Market Overview & Economic Outlook - Market experienced minor declines, around 1% or less, but this reflects recent market trends [1] - The economy maintains significant momentum, supported by GDP revisions [2] - AI super cycle continues to drive growth in mega-cap tech stocks [2] - A consolidation period is expected, but the strength of the economy and the AI sector suggest it won't be a major correction [3] Investment Strategy & Sector Focus - Today is generally a good day to invest for long-term goals like retirement, savings, and college [3] - For those nearing retirement, a more conservative approach focusing on dividend growth or dividend income stocks is advisable [4] - Healthcare sector is currently undervalued, trading at its lowest relative weight in the S&P since 1994, with big pharma trading at approximately a 30% discount to the S&P [8][10] - Healthcare sector is expected to be positively transformed by AI [11] Bull Market & Historical Context - Historically, bull markets have an average length of about 8 years; the current bull market is approximately 2 and a half years old since the Chat GPT lows in October/November 2022 [5] - The NASDAQ is trading about 12% above its 200-day moving average, which is less extended compared to the technology sector in 1999 [6] Risk Factors & Confidence Level - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, are concerning and could impact oil prices [14][15] - High confidence in avoiding a recession and limiting drawdowns to a maximum of 5-10% [16]

Rising geopolitical risk is set to test Poland’s robust economy and may dent the sovereign’s credit profile, according to Moody’s https://t.co/nAZEGYRlfn ...

Group 1: Gold Performance and Market Sentiment - Gold is on track for its second-best performance in the last 50 years, with an increase of over 43% as investors hedge against geopolitical and monetary risks [1] - Institutional allocations to gold remain low, with only 2.4% of fund managers' portfolios allocated to gold, despite its strong performance [3][4] - A significant 39% of fund managers reported having zero exposure to gold, while only 6% have allocations of 8% or more [4] Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Fund managers are heavily concentrated in equities, particularly technology stocks, with a net 28% overweight position in equities, the highest level since February [4] - Cryptocurrencies are also largely absent from institutional portfolios, with two-thirds of respondents reporting no allocation at all [5] - Risk perception is a key factor in the reluctance to allocate to gold and cryptocurrencies, with 26% of respondents citing a second wave of inflation as the most significant tail risk [5] Group 3: Central Bank Activity and Demand - Central bank purchases of gold were neutral in July, marking a pause after three years of record accumulation, where over 1,000 tons were added annually [7] - China continues to import non-monetary gold above the five-year average as part of its strategy to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar [8] - This steady flow of gold imports from China provides structural support for gold, even as institutional allocations lag [8]

and Tom Forte Maxim Group senior consumer internet analyst has a hold rating $21 price target on Apple. What are your expectations here Tom. Yeah so when you think about Apple's guidance for the September quarter they guided to mid-s singledigit to high singledigit revenue growth so clearly even before they announced the new iPhone 17 lineup they expected a strong performance.I think what's interesting from a tariff standpoint is they did take $100 of price on the Pro model, introduced a new product, the Ai ...

| | | 同王王 (how Sang Sang | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周生生 PROMESSA | MINTYGREEN | EMPHASIS | MARCO BICEGO | 劳力士 | 帝舵表 | | | | | | | 金价(人民币) | | 足金饰品 (每克 ) | | 英出 | | | 11091 | | | | 换金价 | | | 1951 | | | | 换珠宝价 | | | 1951 | | 950铂金饰品 (每克 ) | | 卖出 | | | ¥564 | | | | 换金价 | | | ¥453 | | 生生金宝 (每克 ) | | 卖出 | | | 1966 | 与此同时，国内金饰品牌价格也随之上涨，部分品牌涨至年内最高。中新经纬查询发现，9月16日，周生生金饰价格为1091元/克，为年内最高，较前一日 上涨17元；老庙黄金为1087元/克，为年内最高，单日上涨13元；老凤祥为1086元/克，为年内最高，单日上涨12元；周大福为1087元/克，单日上涨9元。 CHOW TAI FOOK 周 大 福 把"浙江之声" ...

