Economic Environment - Inflation in Australia is growing at approximately double the rate of economic growth, creating pressure on households and contributing to inflationary pressures in housing and energy markets [1] Company Strategy - The company is recognized for its everyday low prices in Australia and New Zealand, which helps maintain customer trust during challenging economic times [2][3] - A focus on productivity and expanding addressable markets through new product categories is central to the company's strategy [2] Partnerships and Technology - The company has formed strategic partnerships with Google Cloud and Microsoft to enhance operational efficiency and productivity through technology [5] - Initiatives include improving customer service and team member effectiveness in stores, as well as enhancing merchandising and supply chain processes [6] Lithium Business - The company's lithium project is progressing well, with the mine and concentrator performing effectively, and expectations for increased profitability in the second half of the year [9][10] - The company aims to become a reliable supplier of lithium hydroxide, despite some delays in the refinery commissioning process [10] Financial Management - The company maintains a strong balance sheet to ensure financial flexibility for future investments and potential M&A opportunities [11] - There is a commitment to disciplined capital investment, focusing on value-adding opportunities for shareholders [13] Growth Opportunities - The company anticipates continued positive earnings momentum in its retail businesses, with growth expected in Bunnings, Office Works, and Kmart [15] - Future growth is also expected in the lithium business, chemical manufacturing capacity, and the health division, with a well-positioned balance sheet for new opportunities [16][17]

Key TakeawaysChina grants South Africa 100% zero-tariff access to its markets starting May 1, 2026, notably waiving the requirement for reciprocal tariff cuts from Pretoria.The European Central Bank (ECB) released its Economic Bulletin today, confirming that Eurozone inflation has cooled to 1.7%, though officials remain "prudent" due to geopolitical risks.Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak today, with markets focused on Bowman’s recent ...

2025年，一项别具一格却极具深意的经济观察报告——《黄金与慕尼黑啤酒节啤酒比率报告》再次引发市场关注。 这份由知名投资研究机构Incrementum发布的年度趣味经济指标显示：1盎司黄金在2025年可购买186升（Maß）慕尼黑啤酒节的啤酒，创下自1981年以 来的新高，较2024年的148升大幅增长25.7%，相比2023年更是飙升了56.3%。 这一数据不仅是一次轻松幽默的节日致敬，更深刻揭示了当前全球货币环境与资产价值的真实购买力变迁。 报告显示，2025年慕尼黑啤酒节一杯1升装啤酒的价格已上涨至最高15.80欧元，同比涨幅达3.3%，相较于2019年累计涨幅超过三分之一。 过去几年中，德国食品价格整体上涨32%，远高于欧盟29%的平均水平，啤酒价格也难以独善其身。 自1950年以来，慕尼黑啤酒节的平均年化通胀率高达4.0%。 然而，与普通消费者面对物价上涨的无奈形成鲜明对比的是，黄金投资者正迎来前所未有的"购买力狂欢"。 推动这一比率飙升的核心因素并非啤酒降价，而是黄金价格的强劲上涨。 截至2025年8月底，黄金价格已达2950欧元/盎司，较2024年同期的2266欧元暴涨30.2%。 今年5月，金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve's research indicates that U.S. businesses and consumers bear the majority of the burden from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to significant criticism from White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, who labeled the findings as an embarrassment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Tariff Burden - The New York Fed's research found that U.S. businesses and consumers are responsible for 86% of the tariff burden, while foreign exports account for 14% as of November 2025 [2]. - The share of the burden on U.S. businesses and consumers decreased from 94% in the January to August period to 92% in September and October [2]. Average Tariff Rates - The average tariff rate increased significantly from 2.6% at the beginning of 2025 to 13% by the end of the year, peaking at around 16% in April and May following the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs [5]. Economic Impact - The New York Fed's findings align with other studies indicating that American importers are absorbing nearly all tariff costs, with the bulk of the incidence falling on U.S. firms and consumers [6]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that U.S. businesses would pass on approximately 70% of their tariff costs to consumers, with the remaining 30% affecting profit margins [10]. - The CBO projected that the new tariffs would increase the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index by about 0.8 percentage points by the end of 2026, with current PCE inflation at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [11]. Defense of Tariffs - Hassett defended the Trump administration's tariffs, claiming that they have benefitted American consumers by reducing prices and increasing real wages by an average of $1,400 last year [12].

Core Insights - The Fed's inflation benchmark is expected to worsen, with consumer prices measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) projected to rise 2.8% over the 12 months through December, and core PCE forecasted to increase to 3.0% from 2.8% in November [1][2][7] - The anticipated rise in core PCE inflation is significant as it is the measure the Federal Reserve uses to assess its 2% annual inflation target [2][4] - Financial markets are currently predicting a quarter-point cut in the Fed's key fed funds rate by June, but clarity on inflation trends is needed before any rate cuts can be made [5][6] Economic Implications - Persistently high inflation is negatively impacting household budgets and maintaining elevated interest rates [3] - Some economists, such as those at Goldman Sachs, predict that the annual PCE measure will continue to rise as companies pass on tariff costs to consumers, with core PCE potentially reaching 3.05%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - The Federal Reserve will closely monitor upcoming inflation data, particularly PCE, to determine whether to lower borrowing costs to stimulate the job market or maintain higher rates to control inflation [4][6]

Federal Reserve policymakers were mostly in agreement on the decision to leave interest rates unchanged despite two calling for cuts, though several signaled that rate hikes could be on deck if inflation remains elevated. The minutes for the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's monetary policy-setting panel, were released on Wednesday and showed that some policymakers were in favor of including language signaling the possibility of future rate hikes to tame stubborn inflati ...

Join our daily newsletter At The Bell to receive exclusive market insightsASX today — It’s a busy reporting day today, with more than 30 ASX-listed companies scheduled to share results, including blue-chip heavyweights like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Telstra (ASX:TLS), and Wesfarmers (ASX:WES).Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.The ASX is headed for a rise as we wade through all the reporting, hel ...

Here's the headline in a very newsy set of minutes. Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. The focus of the January meeting on inflation, largely rather than jobs and concern that bringing it down had stalled.Officials anticipated inflation would move down this year, but the pace and timing remained uncertain. The continuing rise in prices ...

Many Federal Reserve officials want to see inflation fall further before they would support additional interest rate cuts this year, particularly if the job market continues to stabilize, minutes of last month’s meeting show.The “vast majority” of the 19 participants on the Fed’s rate-setting committee said that there were signs the job market has stabilized, after the unemployment rate rose in late 2025, the minutes said. And most of the officials agreed that the Fed’s key rate is close to a level that nei ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate levels for an extended period unless there is a rapid decline in the labor market or a significant decrease in inflation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates is contingent on labor market conditions and inflation trends [1] - Current economic indicators suggest stability, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]