South Korea and Germany [25][26][27][33] - A cultural shift is needed to value all productive work and focus on competence, not just job security within the government sector [33] Labor Market & Wage Disparity - Government jobs in India can absorb only about 1% of the annual influx of young people entering the job market (12 million/year), highlighting the limited capacity of the public sector [8] - In the past 8 years, only 720,000 people (7.2% of applicants) were selected for government jobs out of 220 million applicants [7] - Government wages in India are significantly higher (181 rupees for every 100 rupees in the private sector) for the same work, without corresponding outcomes [10][18] - A service delivery crisis exists in India, with the country ranking poorly on global indicators compared to other large economies [29][30][31]