行情速递 / Part 01 ①大盘指数，科创50 (+1.78%)/创业板指(+1.32%)/深证成指(+0.86%)/北证50 (+0.50%)/上证指数(+0.05%)/ ②TMT领涨板块，SW分立器件(+4.23%)/SW数字芯片设计(+3.52%)/SW被动元件(+3.10%)/ ③TMT领跌板块，SW影视动漫制作(-6.56%)/SW大众出版(-4.04%)/SW教育出版(-1.54%)/ 国内新闻 / Part 02 ①半导体封测，摩尔线程首次公布S5000的硬件参数/支持FP8到FP64的全精度计算/其单卡AI算力（FP8）最高可达1 PFLOPS/显存容量为80GB/显存带宽达到1.6TB/s/卡间互联带宽为784GB/s/实测性能对标H100/ ②半导纵横，华虹25年营收24.021亿美元/毛利率为11.8%/在全球半导体市场受AI及其相关产品需求拉动、国内消费 类需求回暖的背景下/公司产能维持高位运行/全年平均产能利用率为106.1%/处于晶圆代工企业领先水平/ ③Counterpoint Research， 2026年1月中国智能手机销量同比下降 23%/大多国产品牌出现两位数同比下滑 ...

2026 年初的资本市场，显得有些拥挤。 如果你最近盯着科创板和港股的公告看，会发现一个很有趣的现象，中国的芯片公司正在排队敲钟。摩 尔线程正式挂牌，燧原科技紧随其后，甚至连大厂内部孵化多年的阿里平头哥、 百度昆仑芯 ，也纷纷 传出了分拆独立上市的消息。 这种场面，像极了当年互联网最狂热的时候。 但是，如果你仔细观察这些公司的故事，会发现一个尤其荒诞的现象。在面对投资人时，每一家都恨不 得把"中国英伟达"的字样写到PPT上，但在实际的业务闭门会上，他们却在拼命撕掉这个标签，走上一 条和英伟达完全相反的路。 这就是 2026 年中国芯片界最大的公开秘密，没人想做"中国英伟达"，但在上市之前，人人都得穿上这 件衣服。 这是一场关于IPO估值的精巧表演，也是一场关于生存的战略撤退。 这波芯片上市潮背后的真实算盘，到底是什么？ 1、人人都想穿上英伟达的马甲 为什么这些明明走着不同路径的公司，在宣传时非要挂着英伟达这三个字。 原因非常简单：为了拉高估值。 在资本市场的估值逻辑里，英伟达是神。它的毛利、市场占有率和 CUDA 生态带来的高护城河，让它 拥有了接近 40 倍甚至更高的市盈率。 对于一个中国芯片创业公司来说， ...

Core Insights - Intel Corporation (INTC) has outperformed the industry with a 24% gain over the past three months, while the industry declined by 6% [1] - The company has also surpassed competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm, which saw declines of 4.5% and 15.2% respectively during the same period [2] Performance and Demand - Intel is experiencing strong demand in the Data Center & AI segment, with revenues growing 15% sequentially and exceeding expectations [3] - The AI PC market is also a significant growth driver, with AI PC units increasing by 16% year over year [4] Challenges and Constraints - Despite strong demand, Intel is facing supply constraints and enters 2026 with depleted buffer inventory, limiting its ability to meet customer demand [5] - The foundry business reported an operating loss of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the early ramp of Intel 18A, which is still below internal yield targets [6] Financial Outlook - Intel's Client Computing Group (CCG) revenues decreased from $8.77 billion to $8.19 billion, driven by constrained supply despite solid data center demand [10] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 15.25% and 14.04% respectively, indicating bearish sentiment [13] Competitive Landscape - Intel faces stiff competition in the server, storage, and networking markets, particularly from NVIDIA in AI and from AMD in the commercial PC market [11] - Tariff-related uncertainties and geopolitical tensions with China pose additional risks to revenue prospects [12] Valuation Metrics - From a valuation perspective, Intel appears cheaper than the industry, trading at a price/sales ratio of 4.29 compared to the industry average of 17.78 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "Winner's Curse" in the context of the current AI infrastructure competition, highlighting the irrational exuberance in capital expenditures driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) rather than sound financial models [2][5][9]. Group 1: Winner's Curse in AI Infrastructure - The term "Winner's Curse" refers to the tendency of winning bidders in auctions to overpay due to optimistic valuations, which can lead to disappointing returns [2][3]. - In the AI infrastructure race, major tech companies are engaged in a capital bidding war, with reported capital expenditures reaching up to $400 billion by 2025 [5][7]. - The competition is characterized by a lack of rigorous cash flow models, with companies driven by the fear of falling behind rather than rational assessments of value [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The rapid increase in hardware prices, such as DRAM and high-performance memory, reflects the "Winner's Curse" as suppliers capitalize on the competitive bidding environment [7]. - The article draws parallels to historical events, such as the California Gold Rush, where the true beneficiaries were not the miners but those supplying tools and resources [7]. - The disparity between rising asset prices and struggling operational cash flows indicates a potential misalignment in market valuations [7][8]. Group 3: Talent Acquisition and Valuation - The "Winner's Curse" extends to the talent market, where companies are overpaying for top AI talent, often leading to overestimation of their marginal value [8]. - The rapid pace of technological advancement can render significant investments in talent obsolete before the return on investment is realized [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of having the ability to exit investments that no longer make sense, contrasting with the tendency to continue investing due to sunk cost fallacy [8][9].

