U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick addressed the licensing requirements governing Nvidia Corp.’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) sales of its advanced AI chips to China during a hearing on Tuesday. Lutnick stated that Nvidia must adhere to the detailed licensing terms for the sale of its second-most-advanced AI chip, the H200, to China, Reuters reported on Tuesday. He explained that the terms, which were developed in collaboration with the State Department, are detailed and non-negotiable. Don't Miss: Delays and Unce ...

photoman/iStock via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Tech Contrarians take on tech's tug of war between fear and greed (0:45) Software stock sell-off (2:45) Valuation concerns on Nvidia and others (9:10) Entry point alert example for Credo (17:00) What's going to happen with China? (18:30) Investing timelines (24:30) Transcript Rena Sherbill: Sara Awad from Tech Contrarians. Always great to talk to you on Investing Experts. Welcome back to the show. Sara Awad: Than ...

photoman/iStock via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Tech Contrarians take on tech's tug of war between fear and greed (0:45) Software stock sell-off (2:45) Valuation concerns on Nvidia and others (9:10) Entry point alert example for Credo (17:00) What's going to happen with China? (18:30) Investing timelines (24:30) Transcript Rena Sherbill: Sara Awad from Tech Contrarians. Always great to talk to you on Investing Experts. Welcome back to the show. Sara Awad: Than ...

Quick Read Does China Have AI Lead? China Could Have Cheapest AI Tech The AI Bubble Is Real A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. There is no chance we are in an AI bubble, according to the heads of companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), and OpenAI. If the US is completely at the center of the AI universe, that might be true. But, it isn’t The Semafor headline rea ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the AI and storage industry, particularly focusing on the optimization of agent execution processes and the implications of storage costs on AI performance. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Optimization in Agent Execution** - During the understanding phase, the most powerful models are used for planning agents, while various models are utilized in the execution phase to support operations. A tool matrix is employed to optimize resource allocation, saving computational power during inference by caching results. The cache hit rate can reach up to 67%, allowing for significant efficiency gains in processing similar queries [2][4]. 2. **Storage Architecture** - The storage system is structured in layers, including HBM, DRAM, and SSD, to manage hot, warm, and cold data effectively. This architecture is widely adopted in large companies [3]. 3. **Cache Hit Rate Dynamics** - The cache hit rate tends to improve with increased daily active users (DAU) and user engagement, but it approaches a ceiling of 60% to 70% due to the need for diverse responses in AI services [4]. 4. **Data Storage Practices** - For consumer users, data is modeled on an individual basis, but common queries can be identified. The system stores both questions and their corresponding key-value (KV) pairs to reduce computational load during the prefill phase [5][6]. 5. **Cost Efficiency in Computation** - The computational load is generally reduced from a potential 1:5 ratio to about 2-3 times due to storage optimizations, avoiding a simple linear relationship in resource consumption [7]. 6. **Rising Storage Costs** - The increase in storage prices, particularly for SSDs, is attributed to the demand for long-chain caching solutions. SSD prices are rising faster than DRAM, which serves as a bridge for data [8]. 7. **Log Storage and Data Lifecycle** - Logs are stored on HDDs, while KV pairs from inference processes are stored on SSDs. The lifecycle of KV data typically requires retention for at least 90 days for long-chain applications [11]. 8. **Impact of SSD Read/Write Frequency** - High read/write frequencies on SSDs do not significantly affect their lifespan, which is designed to handle several GBs of throughput per second [12]. 9. **Government Policies on Chip Imports** - Current policies regulate the import of advanced chips like H200, allowing only top enterprises engaged in large model training to apply for procurement, with a focus on narrowing the gap between domestic and foreign capabilities [15][16]. 10. **Economic Viability of Storage Solutions** - If SSD prices increase to 2-2.5 times their current levels, the cost-effectiveness of storage-based computation will be challenged. New technologies may emerge to mitigate these costs, but significant price hikes could necessitate a reevaluation of pricing strategies [17][21]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Supply Chain Strategies** - Companies are encouraged to diversify their supply chains to avoid reliance on overseas markets, especially in light of rising prices [20]. 2. **Technological Advancements in Cost Reduction** - Continuous advancements in AI infrastructure are crucial for reducing inference costs, which is a key focus for cloud service providers [14]. 3. **Market Dynamics and Future Predictions** - The market is expected to see a shift in the balance of GPU and storage costs, which will influence the overall cost structure of AI applications [21].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report strong quarterly earnings, with Goldman Sachs predicting a revenue surprise of approximately $2 billion, driven by high demand for AI chips despite increasing competition from AMD and Broadcom [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts forecast Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to reach $67.3 billion, which is 8% above market expectations for the first quarter [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth and first quarters will exceed market expectations by 5% and 9%, respectively [2]. Market Sentiment - There are concerns that the strong quarterly results may already be priced into Nvidia's stock, shifting investor focus to the company's guidance for 2026 and 2027 [3]. - Nvidia's share price has decreased by 13% from its peak last fall, indicating potential investor caution [2]. Industry Dynamics - The demand for Nvidia's GPUs surged following the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2022, leading to significant earnings beats and higher guidance [4]. - Most investment portfolios now include Nvidia, resulting in less capital available to drive prices higher [4]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the upside potential for Nvidia's estimates for 2026 is largely reflected in the current stock price, and future stock performance will depend on revenue visibility for 2027 [5]. - The firm has set a stock price target of $250 for Nvidia, representing a 35% upside from the closing price on February 6 [6]. Catalysts for Growth - Major data centers, or hyperscalers, are projected to increase capital expenditures to over $527 billion, up from $394 billion in 2025, which could benefit Nvidia [7]. - Nvidia's datacenter revenue guidance of $500 billion through 2026 is considered conservative by Goldman Sachs, which anticipates positive catalysts from visibility into 2027 [9]. - Demand from large-language model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic is expected to ramp up, with initial signs of execution from OpenAI being a positive indicator [9]. - Nvidia's competitive position may be bolstered by its CUDA technology, which could help mitigate competition from ASIC chips developed by Broadcom and Marvell Tech, as well as AMD's MI455X [9]. - Recent easing of restrictions in China could lead to a resurgence in demand, which previously accounted for over 20% of Nvidia's revenue [9]. - The launch of Nvidia's new chip, Rubin, is anticipated to enhance performance and efficiency, with production already underway [9].