北京时间本周四凌晨，美联储公布了最新利率决议，维持利率不变但释放关键鸽派信号。决议公布后， 黄金价格剧烈波动，最终站稳 2340 美元 / 盎司上方。这场全球瞩目的货币政策会议，将为黄金后市走 向提供哪些关键线索？投资者又该如何布局？ 一、美联储决议核心要点解读 本次会议释放了三个关键信号： 降息路径明确：点阵图显示 2024 年预计降息 1 次（3 月预期为 3 次），2025 年再降息 4 次 承认通胀进展：声明中新增 "通胀已有所缓解" 的表述，承认抗通胀取得进展 放缓缩表速度：从 6 月起将国债减持速度从每月 600 亿美元降至 250 亿美元 市场即时反应： 美元指数暴跌 0.8%，创一个月新低 黄金短线震荡后最终收涨，站稳 2340 关口 美债收益率全线下跌，2 年期收益率跌穿 4.75% 二、黄金多头狂欢的三大支撑 美联储决议为黄金提供了三重利好： 支撑一：实际利率下行趋势确立 美联储降息路径明确，意味着实际利率将进入下行通道 黄金与实际利率呈负相关，利率下行直接提升黄金吸引力 支撑二：美元走弱格局形成 美联储与其他主要央行（如欧央行）的政策差缩小 美元走弱使得以美元计价的黄金更便宜，刺激全球需 ...

The more things change, the more they stay the same. This year may have felt like a rollercoaster, with ups and downs in the market, the White House’s shifting tariff regime and bubbling geopolitical tensions. But while the world looks different than it did two years ago, ultra-rich family office clients are singing the same old risk-on tune. Globally, family office asset allocations today bear a striking resemblance to those of 2023, according to new Goldman Sachs data. Especially in hectic times, it’s b ...

Summary of Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the oil market dynamics, particularly focusing on OPEC's production policies and their impact on oil prices and supply-demand balance [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **OPEC Production Increase**: OPEC has unexpectedly increased production since April 2025, leading to a perception of oversupply in the market. The theoretical daily quota released is 2.46 million tons, but actual increments are limited due to geopolitical risks [1][4][6]. 2. **Oil Price Trends**: Following OPEC's announcement to continue increasing production in October, Brent crude prices initially fell but later showed resilience, indicating that the market has priced in the fundamentals adequately. The expectation is for oil prices to remain in a low range in 2025, with potential for a reversal in 2026 [2][5][6]. 3. **Supply-Demand Balance**: The current oil market is characterized by a temporary easing of supply risks, significant production pressure, and poor demand growth prospects. Prices are close to marginal cost levels, with a notable oversupply of approximately 1 million barrels per day earlier in the year [3][7][8]. 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: Geopolitical factors, particularly in the Middle East, have significantly influenced OPEC's production decisions. The conflict in the region has led to increased production levels, but the sustainability of this production is uncertain [4][14]. 5. **US Shale Oil Dynamics**: The US shale oil sector is facing challenges, with a reduction in the number of active drilling rigs and high depletion rates of existing wells. This has resulted in stagnation in shale oil production growth, with total production slightly declining to 9 million barrels per day [9][10][11]. 6. **Future Price Predictions**: The consensus is that the Brent crude price will find solid support around $60 per barrel, with a reasonable price range expected to be between $65 and $70 per barrel. The market is currently facing a supply surplus, which may lead to upward pressure on inventories [12][13]. 7. **Impact of Non-OPEC Supply**: Non-OPEC countries, particularly from offshore projects in Brazil, Guyana, and the US, are expected to contribute significantly to supply increases, further complicating the supply-demand balance [8][10]. Other Important Insights - The market's perception of oversupply is influenced by OPEC's production strategies and geopolitical developments, which could lead to significant price volatility in the future [6][14][15]. - The potential for a reversal in oil prices is contingent on changes in OPEC's production pace, North American shale supply trends, and unexpected global demand growth [2][6][14].

While the focus is on a potential government shutdown, my next guest says historically geopolitical risk has actually been conducive to growth, productivity, and asset returns overall. So, it's not a risk, it may actually be an opportunity. Joining me now is Marco Pepic.He's the macro and geopolitical strategist over at BCA Research. Uh, this is a perfect conversation to have right now, Marco, because we've just now heard the update from Megan with regard to trade and tariffs, the update from Emily with reg ...

Japan’s Defense Ministry requests a record $59.8 billion for its share of the national budget, to counter growing challenges from China and North Korea https://t.co/J4YStJ40oo ...