Core Insights - The current state of the computing power market in China is characterized by extreme supply-demand imbalance, with high-end GPU chips like the Nvidia B200 being nearly invisible in the domestic market, leading to significant price increases for both high-end and mid-range GPUs [1][2][7] - The surge in demand for computing power coincides with the listing of several domestic AI chip companies, indicating a hot market environment at the beginning of 2026 [1][11] - Speculative investments have exacerbated market volatility, with some suppliers shifting from graphics cards to memory products due to higher profit margins and lower risks [4][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for computing power is currently high, but resources are scarce, leading to increased prices for GPUs and memory components [2][3] - Prices for DDR5 memory have surged over 300% since September 2025, with specific models now costing significantly more than they did just months prior [2][3] - The overall cost of building high-performance computing systems has escalated, with complete setups now reaching prices between 600,000 to 700,000 yuan [3][7] Market Trends - The influx of speculative capital has led to a chaotic market environment, with some channel suppliers engaging in practices that inflate prices artificially [4][5] - The emergence of counterfeit memory products has raised concerns about quality and reliability in the market [6] - Major cloud service providers are increasingly turning to domestic chip manufacturers as a response to supply shortages and rising costs of imported components [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to evolve into a multi-layered structure, where domestic chips will gain traction in specific applications, particularly in sectors requiring data security and autonomy [8][9] - The ongoing development of AI computing architectures aims to unify various hardware standards, potentially reducing dependency on imported GPUs [12][13] - The next two years are critical for domestic chip manufacturers to address technical challenges and improve product usability in order to capitalize on the growing market demand [11][14]

2026年，是"AI泡沫元年"？ 近期，全球科技股市剧烈波动，芯片价格暴涨，一年"烧钱"数万亿美元。当地时间1月21日，在瑞士达 沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上，英伟达CEO黄仁勋面对全球媒体，回应了持续数月的"美国AI泡沫"质疑 称："这并非泡沫，而是人类历史上规模最大的基础设施建设，还需要数万亿美元投资。" 黄仁勋话音刚落，1月22日，以重仓投资OpenAI著称的日股软银集团股价暴涨11.61%。 从"AI元年"到"泡沫元年"的资本狂飙 如今，全球AI浪潮进入第四年，时间线上标注着一系列"元年"。2022年，ChatGPT以最快用户破亿的速 度问世，被称为"AI元年"；2023年，"大模型元年"开启；2024年，"AI应用元年"到来；2025年，"AI智 能体元年"开启。而进入2026年，一个新的称谓正在形成——"AI泡沫元年"。 泡沫还是基石？黄仁勋将AI产业架构比作"五层蛋糕" 如今，全球资本高度集中于AI赛道，加剧了泡沫破灭的风险。从2025年底开始，投资者开始集体追 问："AI泡沫会不会破灭？" 值得注意的是，OpenAI、英伟达、甲骨文的"循环交易"加剧了市场对泡沫的担忧，英伟达对OpenAI进 行投 ...

证券日报网讯1月19日，沐曦股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，曦云C700系列采用国内先进工艺 制程，构建了从设计、制造到封装测试的国产供应链闭环，核心技术自主可控。曦云C700系列性能对 标H100，相较公司当前在售产品的计算能力、存储能力、通信能力及能效比等均大幅提升。 ...

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has shown significant stock performance, gaining 10.83% over the past month and achieving a 95.74% increase over the past year [1] - The company reported strong Q3 FY 2025 earnings, with EPS of $1.20 and revenue of $9.25 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [2] - AMD's data center revenue reached a record $4.3 billion, marking a 22% year-over-year increase, while client and gaming revenues saw substantial growth of 46% and 181% respectively [2] Financial Performance - AMD's revenue and net income have shown a positive trend over the years, with revenues increasing from $3.991 billion in 2015 to an expected $25.785 billion in 2024 [13] - The company reported a net income of $854 million in 2023, with projections indicating a rise to $1.64 billion in 2024 [13] Market Position and Strategy - AMD has gained a 45% market share in Japan's gaming chip market, with a target of reaching 70% [3] - The introduction of the Ryzen CPU in 2017 marked a significant turning point for AMD, allowing it to outperform Intel in speed and efficiency while being more cost-effective [4] - AMD's MI300 GPU is positioned as a competitor to Nvidia's H100, with a price point at 25% of Nvidia's offering, despite similar performance [8] Future Growth Drivers - The acquisition of ZT Systems for $4.9 billion is part of AMD's strategy to enhance its AI development capabilities [15] - The data center segment is projected to generate $12.6 billion in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 94% increase compared to 2023 [16] - AMD's stock price target for 2026 is set at $311.18, indicating a potential upside of 34.22% from current levels [18] Analyst Projections - Wall Street analysts have a consensus 12-month price target of $284.07 for AMD, with 24 out of 32 analysts rating it as a "Buy" [17] - Projections for EPS growth show an increase from $7.90 in 2026 to $13.21 by 2030, reflecting a strong upward trajectory [20]

格隆汇1月19日｜有投资者在互动平台向沐曦股份提问：公司的下一代产品C700系列在技术路线上有什 么重大突破？ 沐曦股份回复称，曦云C700系列采用国内先进工艺制程，构建了从设计、制造到封装测试的国产供应 链闭环，核心技术自主可控。曦云 C700 系列性能对标 H100，相较公司当前在售产品的计算能力、存 储能力、通信能力及能效比等均大幅提升。请注意投资风险。 ...

沐曦股份回复称，曦云C700系列采用国内先进工艺制程，构建了从设计、制造到封装测试的国产供应 链闭环，核心技术自主可控。曦云 C700 系列性能对标 H100，相较公司当前在售产品的计算能力、存 储能力、通信能力及能效比等均大幅提升。请注意投资风险。 格隆汇1月19日｜有投资者在互动平台向沐曦股份提问：公司的下一代产品C700系列在技术路线上有什 么重大突破？ ...