寒武纪，曾经风光无限，股价一度超过贵州茅台，被称作"股王"。 但现在，它的股价在过去一个月里，从1500元一路砸到了1058元，跌幅超过30%。 曾经 它超越茅台，如今茅台稳稳站在1500元以上，它却跌回了茅台脚下。 摩尔线程更惨，从去年12月941元的高点，跌到了现在的539元，跌幅超过40%，而且 下跌的速度越来越快。 最晚上市的沐曦股份，几乎是上市即巅峰，股价从895元一路向下，直奔490元，距离腰斩只有一步之遥。 略。 但当市场风声鹤唳时，每一个弱点都会被无限放大。 最近A股的科技圈，可以说是寒气逼人。 如果你关注芯片和AI，肯定会注意到一个扎心的现象：去年那些被捧上天的"国产GPU希望之星"，股价正在集体上 演高台跳水。 最引人注目的就是三家：寒武纪、摩尔线程和沐曦股份。 这不是个别股票的调整，而是整个板块的溃退。 就在2月4日一天，AI算力芯片板块的主力资金净流出就高达24.54亿元。 人们都在问，那个激动人心的科技 牛市结束了吗？ 为什么这些顶着"国产替代"、"AI核心"光环的明星公司，说崩就崩了？ 答案，可能就藏在它们火热的梦想和冰冷的现实之间，那道越来越 宽的裂缝里。 我们先看看寒武纪。 这 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 金融产品深度报告 20260202 恒生科技 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘及 2026 年 2 月展望 [Table_Summary] ◼ 市场表现回顾： ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的事 件。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《金银暴跌后，沃什交易的误区何时 逆转？——海外宏观与交易复盘 》 2026-02-01 《春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰 动》 | 1. 市场表现回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | | 1.1. 走势复盘 4 | | | 1.2. 估值分析 5 | | | 1.3. 技术分析 6 | | 2. 事件驱动 | 7 | | | 2.1. 宏观层面 7 | | | 2.2. 政策层面 11 | | | 2.3. 行业动态 12 | | 3. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market, specifically the MXCN and CSI300 indices, which saw a gain of 1% and remained flat (+0.1%) respectively this week [1][1]. - Industrial profits in China increased by 4.9% year-over-year (yoy) in December, while revenue fell by 5.7% yoy [1][1]. Core Insights - **Economic Meetings**: President Xi met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss a long-term strategic partnership [1][1]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5-3.75% during its January meeting [1][1]. - **Market Sentiment**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) Q4 surveys indicated lower loan demand but a slight increase in consumer willingness and improved employment sentiment [1][1]. - **Investment Flows**: Southbound Connect recorded US$0.3 billion in inflows this week, with a year-to-date total of US$9 billion [3][3]. Earnings and Valuations - **Forward P/E Ratios**: The MXCN and CSI300 have 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.8x and 14.7x respectively [8][8]. - **Earnings Growth Projections**: The I/B/E/S consensus estimates for 2025/26 EPS growth are 4%/14% for MXCN and 14%/15% for CSI300 [8][8]. - **Sector Performance**: Energy and Materials sectors were revised upwards, while Health Care and Growth sectors lagged behind [7][7]. Market Expectations - **GDP Growth**: More than half of investors expect China's annualized real GDP growth to average between 4-5% from 2026 to 2030 [9][9]. - **House Prices**: Most respondents believe that Chinese house prices will bottom out in 2028 or later [11][11]. - **PPI Inflation**: The majority expect China's Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation to end in 2027 or later [14][14]. - **Currency Forecast**: Most respondents anticipate the USDCNY to settle between 6.80-7 by year-end, with the current rate at 6.96 [15][15]. Investment Themes - **Preferred Investment Themes**: AI is identified as the most favored investment theme for 2026, with 68% of respondents supporting this view [28][28]. - **Return Expectations**: Nearly half of the respondents expect approximately a 10% return for MSCI China in 2026, with another half expecting over 20% [20][20]. Fund Performance - **Mutual Fund Performance**: In January, emerging market (EM) and Asia funds gained around 9-10%, while China-focused funds rose only 5% [31][31]. - **China Fund Allocations**: China's active allocation in mutual funds globally was flat in December, ending at 6.6%, which is in the 18th percentile over the past 10 years [33][33]. Profit Alerts - **Profit Alerts**: 42% of profit alerts for CY/4Q25 indicate a positive outlook, compared to 34% in CY/4Q24 [44][44]. - **Sector-Specific Alerts**: Positive profit alerts were concentrated in Materials, Tech Hardware, and Capital Goods sectors [46][46]. Market Rotation - **A-H Share Rotation**: The A-H rotation model suggests that H shares are likely to modestly outperform A shares in the next three months [51][51]. Policy and Regulation - **Policy Stance**: Recent analysis indicates that policy towards private-owned enterprises (POEs) has turned less accommodating [53][53]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations for the Chinese market and economy.

不久前，关于H200订单排到春节前的消息还在满天飞。但最近，剧情似乎又发生了变化。没想到，芯 片圈也能跟追剧一样，剧情跌宕起伏，反转、反转再反转！ 可能很多人都忘了，在H200之前，英伟达能供应给中国的AI芯片，有且只有一款，那就是H20。英伟达 将它称之为"中国特供版"，而简单来说就是，性能被阉割的版本，除了中国，H20这款芯片在全世界可 能都没人要，已经可以归类为"过时淘汰款"。 但戏剧化的一幕发生了，那就是，即使是"淘汰"芯片，特朗普也要禁止供应。这就有了H20被"卡脖"事 件，其直接影响就是，短短几个月时间，英伟达在中国市场的份额从95%直接归0，没错，一点也不夸 张，收获了3个"大鸭蛋"，订单0、营业额0、份额0。 在这个大背景之下，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋多次访华，且不止一次的公开"警告"或"劝说"美国，这种"卡 脖"行为最终影响的只会是美企，反而会激励中国加速国产替代。或许是看到了华为晟腾以及寒武纪等 国内芯片企业的崛起，令美国有了真实的危机感，特朗普直接变脸，竟直接跳过H20，允许H200向中国 出口。 这里需要说明一下的是，H200就不再是阉割版芯片了，虽然不是英伟达最先进的AI芯片，但也算是次 ...